The Detroit Lions are underrated.
It isn’t complicated to figure out why that is.
The franchise has one playoff win since 1957.
The Lions are talented and deep and consistent.
However, they don’t have a superstar QB like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, even if Jared Goff has produced at a top 10 level over the last couple of seasons.
Plus, in the modern world of AI and analytics, even the casual fan is willing to overlook the bottom line.
Once upon a time, all that mattered was wins and losses.
Now, culture, grit, and discipline often get dismissed in favour of advanced analytics that can be cherry-picked at will to force a narrative.
That’s how we get to critics spending an entire off-season and the first two weeks of this NFL season writing off head coach Dan Campbell without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, then go dark when the Lions score 34+ points in four consecutive wins and climb to the top of the NFL standings.
You know, the same place they finished last season?
Detroit leads the NFL at 34.8 points per game.
Believe it or not, the Lions are averaging more points per game, with fewer turnovers per game, and scoring a TD on more redzone drives under offensive coordinator John Morton this season than they did under Johnson.
Did you notice what I did there?
Goff leads the NFL with a 75.2 per cent completion rate and 12 touchdown passes this season.
Goff is 2-0 head-to-head versus Mahomes all-time
He’s the only QB in the NFL that has started multiple games against Mahomes without a loss.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (six), Jahmyr Gibbs (five), and David Montgomery (four) have all scored four or more TDs.
The Lions have won and covered four in a row, and yet they’ll be a small underdog when they visit Mahomes and the 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
However, Kansas City has already lost more games than it did all last season, and no matter how good Detroit has looked, most people I’ve asked still think the Chiefs will find a way to win at home on Sunday Night Football.
Injuries are certainly a part of the equation.
It’s disappointing that Detroit won’t be at full strength as they make the trip to Kansas City.
The Lions haven’t got the respect they deserve, and everybody who has doubted them will double down if they lose tonight.
The Chiefs are now a 2.5-point favourite at FanDuel.
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game went either way.
The one thing I do expect is a high-scoring game, which is reflected by the highest total on the board for Sunday’s NFL games at 52.5 at FanDuel.
With that in mind, there are some props I’ve circled as worthy of FanDuel Best Bets for Sunday Night Football.
I’ll start with Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton.
While he isn’t exactly a household name, Kansas City added Thornton as a burner that could help them stretch the field along with Xavier Worthy and open more space for Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and Travis Kelce to operate underneath.
The biggest issue for the Chiefs’ offence in recent years has been their lack of speed, which management has addressed with the additions of Worthy, Brown, and Thornton at wide receiver.
With Rice suspended and Worthy banged up early on, Thornton has stepped up with 41 or more receiving yards in four of five games this season.
Last week, Thornton popped for a season-high 90 yards on three targets, including a 34-yard reception.
Perhaps even more impressively, he almost caught Devin Lloyd on this pick-six.
The 25-year-old has four or more targets in four of five games.
He also has a reception of 33 or more yards in four of five games.
Now he gets to face a banged-up Lions secondary that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers lined up on the outside.
While last week’s 45 per cent snap share isn’t the most appealing, Thornton might only need one reception to go over 22.5 receiving yards for the fifth time in six games.
I like Thornton 23 or more receiving yards as a best bet.
For the Lions, I like Amon-Ra St. Brown 70 or more receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.
St. Brown has gone for 70 or more receiving yards in four straight games, averaging 7.8 receptions for 90.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.
Yes, 1.5 touchdowns – he’s scored six in four games!
The veteran wide receiver has absolutely dominated early on, and he should draw a favourable matchup this week working the middle of the field as a target machine.
Last week, St. Brown joined Davante Adams, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice as the fourth player in the last 40 years to lead the league in touchdown receptions for the NFL’s top ranked scoring offence.
This week, I’ll lock in St. Brown 70 or more receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet, but how can I bet his anytime TD prop when the number is +105?!
Seriously, the Lions have three players – St. Brown, Gibbs, and Montgomery with an anytime TD prop at +105 or worse – a testament to the talent and finishing ability of that trio.
With the total for Sunday Night Football at 52.5, maybe all three of them get into the end zone again.
I’ll stick with St. Brown 70 or more receiving yards and Thornton 23 or more receiving yards as FanDuel Best Bets.
Speaking of high numbers, I was disappointed to see Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop drop from 100.5 at one notable sportsbook this week.
In fact, Nacua’s receiving yards prop is down to 93.5 at FanDuel – the best number in market for anybody looking to bet the over and the worst number for anybody looking to bet the under against the Baltimore Ravens.
Nacua leads the NFL in targets (62), receptions (52), and receiving yards (588) this season.
He’s averaged 10.4 receptions for 117.6 yards on 12.4 targets per game through his first five games.
Nacua already has the most receptions through five games in NFL history and he is on pace to break the single-season receptions record with 177 this season.
Opposing slot receivers have feasted on the Ravens defence this season.
Now Baltimore will have to deal with the NFL’s best.
The question now becomes when does he slow down?
The weather conditions call for rain in Baltimore this afternoon, and the Rams have the potential to dominate with Lamar Jackson still sidelined for the Ravens.
I’ll pass on betting Nacua’s 93.5 receiving yards prop.
Eventually, Nacua will slow down, and it might just be this afternoon in Baltimore.
However, Nacua has looked completely dominant early on and has a favourable matchup against the Ravens, so it’s hard for me to justify playing his under as a best bet.
On the flip side, I jumped on Rico Dowdle over 15.5 receiving yards as a number that I feel much more comfortable locking in as a FanDuel Best Bet.
The Carolina Panthers elevated Dowdle to RB1 following an injury to Chuba Hubbard, and he responded with 23 carries for 206 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win over the Miami Dolphins.
Dowdle added three catches for 28 yards on four targets in his first game as the starter in Carolina.
Now the former Dallas Cowboys running back gets a potential revenge spot against his former team.
It should help that Dallas has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing running backs in the NFL this season.
The Panthers are a three-point underdog at home.
I bet the Cowboys to win and cover.
I also bet Dowdle over 15.5 receiving.
Why do I like Dallas to win and cover in a game I think Dowdle could shine in?
With Dak Prescott back at QB, the Cowboys have the No. 1 total offence in the NFL this season.
Dallas should be able to move the football efficiently through the air again with George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Ryan Flournoy.
I don’t trust either defence in this game, but I trust Dak and a high-powered offence versus Bryce Young.
I also trust Jake Ferguson to go over 5.5 receptions again this week.
If you’ve followed me long enough, you know I tend to ride with players for an extended period if they continue to reward me.
Ferguson has recorded seven or more receptions in four straight games.
Now he faces a Carolina defence that just got torched by Darren Waller for 78 yards on five catches last week.
Ferguson should stay hot in a Cowboys win.
I’ll also jump on Ferguson over 47.5 receiving yards in a great matchup.
With CeeDee Lamb still sidelined, give me Ryan Flournoy to deliver another strong performance after he stepped up with six catches for 114 yards in last week’s win over the New York Jets as one final play for this game.
I’ll add Flournoy over 32.5 receiving as a best bet.
Speaking of players I’m riding with again this week, you’ll notice some familiar names below, including Rashid Shaheed and Stefon Diggs.
First up, I’ll start with one of my favourite players this season - New York Jets rookie tight end Mason Taylor.
We climbed the ladder with Taylor a couple of weeks ago when he went off with five catches for 65 yards in a loss to the Miami Dolphins.
We doubled down last week when he had nine catches for 67 yards on 12 targets in a loss to the Cowboys.
Taylor will face a much tougher match-up this week versus the Denver Broncos in the NFL International Game, but I like him get 35 or more receiving yards.
The Jets don’t have a legitimate No. 2 wide receiver that can step up behind Garrett Wilson in the passing game.
With Patrick Surtain blanketing Wilson on Sunday, Justin Fields will need somebody else to step up.
Taylor has been a target machine the past couple of weeks, including in garbage time when he made several grabs after the Jets fell behind against both the Dolphins and Cowboys.
That trend could continue this week versus Denver.
I’ll keep riding with Taylor and bet over 3.5 receptions against the Broncos.
Here are the rest of my best bets for NFL Sunday…
DP’S FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Sunday Week 6
NFL International Game
Mason Taylor over 3.5 receptions
YourWay SGP +100: Broncos Win + Engram 18 or more receiving yards
1 PM ET Slate
Rico Dowdle over 15.5 receiving yards
Jake Ferguson over 5.5 receptions
Jake Ferguson over 47.5 receiving yards
Ryan Flournoy over 32.5 receiving yards
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Carolina Panthers
DK Metcalf over 55.5 receiving yards
Rashid Shaheed over 43.5 receiving yards
Stefon Diggs 60 or more receiving yards
ML Parlay -118: Colts Win, Patriots Win
4 PM ET Slate
Tucker Kraft over 46.5 receiving yards
Emanuel Wilson over 18.5 rushing yards
Emeka Egbuka over 74.5 receiving yards
Travis Hunter over 34.5 receiving yards
Tory Horton over 21.5 receiving yards
A.J. Barner over 24.5 receiving yards
Sunday Night Football
Amon-Ra St. Brown 70 or more receiving yards
Tyquan Thornton 23 or more receiving yards
Monday Night Football
Luke McCaffrey over 20.5 receiving yards
