The official midway mark of the NFL season is in sight.
It’s somewhat poetic that we will wrap the first half with the cleanest collision of styles the schedule has produced so far.
The Buffalo Bills lead the NFL in scoring (33.3), offensive yards per game (393.1), and they are tied for the league’s best record at 6-1.
The Minnesota Vikings are also 6-1 and own the league’s stingiest defence at 13.3 points allowed per game.
It’s the first time that two teams tied for the best record in the league have met in November or later since 2023, and only the fifth such matchup in the last 15 seasons.
In three of the previous four, the winner went on to play in the Super Bowl.
The Bills are a co-favourite to win the Super Bowl at +600 at FanDuel this morning, next to the San Francisco 49ers.
Minnesota is much further down that list at +2500.
In fact, 11 teams currently have shorter odds to win it all than the Vikings, including all three of their NFC North division rivals in the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, and the Green Bay Packers.
The NFC North features exactly one third of the top 12 Super Bowl contenders at FanDuel, and as impressive as Minnesota’s defence has looked to date, there are lingering concerns about an offence that ranks 27th in the NFL with an average of 20.0 points per game this season.
Adding to that concern is the fact that Kyler Murray is out again tonight due to a hamstring injury.
Veteran Carson Wentz will get the start versus Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Bills turn to MVP favourite Josh Allen, who faces perhaps his toughest test of the season.
While most the league’s highest scoring offences have featured dominant No. 1 wide receivers, Buffalo has outscored them all as the clear exception to the rule thanks in large part to their quarterback.
Will Allen lead the Bills to a primetime win with another vintage performance tonight in Minnesota?
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for the Week 9 finale in this Morning Coffee column for Monday November 9th, 2026.
Will Josh Allen Add To MVP Resume Versus NFL’s Best Defence?
Allen is the first quarterback in NFL history with at least eight touchdown passes and eight rushing touchdowns in his team’s first seven games.
His nine rushing scores are tied for the most by any quarterback through seven games since 1950.
Bears running back D’Andre Swift is the only player in the NFL with more rushing touchdowns than Allen, and he’s played two more games.
In addition to 38.6 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing scores, Allen has averaged 256.1 passing yards, thrown 11 TD passes, and posted the NFL’s fourth-best QBR (76.3).
Perhaps the most fascinating detail of the Bills offence is their ability to generate explosive plays without an elite No. 1 wide receiver.
James Cook ranks third in the NFL with an average of 101.0 rushing yards per game and has scored one or more touchdowns in six straight games.
Buffalo’s running backs ranks second in the NFL in explosive run percentage with a 16.3 per cent mark.
That number climbs to an NFL-best 18.1 per cent explosive rate when we include both RB and QB runs.
Meanwhile, only Jordan Love had more completions of 25 or more yards (21) than Allen (20) entering Week 9.
Christian Watson and Matthew Golden had combined for 37 targets thrown 20 or more yards downfield over the first eight weeks of the NFL season.
Nobody on the Bills roster had more than eight such targets, while five different players had two or more.
Josh Palmer leads Buffalo with eight deep targets but will miss tonight’s game with a hamstring injury.
Keon Coleman is second with seven deep targets but was limited in practice all week with a shoulder injury.
D.J. Moore, who leads all Bills wide receivers with 52.0 receiving yards per game in five contests, has five deep targets and was also limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury.
Tight End Dalton Kincaid had led Buffalo with 57.3 receiving yards per game and has five deep targets.
Khalil Shakir has only two deep targets but has averaged 50.6 receiving yards on 3.9 receptions per game.
Most NFL offences that score at an elite rate lean on at least one dominant wide receiver.
The fact that Buffalo doesn’t have a true No. 1 receiver like Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb makes their production that much more impressive.
Of course, there is a flip side to that coin.
Allen has thrown five interceptions in his past five games, and inconsistency has been an issue during stretches.
Allen is the MVP favourite for a reason, but I still have concerns about whether he can carry the Bills to a Super Bowl without more help at the skill positions.
Tonight’s clash with the Vikings should be a good test.
Brian Flores’ defence blitzes at a 71.5 per cent rate, which is on pace for the highest mark by any team over the last 20 seasons.
The gap between the Vikings and the second-highest blitz rate is bigger than the gap between 2nd and 32nd.
Minnesota leads the NFL in pressure rate and has forced opponents into the lowest pass rate over expectation.
It’s worth highlighting that Shakir leads all Bills receivers in target rate and yards per route run versus the blitz.
Meanwhile, Cook leads Buffalo with a 0.31 target rate versus the blitz, while fellow running back Ty Johnson ranks fourth on the team with a 0.25 target rate.
Additionally, Buffalo plays a ton of 13 personnel, which means one running back and three tight ends.
In their first loss of the season to the Lions last week, the Vikings gave up 230 rushing yards and a score, including 153 to Jahmyr Gibbs in a primarily zone concept scheme.
The Bills operate a heavy man-gap run concept scheme, and Cook leads the NFL with 62.0 rushing yards per game in that scheme.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has allowed a league-high 5.53 yards per carry versus runs in that man-gap concept scheme, including a whopping 10.75 yards per carry in a narrow 15-10 win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 4.
Cook has cleared 80 or more rushing yards in five of his last six games, including exactly 80 on 21 attempts in last week’s win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Ray Davis and Ty Johnson were more involved in that blowout win over Baltimore and it will be interesting to see how the snaps are split tonight in Minnesota.
The Bills have a massive edge at quarterback.
As impressive as the Vikings have looked this season, I believe Allen and Cook can Buffalo to a win tonight.
I’ll go with Bills -3 as my FanDuel Best Bet.
I’ll also add Cook over 79.5 rushing yards and Shakir over 37.5 receiving yards to my Monday Night Football card.
Hopefully, we can end the week on a high note.
Have a great day, everyone!