A Numbers Game: Spain, Japan expected to advance to Women’s World Cup Quarters

The stakes are set to get a little bit higher for yours truly betting on the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup at FanDuel entering the Round of 16.

After a disappointing start, I finished the group stage on fire with the FanDuel Best Bets in this column.

As the games start to wind down, so do the opportunities to make a profit betting on this event as we look to finish the tournament with a winning record.

The good news is that the field has been concentrated and we have some pretty good data to work with when it comes to handicapping the Round of 16.

The bad news is that my favourite player in the tournament is already headed home following a shocking result in the group stage.

If you’ve been following along with the FanDuel Best Bets in this column, then you already know who I’m talking about.

Alexandra Popp, anytime goal scorer, went 3-for-3 in the group stage.

Popp is tied for the tournament lead with four goals.

However, a surprisingly early exit for Germany means that she won’t have another opportunity to add to her goal total, while Hinata Miyazawa, Lauren James, Jill Roord and others attempt to lead their countries to glory.

I relied on Popp, anytime goal scorer, to cash three FanDuel Best Bet winners in the group stage.

Now, I’ll need to find another scorer or two to help me finish the Women’s World Cup on a high note.

For the first wave of Round of 16 games, I’m going to try to thread the needle with a Same Game Parlay+ at FanDuel that I think has the potential to cash.

First up, let’s start with a Same Game Parlay that features Japan to advance in a low-scoring contest against Norway (4 am ET/1 am PT on TSN, TSN.ca and the TSN App) early Saturday.

Japan is currently -300 to advance to the quarter-finals.

One of the surprises of the tournament, Japan’s odds to win it all have been cut from +3400 to +850 since the Women’s World Cup kicked off on July 20.

Norway underwhelmed in the group stage but won’t be an easy out in an elimination game.

While they outscored the Philippines 6-0 in their lone win of the group stage last Sunday, their other two results were a 1-0 loss to New Zealand and a scoreless draw with Switzerland.

Japan scored five goals versus Zambia, two goals versus Costa Rica and four goals versus Spain in three group stage wins.

I’ll take Japan to advance and the over 1.5 total goals in that match to begin my Same Game Parlay+.

For the final leg, I’ll take Spain to advance.

A blowout loss to Japan should serve as the wake-up call that Spain needed entering the Round of 16.

Spain had no problem securing its first two wins of the tournament versus Costa Rica and Zambia by a combined 8-0 score.

I think they live up to expectations as a -800 favourite to advance in a match versus Switzerland in the Round of 16 (1 am ET Saturday/10 pm PT Friday on TSN, TSN.ca and the TSN App).

A Same Game Parlay+ with Spain to advance, Japan to advance, and the over 1.5 total goals in the match between Japan and Norway is +106 at FanDuel.

I’ll lock in that Same Game Parlay+ as my FanDuel Best Bet for the first wave of Women’s World Cup Round of 16 games on TSN.