Battle of Ontario: Sens’ favoruites to force a Game 7
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For the first time all series, the Ottawa Senators are the betting favoruites on FanDuel to force a Game 7 Thursday night.
After losing the first three games of the series, Ottawa’s number to advance to the second round ballooned to +1400 and they were +650 to force a Game 7.
Ottawa is now just +310 to become the fifth team in NHL history to comeback from a 0-3 series deficit. A win tonight would make them just the seventh team in league history to force a Game 7 after dropping the opening three games of a series.
Odds to advance
| Team | After Game 3 | After Game 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto | -1400 | -400 |
| Ottawa | +1400 | +310 |
As Domenic Padula, TSN’s Senior Sports Betting Analyst, pointed out in Morning Coffee today the Leafs have received 63 per cent of bets at FanDuel to win Game 6.
Before the puck gets dropped on Game 6, let's take a look at Toronto's previous chances to close out a series and get a best bet from Mr. Padula.
THE BEST BET IN SPORTS?
By now you have seen the stat, Toronto is 1-13 in their last 14 potential playoff series-clinching games dating back to 2018.
While some wonder how that’s possible, I wonder how much money I have missed out on not fading them in those 14 games.
Here is a look at how much money money someone would be up if they bet $10 against the Leafs in those 14 games.
Fading Toronto is a series-clinching playoff game
| Year | Team | Game | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Bruins | Game 7 | -170 | $5.88 |
| 2019 | Bruins | Game 6 | 110 | $11.00 |
| 2019 | Bruins | Game 7 | -145 | $6.90 |
| 2020 | Blue Jackets | Game 5 | 150 | $15.00 |
| 2021 | Canadiens | Game 5 | 200 | $20.00 |
| 2021 | Canadiens | Game 6 | 175 | $17.50 |
| 2021 | Canadiens | Game 7 | 185 | $18.50 |
| 2022 | Lightning | Game 6 | 105 | $10.50 |
| 2022 | Lightning | Game 7 | 115 | $11.50 |
| 2023 | Lightning | Game 6 | 140 | $14.00 |
| 2023 | Lightning | Game 7 | -115 | -$10.00 |
| 2024 | Bruins | Game 7 | -135 | $7.41 |
| 2025 | Senators | Game 4 | -115 | $8.70 |
| 2025 | Senators | Game 5 | 150 | $15.00 |
A $10 bettor on FanDuel is up over $150 fading the Maple Leafs since 2018 when the team is playing a series-clinching game.
DOM’S BATTLE OF ONTARIO GAME 6 BEST BET
In case you missed it, I'm on the Maple Leafs to win tonight at -102.
Yes, I get that Toronto is 1-13 in 14 potential playoff series-clinching games since 2018.
The Core Four has not lived up to expectations. That said, this year's team finished with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, jumped out to a 3-0 series lead, and hasn't lost three games in a row all season.
Why start now? For as ugly as Game 5 looked, the Maple Leafs have the potential to completely redeem themselves with a win tonight.
As for another FanDuel Best Bet to consider, I like Matthew Knies to record 1+ point at -120.
Knies has recorded a point in three of five games in the series.
He nearly scored again in Game 5, when he led Toronto in expected goals and finished with a team-high six shots on goal. Knies has the potential to be a difference maker tonight skating on the top line at 5-on-5 and the top powerplay unit.
I sprinkled on Knies anytime goal at +300 and laddered his shots on goal props.
I'll go with Knies 1+ point at -120 as a best bet to compliment Toronto ML.
What could go wrong?