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Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: PGA Championship Betting Card
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It’s the Wednesday night before a major, and I can’t help but write about some Championship golf betting.
The week when one of golf’s four major tournaments is being played always has such a great buzz to it.
From the moment the final putt drops Sunday afternoon at the AT&T Bryson Nelson (and LIV Tulsa), all the attention in the golf world shifts to one event, the PGA Championship.
The storylines are endless, the coverage is wall to wall, and the bets … the bets are good.
We’ve spent all week breaking down the field and crunching the numbers, now it’s time to putt (sorry) our money where our mouth is.
Here is how my betting card looks for the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y. Let’s make it a great one.
OUTRIGHTS
Patrick Cantlay 21
Viktor Hovland 32
Collin Morikawa 35
Cameron Young 75 *future
Gary Woodland 160
I’ve had this tournament circled for a long time thanks to Cameron Young’s 65-1 ticket, and his ability with the driver should give him plenty of chances to hang around with the game’s best at this challenging test. Will the kid from New York win his first event (in a major) in his home state? I’d love to see it.
Now, let’s talk about Viktor Hovland.
Hovland is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world and with challenging tee shots paired with cold, wet and windy days, who else but a Norwegian that is fourth in Total Driving and sixth in Strokes Gained off the Tee.
Hovland has played in the final group and the penultimate group in his last two majors, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the mix on Sunday.
Top 10
Scottie Scheffler -105 (Best Bet)
Adam Scott +230
Wyndham Clark +600
Harris English +1600
Wyndham Clark
Wyndham Clark has been on the best iron players in the world since the turn of the calendar in January.
Highest Strokes Gained: Approach per round since January 1 (Min. 35 rounds)
Tony Finau 1.07
Scottie Scheffler 1.03
Xander Schauffele 0.98
Collin Morikawa 0.96
Wyndham Clark 0.95
On top of the elite iron play, he has plenty of length off the tee and just won at Quail Hollow a few weeks ago, you're going to see his name on this list a lot.
Shout out to my guy Michael Tabascio for the Adam Scott pick – he was all over him in our group chat last week, and I simply had to ride.
Top 20
Xander Schauffele -150
Matthew Fitzpatrick +130
Viktor Hovland +130
Joaquin Niemann +280
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele has everything you want at any golf course, so I trust him to keep big numbers off his card and peddle down when he needs to. I don’t often lay juice, but I’m happy to do it in this case.
Matthew Fitzpatrick just has a great way of flying under the radar and entering events with zero expectations.
He’s got more than enough length for a place like Oak Hill and can lean on the U.S. Open win experience to get around a place that is drawing a lot of comps to U.S. Open-type venues.
And I just think Joaquin Niemann is super underrated. He was so impressive in his win at the Genesis last year and would be one the game’s brightest young stars if he didn’t make the jump to LIV Golf.
He very quietly tied for 16th at the Masters and has back-to-back T8’s on LIV.
Top 30
Adam Scott +170
Wyndham Clark +160
Taylor Moore +280
Bryson DeChambeau +280
Bryson DeChambeau
I never know what to expect from Bryson DeChambeau, so this is a pure dart throw.
He seems to be in better physical health than when he was drinking six protein shakes a day.
I don’t have high expectations for him and could see him ejecting rather early in this event.
I like Bryson, though. He’s weird, makes me feel seen.
Top 40
Wyndham Clark -105
Taylor Moore +115
Haris English +165
Thorbjorn Olesen +320
Nicolai Hojgaard +330
Thorbjorn Olesen
I kid you not. I was looking at the Top Danish Market and couldn’t help but fall in love with both Thorbjorn Olesen and Nicolai Hojgaard.
Olesen won in Thailand in Feburary, and has four top 10s in his last five starts on the European Tour, while Hojgaard is coming off a tie for fifth in Italy and also tied for second at the Corales Puntacana Championship in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, earlier this year.
I don’t think I’m asking too much for at least one of them to make the weekend and give the top 40 a scare.
First Round Leader
Brooks Koepka 37
Matthew Fitzpatrick 41
Wyndham Clark 60
Tom Hoge 65
Sahith Theegala 80
Harris English 110
I love Wyndham Clark.
Enjoy the golf this weekend, everyone!