Morning Coffee: Oilers, Stars now a best-of-three in Western Conference Final

The Dallas Mavericks could be found as high as 27-to-1 to win the 2024 NBA championship at FanDuel last summer.

After officially punching their ticket to the NBA Finals for the third time in franchise history, the Mavericks are down to +184 to win it all at FanDuel this morning.

Luka Doncic ended the Western Conference Finals with another memorable performance as he posted 36 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists in a 124-103 win in Game 5.

The Western Conference Finals MVP will enter the NBA Finals leading the entire postseason in points (489), rebounds (164), and assists (150), becoming the first player in NBA history to accomplish that remarkable feat.

To win the title, Luka and the Mavericks will need to pull off one more series upset at +184 to win the title.

The Boston Celtics remain the NBA title favourite at -220.

Meanwhile in the NHL, the Florida Panthers are one win away from clinching a berth in the Stanley Cup Final after beating the New York Rangers 3-2 in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden last night.

Florida opened -164 and is currently -170 to win Game 6 on home ice on Saturday night.

The Rangers are currently +140 to force a Game 7.

First up, Game 5 of the Western Conference Final will command the spotlight tonight as the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers attempt to gain the edge in a series that has been reduced to a best-of-three.

When an NHL best-of-seven series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to win 79 per cent of the time.

If the previous two games in the series are any indication, no lead will be safe in Dallas tonight. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday, May 31st, 2024.

Oilers, Stars Now A Best-Of-3 In Western Conference Final

The Western Conference Final was a pick’em at FanDuel (-110 both sides) when the series was tied 1-1 heading into Game 3 in Edmonton.

After the Stars took back home-ice advantage with a crucial road split, FanDuel is giving Dallas the slight edge in a series that has been reduced to a best-of-three.

The Stars are -130 to win Game 5 and -120 to advance.

The Oilers are +108 to win tonight and +100 to advance.

What should we expect tonight?

Interestingly, this series has looked very different through the first four games depending on the venue.

In Games 1 and 2 in Dallas, the teams combined for an average of 4.5 goals per game as the under went 2-0.

In Games 3 and 4 in Edmonton, the average jumped from 4.5 to 7.5 goals per game as the over went 2-0.

Both teams rallied from multi-goal deficits to win.

In Game 3, the Stars could be found as long as +520 to win live trailing 2-0 in the second period.

Dallas scored five of the next six goals in a 5-3 win.

In Game 4, the Oilers could be found as long as +330 to win live down 2-0 in the first period.

Edmonton responded with five unanswered goals in a 5-2 win – the largest win in a Stanley Cup Playoff game by a team that had trailed by multiple goals.

It’s only the second time in NHL history that a conference finals or semi-finals series featured consecutive multi-goal comebacks.

After witnessing offensive spikes in Games 3 and 4, it will be interesting to see if that trend continues tonight, or if we see a regression to a score more like Games 1 and 2 in Dallas.

Of course, we still don’t know Chris Tanev’s status.

If Tanev is out tonight, the Stars could be in trouble.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I have a couple of recommended plays for Game 5.

I’ll start with a Same Game Parlay that features Zach Hyman, Tyler Seguin, and Jason Robertson to each record 2+ shots on goal at -113.

While it’s been a weird week in terms of some notable disparities in the shots on goal markets, Hyman, Seguin, and Robertson have combined to go 11-for-12 in the 2+ shots on goal market in the series.

The lone miss was Robertson finishing with one shot on goal in Game 2.

However, he averaged 3.5 shots on goal per game in Games 3 and 4 on the road following the return of Roope Hintz to the lineup.

I’ll take Hyman, Seguin, and Robertson to register 2+ shots on goal at -113 odds.

I’ll also lock in Robertson 3+ shots on goal at +112.

Next up, I’ll parlay Connor McDavid 3+ shots on goal with the over 4.5 total goals in the game.

McDavid matched Hyman with a team-high five shots on goal on eight shot attempts in Game 4.

He’s exploded for 11 shots on goal in the last two games, while registering four or more shots on goal in three of the four games in the series.

McDavid 3+ shots on goal and the alt over 4.5 is -112.

Finally, I’ll go back to the well with Evander Kane 2+ shots on goal and Robertson 2+ shots on goal at -128.

Kane had registered at least two shots on goal in six straight games before finishing with one on five attempts in Game 4.

While I don’t love the bump off the second line, the opportunities were still there for Kane and I think he bounces back in Game 5.

To recap, here is my full card for Game 5:

Hyman 2+ SOG, Seguin 2+ SOG, Robertson 2+ SOG -113

Robertson 3+ SOG +112

McDavid 3+ SOG & alt over 4.5 -122

Kane 2+ SOG & Robertson 2+ SOG -128

Hopefully, we can finish the month on a high note.

Have a great weekend, everyone.