Game of Throws: Will Daniels, Commanders continue climb up NFC ranks?

Nobody expected the Washington Commanders to rank among the NFC’s top contenders in 2024.

The Commanders became just the sixth team since 1950 to make the playoffs with a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback.

Washington also became just the fifth team to reach a conference championship after finishing the previous season with one of the two-worst records in the NFL.

Of course, the Commanders wouldn’t have returned to the postseason without a remarkable debut season by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels.

Daniels wasn’t just one of the best rookies in the league, he was one of the best QBs in the league, regardless of a lack of experience.

One year later, Washington is being targeted by FanDuel bettors as a legitimate contender that can take the next step in 2025.

The 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Daniels is the fifth choice to win NFL regular season MVP at +1000.

Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes are the only players with shorter odds.

Impressive company for a second-year quarterback.

In fact, the FanDuel traders told us that Daniels is the third-most popular pick to win NFL MVP in terms of bet count behind only Burrow and Jackson.

In 2024, Daniels led the Commanders to a 12-5 record – the third-best mark in the NFC.

This season, FanDuel set Washington’s regular season win total at over/under 9.5.

Bettors were quick to jump on the over with 84 per cent of the bets at FanDuel on the Commanders to reach double-digit wins once again.

They also didn’t hesitate to back Washington to win the NFC Championship at +1000.

Five teams currently have shorter odds to win the NFC Championship at FanDuel.

However, only two teams – the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions – have a higher bet count in FanDuel’s NFC Championship winner market.

Transparently, you can count me out when it comes to Washington to reach the Super Bowl this season.

There’s no doubt that Daniels deserves his flowers as one of the rising stars at the position.

However, a spectacular rookie season doesn’t necessarily translate to another big step in Year Two - a lesson we learned with C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.

One of the biggest reasons why the Commanders overachieved to the degree they did last season was their record in close games.

Eight of Washington’s 12 wins were by six points or less.

They also benefited from a relatively favourable schedule of opponents, with wins over teams led by Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Caleb Williams, Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Michael Penix, and Trey Lance.

The Commanders upgraded their offensive line with the addition of Laremy Tunsil, but star wide receiver Terry McLaurin has requested a trade, while Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus left in the offseason.

While they added Deebo Samuel Sr, Washington could be without its top three wide receivers from last season if McLaurin sits out or is traded.

Maybe McLaurin remains with the team after all, but the fact that Daniels’ best wide receiver isn’t practicing at full speed should be a concern at this point in the summer.

The same could be said about a leaky Commanders defence that showed signs of improvement under head coach Dan Quinn last year but still has a long way to go.

If everything goes right again this season, Washington could reach double-digit wins in the regular season and return to the playoffs as one of the top teams in the NFC.

However, there’s also the potential for things to break down around Daniels and keep him from taking a big step forward this season.

The Eagles are still the team to beat in the NFC East, while it’s hard to imagine either the Dallas Cowboys or the New York Giants being worse than last season.

The Commanders also must deal with the NFC North and the AFC West this season – two of the better divisions in all of football.

Keep in mind, Daniels could improve as a quarterback in a season in which Washington takes a step back after they won 12 games in his rookie season.

I’m not willing to bet on the Commanders to miss the playoffs entirely at +108.

However, I’m out on Washington to win the NFC East, the NFC Championship, the Super Bowl, and I’m out on Daniels to win NFL regular season MVP.

In case you missed it, I recommended a play on the Eagles to win the NFC East at -140.

That number is slightly better right now at -135.

Give me Philadelphia to win the NFC East in 2025.

As for the Commanders, I’m fascinated to see whether they can live up to the hype after FanDuel bettors made them a popular pick to reach the Super Bowl this season.