Morning Coffee: Falcons’ Super Bowl odds on the move after landing Cousins

Monday was a wild day across the National Football League. 

But before I get to any of the odds movement after the first day of the negotiating window opened in the NFL, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t highlight an incredible underdog story we saw Monday night. 

Monday night world No. 126 Luca Nardi defeated Novak Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in the round of 32 at Indian Wells. 

I missed the upset, but my pal Rob at FanDuel sent me some information this morning. Nardi closed as an underdog at +2000, the same price as: 

Matthew Stafford to win 2024 NFL MVP 

Seattle Mariners to win the World Series 

Milwaukee to beat Denver in the NBA Finals 

Florida to play Dallas in the Stanley Cup 

Despite winning the opening set, Nardi was still a +240 dog to the No. 1 player in the world and that number ballooned to +550 as they entered the third and final set all square. 

Nardi would ultimately pull off the upset, handing Djokovic his earliest exit at this event since 2019. 

It’s another reminder that sometimes those loveable longshots can get home to cash your ticket. 

An inspiring story as we entered one of my favourite golf events of the year. But I’ll get to that later. 

Let’s talk football.

Here is your Morning Coffee for Tuesday, March, 12. 

Falcons' Super Bowl Odds slashed in half 

The Atlanta Falcons have their quarterback. 

The roster in Atlanta has been solid for two years and for two years their quarterbacks have held the team back. 

Monday it was reported that the team is inking Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal.  The move instantly makes them -110 favourites to win the NFC South. 

Their Super Bowl odds were also cut from 50-1 to 25-1 before settling in at 30-1. 

Atlanta now has the sixth shortest odds to win the NFC at +1400. 

Cousins has a career record of 1-4 in the playoffs. 

Another move that made headlines was running back Saquon Barkley leaving the New York Giants to join divisional rival Philadelphia. 

The Eagles’ Super Bowl odds were unaffected, but Barkley’s number to win Offensive Player of the Year is an interesting one. 

The 27-year-old is 40-1 to win OPOY and in an offence as loaded as the Eagles’, he could really benefit from not being the centre of attention for a change. 

Look at the impact Christian McCaffrey had in San Francisco, he went from injury-prone in Carolina to an ironman with the 49ers. 

Barkley remains one of the game’s top running backs in my opinion and I’m excited to see him thrive in his new environment. 

I also have his first game against the Giants circled after former Giants running back Tiki Barber had some choice words for Barkley on his way out the door. 

This is a family show, so I’ll leave at that. It’s up to you to seek out those quotes. 

Domenic Padula, our Senior Sports Betting analyst, might be off for March break this week, but he’s still got his finger on the pulse, and he highlighted the biggest winners so far this off-season in the Super Bowl market. 

They are: 

Falcons 50-1 -> 30-1

Browns 50-1 -> 40-1

Buccaneers 75-1 -> 55-1

Steelers 100-1 -> 75-1

The biggest losers are: 

Jaguars 30-1 -> 40-1

Bears 40-1 -> 50-1

Vikings 40-1 -> 75-1

Patriots 150-1 -> 170-1

Panthers 250-1 -> 300-1

Let’s see how things shake up the rest of the week. 

Raptors give Nuggets a scare 

The Toronto Raptors went into Denver on Monday to play the NBA Champs. 

They were missing Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Gary Trent and Jakob Portal.

Toronto tipped off as 16-point underdogs, it was the biggest they had been underdogs all season. 

At the half, the Raptors led by 17 points. Their live number to win the game got as low as -120 at one point. 

But Denver responded in the second half, led by Nikola Jokic with 35 points, 17 rebounds and 12 assists, coming all the way back to win 125-119. 

As someone who live bet Jokic over 35.5 points and assists I must say I enjoyed the second half of that game. 

The win improved Denver to 27-6 at home. 

And the Nuggets remain one of the favourites to win the NBA title at +370. 

A bet on Sungjae Im at the Players Championship 

Mondays are the best during golf season. Once my work is taken care of I turn all of my attention to RickRunGood.com and dive into all of the golf data you can dream of. 

This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass for the Players Championship. And while I’m convinced Scottie Scheffler will run away with this thing. There’s one player in the field I can’t ignore. 

Sungjae Im. 

Im snapped a six-event slump with his irons last week at Bay Hill, gaining over 1.8 strokes to the field on approach. 

He tied for 18th, his best finish since a T5 at The Sentry to open the season. 

Im has has finished inside the top 20 at the Players two of the last three years (T6-T55-T17).  

But here’s where the fun really begins. 

On Sungjae’s bag this week is Will Wilcox. In a recent interview on YouTube with ForePlayGolf, Wilcox said he reads every putt for Sungjae. 

"I read every putt. [Sungjae] wants you to read every single putt." Wilcox said, "I think sometimes... mentally it helps to be like, 'He screwed up, not me.'"  

Wilcox played 72 events on the PGA Tour, he made 38 cuts. 

One of those made cuts came in 2016 when he finished tied for 72nd at the Players Championship. 

It was his only trip to TPC Sawgrass. And according to RickRunGood.com, he gained over 4 strokes putting that week. 

Maybe I’m over simplifying this, but that seems like a good person to have read Im’s putts this week. 

I’ve had my eye on Sungjae for a few weeks. While his irons were slumping, a player of his calibre doesn’t just suddenly lose one of his best abilities. 

With the iron game suddenly trending, and some projected success on the greens , I like Sungjae Im at 90-1 outright this week to keep up with, and perhaps take down, world No. 1 Scheffler.