Morning Coffee: A closer look at Leafs’ odds to advance after Game 4 win

Put away the brooms.

For just the sixth time in 36 years, there will not be any sweeps in the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Joseph Woll turned aside 24 of the 25 shots he faced as the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 2-1 in Game 4 to avoid a sweep on Wednesday night.

The rookie goaltender was the difference in the third straight game that was decided by one goal in the series.

Woll is just the eighth rookie goalie in NHL history to earn a win when his first playoff start was in an elimination game.

While their fans celebrated in the streets late into the night, the Maple Leafs still have a long way to go if they are going to get out of the second round. 

Nevertheless, I was somewhat surprised when I saw how short Toronto’s updated odds to win the series are at FanDuel this morning.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday May 11, 2023.

A closer look at Leafs’ odds to advance after Game 4 win

The Maple Leafs could be found as long as +760 to advance at FanDuel after they fell behind 3-0 in their second-round series against the Panthers

However, that number was bet down to +630 before the puck dropped for Game 4 last night.

After a 2-1 win in Florida, Toronto is currently down to +300 to win the series at FanDuel this morning.

For perspective, that number represents a 25 per cent implied win probability. A $10 bet would pay $30 if the Buds rally to win the series.

The Maple Leafs are 1-15 all-time when trailing 3-1 in a best-of-seven series – a 6.67 per cent win rate.

Still, after they avoided elimination with a big win on the road, Toronto opened -162 to win Game 5 on home ice. That number has since been bet up to -178 at FanDuel.

While they still have a long way to go in order to reach the Eastern Conference Finals, things will certainly get a lot more interesting if the Maple Leafs can win again in Game 5 on Friday night.

Oilers bounce back again to even series at 2-2

Connor McDavid registered a pair of assists as the Edmonton Oilers beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-1 in Game 4 to tie their series at 2-2 last night.

It was an easy winner for anyone who bet the Oilers on the money line or the puck line.

It was also an easy winner for anyone who bet on the “GIFT” at FanDuel, as a goal in the first 10 minutes cashed for the fourth straight game in the series.

Edmonton opened -120 to win Game 5 on the road.

With the series tied 2-2, the Oilers are -168 to advance at FanDuel this morning. Vegas is now +136 to win the series.

A FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday night

Jalen Brunson went off for 38 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists as the New York Knicks avoided elimination with a 112-103 win over the Miami Heat in Game 5 last night.

While Brunson 20+ points cashed early in the third quarter, Julius Randle limped to five rebounds in the win, falling three shy of the 8+ rebounds we needed to cash our Same Game Parlay for Wednesday night.

For as disappointing as that was to watch, it’s time to turn the page and get back on track.

We’re on a 7-2 run with the FanDuel Best Bets in this column, and we still have the Miami Heat to win the series at -115 pending with two more chances to clinch.

Tonight, I’m turning back to a formula that has worked for me with three players that have been very profitable for me throughout the NBA playoffs to build a Same Game Parlay at FanDuel.

First up, I’ll take Marcus Smart to score 10+ points in Game 6 as the Boston Celtics look to avoid elimination against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Smart has recorded 12+ points in each of the first five games of the series, with 14+ points in each of the previous four games. He’s scored 10+ points in every game this postseason.

With the Celtics facing elimination, I’ll bank on 10 points from Smart against the 76ers tonight.

After that, I’ll turn back to the dynamic duo for the Phoenix Suns in an elimination game against the Denver Nuggets.

Devin Booker has scored 27+ points in every game of the series so far.

Kevin Durant has scored 24+ points in every game of the series so far, including 26+ points in four of the five games.

With the Suns facing elimination, I’ll bank on both of those players stepping up again in Game 5.

My FanDuel Best Bet is an NBA Same Game Parlay with Booker 25+ points, Durant 25+ points, Durant 6+ rebounds and Smart 10+ points at -108.

If you want to add another leg to push the SGP to plus-money, I’d recommend a look at Aaron Gordon 4+ rebounds to push the Same Game Parlay to +130.

Gordon has 6+ rebounds in four of the first five games in the series.

Also, while I’ve leaned heavily on the NBA Same Game Parlays for winners of late, I still have my eye out for potential opportunities in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tonight, I like the Carolina Hurricanes to beat the New Jersey Devils in Game 5 on home ice tonight at -130.    

Despite injuries up front, the Hurricanes have scored 4+ goals in each of the first four games of the series, including 5+ goals in their three wins.

Carolina outscored New Jersey a combined 11-2 on home ice in the first two games of the series.

Despite their dominance, the Hurricanes are just -130 to close out the series with another win tonight.

I’ll take Carolina at -130 to win tonight and advance.