Morning Coffee: A player prop to target for Super Bowl LVIII

​The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are set to clash on the game’s biggest stage at Super Bowl LVIII a week from Sunday.

It will be a rematch of Super Bowl 54, which the Chiefs won 31-20 to secure the franchise’s first title in 50 years.

It’s the fourth time in NFL history that a pair of teams will meet in the Super Bowl twice over a five-year span.

In each of the previous three instances, the team that won the first Super Bowl also won the second one.

As somebody who jumped on Patrick Mahomes to lead Kansas City to the outright win at +118 at FanDuel, I’ll be cheering for the Chiefs to prevail on Super Bowl Sunday.

While it didn’t take long for me to jump on a side, I haven’t locked in a player prop bet for Super Bowl LVIII.

Until right now.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday February 1st, 2024.

A Player Prop To Target For Super Bowl LVIII

Several factors that went into my decision to back the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.

First and foremost, Mahomes is in a class of his own at the quarterback position.

For as impressive as Brock Purdy has looked at times this season, I’m not betting on him to beat Mahomes in the biggest game of the season.

Mahomes and Purdy both put up impressive numbers this season.

However, Kansas City and San Francisco had very opposite seasons in terms of the production at the offensive skill positions.

The Chiefs don’t have a single player that finished with 1,000 yards rushing or receiving.

The 49ers had four players that registered at least 1000 yards from scrimmage in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

While I’m on Kansas City to win the game, I’ve circled one of San Francisco’s veteran skill-position players for my first player prop recommendation for Super Bowl LVIII.

I like Deebo Samuel 50+ receiving yards at -150.

Samuel is coming off a playoff career-high 8 receptions for 89 yards in the NFC Championship Game win over the Detroit Lions.

Samuel did much of his work during the second-half comeback, registering six receptions for 68 yards over the final two quarters.

Unlike in their playoff wins over the Lions and Green Bay Packers, the 49ers can’t afford to fall too far behind against Mahomes and the Chiefs at Super Bowl LVIII.

Considering how important of a role Samuel played against Detroit, I believe Kyle Shanahan will lean heavily on him versus Kansas City’s No. 2 ranked defence.

Samuel’s versatility and ability to make plays after the catch will be vital against the Chiefs.

The veteran receiver is the only player in the NFL with at least 400 snaps as an outside wide receiver, 400 or more snaps as a slot receiver, 50 or more snaps as an in-line tight end, and 50 or more snaps out of the backfield.

There is no doubt in my mind that the 49ers will attempt to establish the run early with McCaffrey.

I also believe that Samuel will be Purdy’s most popular target when they go to the air.

San Francisco is 13-1 this season when Samuel plays.

The 49ers offence has averaged 7.1 yards per play when Samuel is on the field, compared to 5.5 yards per play when he is not.

Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will both factor into the offence, but the former is more of a downfield threat, while the latter is dealing with a toe injury that appeared to limit him in the NFC Championship Game.

Samuel was outstanding against the Lions.

If he delivers 56 per cent of his NFC Championship Game production against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, it will be enough to cash this recommended play.

Give me Deebo Samuel 50+ receiving yards at -150 as a FanDuel Best Bet for Super Bowl LVIII.

Nylander The Favourite To Be The First Overall Pick In NHL All-Star Draft

With the NHL All-Star festivities set to take place in Toronto, the league’s biggest stars are set to draft their teams for this weekend’s festivities tonight.

Four pairs of co-captains will select their teams from a field of 36 players, setting the stage for the All-Star Skills Competition and the NHL All-Star Game.

In addition to their All-Star Skills Competition markets online right now, FanDuel has created some special markets for tonight’s NHL All-Star Draft.

Hockey fans in Ontario can bet on who they think will be the first overall pick in tonight’s draft, as well as who they think will be the last overall pick.

As it stands this morning, William Nylander is the favourite to be the first overall pick at +350 odds.

David Pastrnak (+550), Nikita Kucherov (+550), Sidney Crosby (+600), Mitch Marner (+650) and Alexander Georgiev (+700) round out the list of players with shorter than 10-to-1 odds to be the first overall pick.

Meanwhile, Tom Wilson is the favourite to be the last overall pick in the NHL All-Star Draft at +300 odds.

Boone Jenner (+400), Frank Vatrano (+400), and Oliver Bjorkstrand (+400) are the other three players with shorter than 10-to-1 odds to be the last overall pick.

I’ve always been a fan of the NHL All-Star festivities.

Unfortunately, I can’t offer an edge when it comes to the markets referenced above.

However, I will be watching tonight, so make sure to hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X if you have any insights on who will be the first and the last pick in tonight’s NHL All-Star Draft.