Morning Coffee: AL MVP favourite Judge closing in on 300th career Home Run

Expectations don’t guarantee outcomes.

If you need proof, just ask anybody who placed bets on Week 1 of the NFL pre-season.

The underdogs went a combined 10-6 against the spread.

Nobody had it worse than anybody who followed the money.

Week 1 NFL pre-season moves of at least 1.5 points went a dismal 1-9 against the spread.

The Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Atlanta Falcons were among the most heavily bet teams in large part due to the perceived advantage of their QB depth.

Instead, those favourites went a combined 0-3.

Once again, expectations don’t guarantee outcomes.

Then again, Team USA women’s basketball might be the exception to this rule.

After a thrilling finish to the men’s basketball final on Saturday, the women’s final was another close contest, with Team USA ultimately surviving a scare from France to secure their record eighth straight gold medal.

The American women’s basketball team has now won 61 consecutive games at the Olympics, an incredible streak that spans 32 years.

They weren’t the only heavy favourites that lived up to expectations at the summer games.

If you know, then you know.

Unlike Team USA at the Olympics, it’s rare to see such dominant favourites deliver in outright winner markets across the big four sports.

Then again, I’m staring at a road favourite in baseball that is currently sitting at -320 at FanDuel, as we get set for one of the most lopsided series of the season on paper.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, August 12^th, 2024.

AL MVP Favourite Judge Closing In On 300^th Career Home Run

Aaron Judge has hit 299 career home runs in 952 games.

He’s about to hit the 300-career home run mark more than 100 games faster than any player before him.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets there this week.

Judge is +196 to hit a home run against the Chicago White Sox in the opener of a three-game series tonight.

The Yankees have already been bet up from -270 to -320 over the past 24 hours at FanDuel.

I’m interested to see where that number ends up by first pitch tonight.

When these teams met at Yankee Stadium back in May, Judge hit two home runs in the three-game series.

The White Sox have allowed 154 home runs this season – the third-most in the majors.

Chicago is scheduled to start a rookie in each of the first two games of the series.

Judge has hit five home runs in 36 at-bats versus rookies this season.

Expectations don’t guarantee outcomes, but I’d be surprised if Judge doesn’t hit his 300^th career home run at Guaranteed Rate Field this week.

The White Sox have been historically bad with a 28-91 record heading into their series against New York.

That includes a 1-24 record in their last 25 games – tied for the worst 25-game span since 1900.

If they get swept in this series, Chicago will become the first team to lost 27 times in a 28-game span since the Philadelphia Phillies in 1961.

A couple of weeks ago, I recommended a play on the White Sox win total under 43.5 at FanDuel.

That number is down to 39.5 -114 this morning.

Chicago will host the Yankees for three games prior to a six-game road trip in which they’ll face the Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants.

I’m very interested to see how they fare over that nine-game stretch and what their in-season adjusted win total at FanDuel looks like at the other end of that stretch.

Meanwhile, Judge to win the American League MVP is currently -1350 at FanDuel.

With Bobby Witt Jr. passing him in WAR thanks to his own remarkable hot streak, anybody with a ticket on Judge to win AL MVP needs the Yankees’ slugger to keep his foot on the gas and capitalize on this match-up.

A Same Game Parlay with Judge to hit his 300^th career home run and New York to win by two or more runs could be found at +248 at FanDuel this morning.

That’s an enticing SGP option to consider for a game that is expected to be very one-sided on paper.

With 24 days to go until the NFL kick-off game, I’ve still got a ton of work to do to prepare for the season.

Tonight, I’ll be locked into my NFL prep with the Yankees game on in the background cheering on history to be made with Judge hitting his 300^th home run in a win.