Morning Coffee: FanDuel’s insights into the Hart Trophy market

Every wager at FanDuel is a gamble.

It’s also an opportunity.

I’ve always appreciated the challenge.

For me, it isn’t just a game of strategy.

The FanDuel traders distill complex information into simple odds made available to the betting public.

Betting markets offer a fascinating glimpse into the collective wisdom of those that are willing to accept the challenge of attempting to predict the unpredictable in an attempt to turn uncertainty into profit.

Those betting markets are a window into the human psyche, which is a goldmine for someone like me who thrives on understanding human behaviour.

Sports are an ideal forum for this type of experience.

Allow me to explain.

Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov are widely considered the best hockey players on the entire planet.

All four superstars have performed at an elite level this NHL season.

All four have their respective teams in playoff contention.

Which of them is the most valuable player in the NHL?

The FanDuel traders provided us with an exclusive look into the perspective of Ontario bettors on the Hart Trophy market.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday February 27th, 2024.

FanDuel’s Insights Into The Hart Trophy Market

Let’s begin with the Hart Trophy odds at FanDuel.

There are 22 NHL players that bettors can place a wager on to win that award at FanDuel this morning.

However, the odds indicate that 18 of those 22 options would be considered long shots to win the Hart Trophy at 50-to-1 odds or longer.

Connor Hellebuyck, Artemi Panarin, David Pastrnak, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are all 50-to-1 to win the Hart Trophy at FanDuel this morning.

That means that a $10 bet on any one of those options would pay $500 if they went on to win the award.

If anything, Hellebuyck to win the Hart might be considered a value play as the top goalie option on the board at 50-to-1 odds.

However, considering the gap between the top four options and the rest of the field, it’s clear that the traders at FanDuel believe the Hart Trophy race will come down to one of Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov and McDavid.

Matthews is the current favourite at +200 odds.

MacKinnon is a close second choice at +230.

Kucherov is third on the list at +250 odds.

McDavid rounds out the big four at +350 to win the Hart.

The fact that McDavid has the longest odds of that group is interesting for a couple of reasons.

First, he’s a three-time Hart Trophy winner and he’s been the perennial favourite to win that award in recent years.

Second, he’s the only player among the big four that was never longer than 5-to-1 to win the Hart this season.

Third, he’s averaged a ridiculous 2.18 points per game over the last 30 days, which is easily the best mark in the entire NHL.

At the same time, there’s this.

What do FanDuel bettors in Ontario think about McDavid’s chances to win the Hart Trophy again this season?

The numbers offer a fascinating perspective on the Hart Trophy discussion.

McDavid is currently the third-most popular bet to win the Hart at FanDuel in terms of both the number of wagers and the amount of money wagered.

While Kucherov technically has shorter odds to win the Hart at +250 than McDavid at +350, Kucherov is fourth on the list in terms of both the number of wagers and the amount of money wagered in that market.

If McDavid and Kucherov rank third and fourth in terms of the most popular bets to win the Hart Trophy, who is No. 1 on the list?

This is where things get even more fascinating.

In terms of the overall number of wagers, Matthews has been the most popular bet to win the Hart Trophy among FanDuel bettors in Ontario.

However, when it comes to the total amount of money wagered on the Hart Trophy market, which is referred to as the “handle”, MacKinnon is No. 1 on the list.

To date, 31.5 per cent of the bets on the Hart Trophy market in Ontario are on Matthews, compared to 10.4 per cent of the bets on MacKinnon.

At the same time, 24.4 per cent of the handle is on MacKinnon to win the Hart, compared to 20.4 per cent of the handle on Matthews.

With seven weeks remaining in the regular season, there’s still plenty of time for each of Matthews, MacKinnon, McDavid and Kucherov to make their case for the league’s MVP award.

Considering that Matthews could be found as high as 14-to-1 odds to win that award earlier this month and now he’s the betting favourite at 2-to-1 odds, it’s clear that a lot can change in a short period of time.

FanDuel’s markets give us a fascinating perspective on the Hart Trophy race to date.

I’m excited to watch the best hockey talent in the world compete over the next few weeks as they make their case for the most valuable player in the NHL.