Morning Coffee: NHL second-round series underdogs go 4-0 in Game 1
The Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars and New Jersey Devils were the betting favourites to advance at FanDuel entering the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
None of those teams won Game 1 in their series.
After we opened the second round with a pair of notable upsets on Tuesday night, it was a similar story on Wednesday.
The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Edmonton Oilers 6-4 as a +106 money line underdog at FanDuel.
The Oilers have made the playoffs four years in a row. They have gone a combined 0-7 in Game 1s over that span.
Meanwhile, the Carolina Hurricanes cruised to a 5-1 win over the New Jersey Devils.
It was a unique circumstance, as the Hurricanes closed at -118 to win the game at FanDuel, despite being an underdog to win the series.
Underdogs have won three of the first four games of the second round. Will that trend continue tonight?
Or is there value betting on one or more teams that dropped Game 1 to win their series at FanDuel?
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, May 4, 2023.
NHL second-round series underdogs go 4-0 in Game 1
For the third time in as many days, there is a new favourite to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel.
After the Maple Leafs and Oilers each took a turn at the top of that market, it’s the Hurricanes that are the new favourite to win it all at FanDuel this morning.
Goodnight, Raleigh pic.twitter.com/JJtn6FkmWy— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) May 4, 2023
That movement is an illustration of just how wide open this year’s playoffs are following early exits by the Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche.
It’s also a testament to what we have seen the past couple of nights in the NHL.
lock screen material tbh 🎰 pic.twitter.com/hTqKfHHgLk— z - Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) May 4, 2023
Forty-eight hours ago, I was writing about Toronto and Edmonton as the top two choices to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel.
How much will those Game 1 losses impact their chances to advance?
The Maple Leafs lost Game 1 of their first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning and went on to win the series in six.
The Oilers lost Game 1 of their first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings, then went on to win the series in six.
Leon Draisaitl scored four goals in a Game 1 loss to the Golden Knights, a day after Joe Pavelski scored four in a loss to the Kraken.@CraigJButton & @djpoulin20 discuss Draisaitl's dominant night and how Vegas was able to take the momentum. https://t.co/MQpTW3dH87— TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) May 4, 2023
In fact, dating back to last season, they’ve now won three of their past four playoff series after dropping Game 1.
Then there is what we saw across the board in the first round of this year’s playoffs.
Six teams, including Toronto and Edmonton, lost Game 1 on home ice in the first round. Five of those six teams went on to advance to the second round.
Which of the four Game 1 losers in the second round is most likely to advance?
Six road underdogs won their Game 1 in the first round of the #StanleyCup Playoffs. Only one of those six teams - the Kraken - advanced to the second round. #GamblingTwitter https://t.co/uhuUJ6XxO7— Domenic Padula (@DomPadulaEDGE) May 4, 2023
It’s an important question to ask this morning.
Right now, you can find each of the Maple Leafs, Oilers and Devils at a decent price to win their second-round series after losing Game 1.
Toronto went from -176 to -105 to advance at FanDuel.
Edmonton is +128 to win its series with Vegas, down from -152 entering last night’s contest.
TSN Director of Scouting @CraigJButton and #TSNHockey analyst Dave Poulin (@djpoulin20) join @JayOnrait to discuss Leon Draisaitl’s dominant performance in a losing effort. pic.twitter.com/yYIbi1k0W5— JayOnSC (@JayOnSC) May 4, 2023
New Jersey went from -122 to +154 to advance.
If you’re confident in any one of those teams to bounce back in Game 2, you can get them at a good number to win their series this morning.
The Stars are the only team that currently trails in its series but is still a favourite to advance at FanDuel.
If you believe in the Kraken, you can find them at plus-money to take care of business against Dallas.
Celtics bounce back to tie series with 76ers
Jaylen Brown led the way with a game-high 25 points as the Boston Celtics beat the Philadelphia 76ers 121-87 in Game 2 last night to tie their best-of-seven series at 1-1.
all of us waking up this morning pic.twitter.com/VbYB1B9WcD— Boston Celtics (@celtics) May 4, 2023
Check out this trend that you need to know if you’re betting on the NBA: In the past 15 instances in which the home team lost Game 1 of a best-of-seven NBA series, they’ve gone a combined 15-0 straight up in Game 2.
They’ve gone 14-1 against the spread over that span.
In the past 21 instances in which the home team lost Game 1, they’ve gone a combined 20-1 straight up in Game 2, including 19-2 against the spread.
This series marks another chapter in the journey pic.twitter.com/szjUnEJoZV— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 3, 2023
We’ll see if that trend continues tonight with the Golden State Warriors looking to rebound from a Game 1 loss as a six-point favourite against the Los Angeles Lakers.
A FanDuel Best Bet to consider for Thursday night
We cashed our Morning Coffee FanDuel Best Bet for Wednesday with a same-game parlay for last night’s Celtics’ game.
Tonight, I’m locking in a couple of bets that stand out to me.
First up, I’ll lock in another NBA same-game parlay for tonight’s game between the Warriors and Lakers.
Steph Curry has scored 27+ points in every game so far this postseason.
Final 📊— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 3, 2023
Steph - 27p/6r/3a/1s
Klay - 25p/3r/4a
Jordan - 21p/6a/1s
Andrew - 15p/6r
Kevon - 10p/23r/5a
Draymond - 6p/4r/7a/1s/3b
JaMychal - 6p
Gary - 2p/3r/2a
Donte - 3r/2a/2s
Moses - 1r/1a pic.twitter.com/uAmfbWb0dt
He will top that mark in a must-win game for Golden State tonight.
I’ll lock in Curry 25+ points and the Warriors to win at -160 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday night.
In the NHL, I’ll take the Stars to win in regulation at -130.
Start of a long series.@CelsiusOfficial | #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/GiQAwOrIPO— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) May 3, 2023
Dallas is still the favourite to win the series, and I can’t see them starting the second round with consecutive losses on home ice.
Meanwhile, I’ve also been in touch with Chris Meaney, the host of Mean Streets and Dangle Bet Celly at the FTN Network, to a collaborate on an NHL bet for Game 2 tonight between the Maple Leafs and Panthers.
As someone who has enjoyed betting the shots on goal props throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Chris suggested I take a look at Brandon Montour to go over 2.5 shots on goal tonight.
BRANDON MONTOUR CANNOT BE STOPPED pic.twitter.com/R2N0LGlyHK— Florida Panthers (@FlaPanthers) May 3, 2023
Montour, who averaged 3.0 shots on goal per game during the regular season, is up to 3.4 shots on goal per game in the playoffs. He’s cleared 2.5 shots on goal in four of his past five games.
Montour led all skaters with six shot attempts at five-on-five in Game 1 in Toronto, and he finished with a total of five shots on goal, doubling his prop total at 2.5.
Chris and I have locked in Montour over 2.5 shots on goal as a collaboration FanDuel Best Bet for Game 2 between the Maple Leafs and Panthers tonight.
I’ll see you all again tomorrow morning!