Morning Coffee: Purdy in the spotlight ahead of NFC Championship

For just the second time in franchise history and the first time since the 1991 season, the Detroit Lions are headed to a Conference Championship game.

The Lions hadn’t even won a playoff game since 1991.

Now they’re one win away from the Super Bowl.

Detroit’s remarkable run to the NFC Championship game has been one of my favourite storylines of the entire 2023 NFL season.

My teammates Eric Cohen, Drew Morrison, and Chris Brieda are hardcore Lions fans that make up a quarter of the TSN betting department, and getting to watch Detroit beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Divisional Round with them will be a lasting memory for me.

Next up, the Lions face their toughest test yet, and it isn’t particularly close.

After closing as the betting favourite against the Los Angeles Rams and the Buccaneers over the previous two weeks, Detroit is currently a seven-point underdog for its first road game of the postseason against the Super Bowl favourite in the San Francisco 49ers.

Do the Lions have what it takes to pull off the upset this weekend?

Maybe.

With four days to go until Championship Sunday, there will be plenty of discussion about whether the underdogs from Detroit can hang with the big bad 49ers.

In the meantime, it’s time to lock in another FanDuel Best Bet that I believe has a good chance to cash regardless of which team ultimately wins the NFC Championship.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday January 24^th, 2024.

A FanDuel Best Bet For The NFC Championship Game

For the most part this season, I’ve posted my FanDuel Best Bets for Sundays later in the week once I’ve had a decent look at the player props.

However, FanDuel hasn’t wasted any time getting up a long list of game odds, player props and exclusive special markets that no other sportsbook offers up early in the week throughout the playoffs, which has led to me jumping on some early numbers this postseason.

Last week, I went 4-1 with my FanDuel Best Bets.

I narrowly missed out on a 5-0 week when Rashee Rice finished three yards short of hitting 50+ receiving in the Kansas City Chiefs’ win over the Buffalo Bills.

On Tuesday morning, I locked in Lamar Jackson 60+ rushing yards at -130 as my first FanDuel Best Bet for NFL Championship Sunday.

This morning, I’m locking in my second recommended play for this weekend.

The bet is a Same Game Parlay with George Kittle to finish with 40+ receiving yards and Christian McCaffrey to finish with 3 or more receptions at -140 odds.

While the discourse surrounding the 49ers offence has gotten a little bit out of hand of late, even head coach Kyle Shanahan will admit that his quarterback missed some throws in a narrow 24-21 win over the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round.

Purdy went 23-of-39 for 252 yards and a touchdown.

While the 2022 seventh-round pick got to add another playoff win to his resume, anybody who watched the game objectively understood that it wasn’t his best performance.

In fact, thanks to two turnover-worthy plays and several missed throws, Purdy posted his second-worst passing grade of the season, according to Pro Football Focus.

Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports pointed out the potential impact of the weather conditions in San Francisco as a detriment to Purdy’s performance.

While several notable NFL analysts rushed to defend him, the reality is that when it comes to Purdy’s overall body of work, what we saw from him against the Packers was one of his worst performances to date.

That’s what sparked my interest in this parlay.

Despite his struggles, Purdy still threw for 252 yards in the win over Green Bay.

Kittle finished with a team-high 81 receiving yards and a touchdown on seven targets.

50 per cent of that production would be enough for the first leg of my SGP to hit.

Kittle has recorded 40 or more receiving yards in five of his previous six games dating back to the regular season.

Plus, the Detroit defence just gave up five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown to Tampa Bay’s No. 1 tight end Cade Otton in last week’s win over the Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, McCaffrey had a team-high seven receptions for 30 yards on 12 targets against the Packers.

He’s registered three or more receptions in 11 of his previous 12 games dating back to the regular season.

Tampa Bay’s running backs Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds combined for six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown on seven targets against the Lions in the Divisional Round.

With McCaffrey seeing a remarkable 98 per cent snap share and an 80 per cent route participation against Green Bay, he could easily finish with seven or more catches again with a similar usage versus Detroit on Sunday.

Factor in more favourable weather conditions for Purdy to throw the ball, and the potential limitations or the absence of an injured Deebo Samuel, who is “50-50” to play this weekend, and I’m confident enough to make this Same Game Parlay a FanDuel Best Bet.

Purdy is back in the NFC Championship game for the second year in a row.

The 24-year-old is one win away from leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl, and they’re a seven-point favourite against the Lions at FanDuel.

Admitting that last week’s performance wasn’t his best doesn’t take much away from a 2022 seventh-round pick that was the MVP favourite at FanDuel earlier this year.

Consider the SGP with Kittle 40+ receiving yards and McCaffrey 3+ receptions a bet on Purdy to bounce back with a betting showing against Detroit.

Even if he doesn’t, I’m confident the FanDuel Best Bet will cash.