Morning Coffee: The NFL Betting Trend You Should Know About

The Chicago Bears absolutely needed a win against the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. 

It wasn’t pretty, but the Bears ultimately got it done.

It was a pair of former Panthers that stepped up in the victory.

D’Onta Foreman, who led Carolina in rushing yards last season, rushed for a team-high 80 yards and scored the only offensive touchdown in the game.

D.J. Moore, who led the Panthers in receiving yards last season, finished with a team-high 58 receiving yards.

Carolina fell to 1-8 following last night’s loss.

According to ESPN Analytics, the Panthers now have a 40 per cent chance at the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

That pick belongs to the Bears, who acquired the selection in the trade that allowed Carolina to move up in the 2023 NFL Draft and take Bryce Young first overall.

Football fans in Chicago haven’t had much to get excited about in recent seasons.

However, the Bears are currently on track to end up with two of the top five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, including potentially the No. 1 selection.

At the very least, that’s something to get excited about with the potential for the franchise to hit the reset button in the off-season and acquire a couple of cornerstone pieces in the NFL Draft.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday November 10th, 2023.

The NFL Betting Trend You Should Know About

Whether you bet on the Bears or the Panthers last night, you were a winner if you bet it at the right time.

Chicago opened -1.5 at FanDuel.

The Bears closed -3.5.

If you bet on Chicago at -2.5 or less, then you were a winner.

If you bet on Carolina at +3.5, then you were a winner.

Meanwhile, if you bet the over, you never had a shot.

Despite the total crumbling from 41.5 to 38.5 at FanDuel, the under was never in doubt as the two teams grinded out just 29 points in another low-scoring prime-time affair.

The under has now cashed in nine straight prime-time games and 13 of the past 14 prime-time games overall.

The under is 23-7 for all prime-time games this season.

Scoring is down across the NFL, and despite some notable adjustments by the traders at FanDuel, the under keeps on hitting with a 12-3 run in all games dating back to Week 9.

Will that trend continue throughout the weekend?

Six of the 12 games on the Sunday schedule have totals that are currently listed at 40.5 or lower at FanDuel.

A FanDuel Best Bet For NFL Sunday

Prior to the season, I told anybody who would listen that the New England Patriots were in big trouble.

A 20-17 loss to the Washington Commanders on Sunday represented a new low for a team that has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL again this season.

As somebody who recommended a play on New England under 6.5 wins, this week’s showdown with the Indianapolis Colts is a big one.

The Patriots sit at 2-7.

Check out the temperature in the Boston area right now.

In order for the over to hit on their season win total, they will need to win five of their remaining eight games.

A loss to Indianapolis this week would be huge for the under.

Coming off a 27-13 win over the Panthers, the Colts are desperate for a win as they try to get back to .500 entering their bye week.

Jonathan Taylor appears to be rounding into form to give Indianapolis a solid 1-2 punch along with Zach Moss.

Gardner Minshew has been inconsistent, but he did throw for 300+ yards against both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt against a suspect Patriots defence that has a ton of injuries.

With their season on the line, I’ll take my chances with the Colts against an opponent that ranks among the worst in the NFL.

I’ll lock in Indianapolis ML as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Also, I’ll take a two-game parlay with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys on the money line at -160.

The Steelers are 3-0 straight up and against the spread against opponents with losing records this season.

Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS off extra rest, and gets an excellent opportunity to lock in a key win in the AFC playoff race against an opponent that has lost each of its past three games as an underdog.

I considered betting the Steelers at -3.

Instead, I’ll add the Cowboys ML and make it a two-leg parlay in order to get a better number and take Pittsburgh and Dallas to win outright at -160 odds.