Morning Coffee: What are the odds the Maple Leafs win Game 2?

There are moments that define eras for NHL franchises.

For the Toronto Maple Leafs, a first round series against the Boston Bruins represents a crossroads.

A year ago, the Maple Leafs and their fans celebrated their first Stanley Cup Playoffs series win in two decades.

The organization retooled in the offseason with aspirations of building off last year’s result.

After a 5-1 loss to the Bruins in Game 1 on Saturday night, the pressure is on Toronto to respond again.

Sure, it’s only one loss in a seven-game series.

However, a second loss tonight would send the Maple Leafs back home halfway towards elimination.

The outlook would be drastically different with a win.

What are the odds that Toronto responds with a victory in Boston tonight?

Despite an ugly result in the opener, the Maple Leafs aren’t that big of an underdog for Game 2 at FanDuel.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, April 22^nd, 2024.

What Are The Odds The Maple Leafs Win Game 2?

For as disappointed as Leafs Nation was on Saturday night, they can take solace in the fact that a Game 1 win would have made them an outlier.

Home favourites are 6-0 so far this NHL postseason.

Four of those six games were decided by two or more goals.

What are the odds the Maple Leafs bounce back with a win in Game 2?

Toronto is currently +114 to win tonight at FanDuel.

That number represents a 46.7 per cent implied probability – a slightly better chance than Game 1 when they closed +120 at FanDuel.

Keep in mind, we still don’t know whether William Nylander will be available to play tonight.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs odds to advance to the second round jumped from +100 to +190 following the Game 1 loss.

The bad news for Leafs Nation is that there weren’t many positives to take away from Game 1.

The good news is that for as bad as things looked on the ice, Toronto is still has the second-best odds to advance among the six teams that dropped their series opener.

Only the Colorado Avalanche (+142) have shorter odds to advance among the teams that lost Game 1.

A big part of that is the fact that the Avalanche went from the favourite to the underdog in the series after entering the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the favourite to win the Western Conference.

Shout out to Adam Lowry for cashing our first FanDuel Best Bet for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

If they pull off the upset win tonight in Boston, the Maple Leafs would likely go from the underdog to the favourite to win the series at FanDuel.

Obviously, it would be a much different story if they lose.

The Bruins have won seven straight Game 1^st at home dating back to 2019 – tied for the longest streak in franchise history.

More importantly, Boston has won eight straight head-to-head meetings with Toronto dating back to January 2023 – tied for their longest win streak in the head-to-head series in franchise history.

The Bruins have outscored the Maple Leafs 19-8 while winning all five meetings this season.

Teams that take a 2-0 series lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 86 per cent of the time.

That number jumps to 89 per cent when they go up 2-0 on home ice.

Each of the last three Stanley Cup Playoffs series between these teams have gone the distance, with the Bruins winning Game 7 on home ice in all three instances.

A year ago, Toronto opened the playoffs with a 7-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, only to bounce back with a 7-2 win in Game 2 en route to winning the series in six games.

Leafs Nation is hoping for a similar outcome against another heated rival this time around.

Game 2 in Boston tonight is a critical crossroads.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s NHL action, I’ll shift my focus to another Canadian team in action.

The Edmonton Oilers are a -166 moneyline favourite for Game 1 of their first round playoff series against the Los Angeles Kings.

Edmonton won the regular season series 3-1, covering the puck line in each of their final two meetings.

Taking a closer look at the numbers, I believe there is value in the shots on goal market for this game.

Leon Draisaitl averaged 4.0 shots on goal with 16 shots in four games against the Kings this season.

Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe registered 19 shots on goal in four games versus Edmonton for an average of 4.75 per game.

A two-leg Same Game Parlay with Draisaitl and Kempe to both register 2+ shots on goal in Game 1 gets me -130 odds at FanDuel.

That’s a good enough number for me to lock in the SGP as a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s NHL action.