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Betting Breakdown: First-Round Leader clicks for PGA Championship
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The 2024 PGA Championship is set to begin Thursday at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky.
As we approach the event, our friends at FanDuel have provided plenty of markets to explore.
It’s very easy to get overwhelmed the week of a major with all of the different regional and position markets.
But I’m sticking with one of my favourite markets week in and week out: First-round leaders.
This market has been kind to me in 2024, and here is a list of the winners I’ve cashed - all shared either on X or this website prior to an event starting
Mexico Open: Erik Van Rooyen 45-1
Puerto Rico Open: Ryo Hisatsune 29-1 / Rico Hoey 75-1
Players Championship: Xander Schauffele 29-1
Houston Open: Taylor Moore 50-1
Wells Fargo Championship: Xander Schauffele 19-1
Before I get to a few golfers that have caught my eye for this week, I wanted to present you all with some stats and information to help make picks of your own.
All of the info you see below is provided by RickRunGood.com, check them out if you like what you see.
FIRST ROUND LEADERS 2024
First, we’ll examine who has been the best in the first round this season (PGA Tour, LIV Golf, DP World Tour, and Seniors Tour all included)
FIRST ROUND LEADERS 2024
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Niemann | 12 | 1.12 | 1.55 | 2.67 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 2.92 | 3.89 | 3.89 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 10 | 1.35 | 1.42 | 2.76 | 0.72 | -0.09 | 0.63 | 3.48 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
| Sebastian Soderberg | 10 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.36 | 1.52 | -0.6 | 0.92 | 1.88 | 2.69 | 2.69 |
| Collin Morikawa | 10 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 1.55 | 0.59 | 0.49 | 1.08 | 2.15 | 2.62 | 2.62 |
| Dean Burmester | 12 | 1.2 | 0.58 | 1.78 | 0.54 | 0.08 | 0.61 | 2.09 | 2.38 | 2.38 |
| Rory McIlroy | 11 | 1.35 | 1.07 | 2.42 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.24 | 2.56 | 2.36 | 2.36 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 10 | 0.14 | 0.41 | 0.54 | 0.11 | 0.61 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 2.35 | 2.35 |
| Jon Rahm | 8 | 0.91 | -0.1 | 0.84 | 0.29 | 1.21 | 1.5 | 1.13 | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| Alex Noren | 11 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 1.16 | 0.16 | 0.8 | 0.96 | 1.32 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 8 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 1.48 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 1.78 | 2.21 | 2.21 |
| Xander Schauffele | 11 | 0.26 | 1.24 | 1.5 | 0.34 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 1.84 | 2.07 | 2.07 |
| Jordan L Smith | 10 | 1.31 | 0.36 | 1.67 | 0.11 | -0.84 | -0.73 | 1.77 | 1.94 | 1.94 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 9 | 0.7 | 0.19 | 0.89 | 0.36 | 1.85 | 2.2 | 1.24 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
And here is that list dating back to 2020.
FIRST ROUND LEADERS SINCE 2020
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | 97 | 0.81 | 0.65 | 1.46 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.61 | 1.68 | 2.05 |
| Rory McIlroy | 98 | 0.87 | 0.51 | 1.38 | 0.05 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 1.43 | 1.98 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 116 | 0.74 | 0.55 | 1.29 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 1.65 | 1.96 |
| Xander Schauffele | 103 | 0.43 | 0.77 | 1.2 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.71 | 1.57 | 1.87 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 91 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 1.11 | 0.36 | 0.2 | 0.56 | 1.46 | 1.8 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 40 | 1.04 | -0.5 | 0.58 | 0.09 | -0.03 | 0.05 | 0.67 | 1.69 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 32 | 0.78 | 0.1 | 0.88 | 0.18 | 0.5 | 0.68 | 1.05 | 1.55 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 112 | 0.76 | 0.47 | 1.23 | -0.15 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 1.08 | 1.49 |
| Cameron Smith | 100 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.77 | 1.14 | 0.69 | 1.48 |
| Cameron Young | 94 | 0.89 | 0.41 | 1.29 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 1.45 | 1.44 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 54 | 0.58 | -0.1 | 0.48 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Dustin Johnson | 81 | 0.6 | 0.46 | 1.06 | 0.26 | 0 | 0.26 | 1.32 | 1.4 |
Next is a list of the ten best players in the opening round of a major since 2020.
FIRST ROUND LEADERS IN MAJORS SINCE 2020
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 15 | 0.73 | 1.23 | 1.96 | 1 | 0.79 | 1.79 | 2.97 | 3.65 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 14 | 0.63 | 1.47 | 2.1 | 0.45 | 0.9 | 1.35 | 2.54 | 3.45 |
| Viktor Hovland | 14 | 0.51 | 1.47 | 1.99 | 0.52 | 0.85 | 1.37 | 2.47 | 3.25 |
| Dustin Johnson | 15 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 1.48 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 1.37 | 2.3 | 2.79 |
| Will Zalatoris | 9 | 0.81 | 1.72 | 2.52 | -0.02 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 2.5 | 2.74 |
| Rory McIlroy | 15 | 1.23 | 0.57 | 1.8 | 0.12 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 1.91 | 2.59 |
| Cameron Smith | 15 | 0.43 | 0.79 | 1.21 | 0.21 | 1.12 | 1.33 | 1.41 | 2.52 |
| Rickie Fowler | 9 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 1.19 | 1.87 | 1.3 | 2.43 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 14 | 0.17 | 1.28 | 1.45 | 0.86 | -0.13 | 0.72 | 2.27 | 2.2 |
| Patrick Reed | 15 | 0.25 | 0.7 | 0.95 | 0.37 | 1.05 | 1.42 | 1.36 | 2.12 |
| Brooks Koepka | 14 | 0.2 | 1.16 | 1.36 | 0.03 | 0.61 | 0.63 | 1.42 | 2.02 |
| Justin Rose | 14 | -0.23 | 0.55 | 0.32 | 0.51 | 1.05 | 1.56 | 0.87 | 2.01 |
Finally, here are the 12 players that have started the best in the PGA Championship throughout their career (min six rounds).
PGA Championship First Round Leaders
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Hovland | 4 | 0.23 | 2.49 | 2.73 | 0.72 | 0.91 | 1.63 | 3.44 | 4.35 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 4 | 0.44 | 1.59 | 2.03 | 0.89 | 1.18 | 2.07 | 2.92 | 4.1 |
| Gary Woodland | 12 | 0.65 | 1.07 | 1.72 | 0.39 | 1.05 | 1.45 | 2.11 | 3.42 |
| Brooks Koepka | 11 | 0.58 | 1.49 | 2.07 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 1.5 | 2.77 | 3.25 |
| Jason Day | 14 | 1.12 | 1.82 | 2.94 | 0.38 | -0.06 | 0.32 | 3.33 | 2.91 |
| Corey Conners | 5 | 1.28 | 0.71 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.72 | 0.9 | 2.17 | 2.89 |
| Rory McIlroy | 15 | 1.07 | 1.53 | 2.59 | 0.28 | -0.51 | -0.23 | 2.88 | 2.87 |
| Justin Rose | 16 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 0.79 | 1.04 | 1.82 | 1.92 | 2.8 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 6 | 1.18 | 1.04 | 2.22 | -0.06 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 2.16 | 2.79 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 11 | 0.5 | 1.21 | 1.71 | 0.35 | 0.4 | 0.75 | 2.06 | 2.71 |
| Xander Schauffele | 7 | 0.74 | 0.7 | 1.44 | 0.21 | 1 | 1.22 | 1.65 | 2.66 |
| Dustin Johnson | 14 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 1.49 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 1.11 | 2.06 | 2.27 |
First-Round Leader Picks for 2024 PGA Championship
Earlier this week, I wrote in my First Clicks article that I liked Schauffele at 31-1 to get out to another fast start.
I still don’t mind Xander at his current price, but here are a few other names I have added.
Bryson DeChambeau 33
The more I read about this course, the more I am drawn to elite drivers of the golf ball, and DeChambeau is just that.
DeChambeau leads the LIV Golf tour with an average drive of 318.9 yards, and his club head speed remains among the elite in the sport.
At a course that will put a lot of mid-to-long irons in the these players hands, I’ll lean on DeChambeau, who should have an advantage over his peers early while everyone is still getting settled in.
The American has also made it a habit to show up and make an impact early in recent majors.
Last month, he led the Masters after 18 holes. In 2023, he got off to fast starts at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship.
Over his last 36 rounds, only Scottie Scheffler has gained four or more strokes on the field in an individual round more times than DeChambeau.
He has also gained strokes on the field in all six of the opening rounds he’s played in this event.
Ludvig Aberg 29
It didn’t take long for Ludvig Aberg to get comfortable with major championship golf.
It’s hard to believe, but the No. 6 golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings didn’t debut in a major until last month at the Masters.
And if his second place finish indicates what’s to come, watch out.
Aberg enters the week after withdrawing from the Wells Fargo Championship due to a knee issue, but after hearing him speak to the media on Wednesday, I’m ready to roll out the 24-year-old as the first-round leader.
Circling back to driver. I’m not sure how many people alive can hit one better than this guy.
Similar to DeChambeau, Aberg will benefit this week from hitting it further and having shorter clubs into these greens than most other guys in the event.
This year on the PGA Tour, Aberg ranks second in approach shots from 150-175 yards, 19th from 175-200 and 22nd from 200-225.
Aberg also has caddie Joe Skovron on his bag. He helped Rickie Fowler gain 3.206 strokes in the opening round of the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, en route to a tie for third.
Patrick Cantlay 40
It’s been a confusing 2024 for Patrick Cantlay.
The American has just one top 10 in his last six starts, but the beginning of tournaments hasn’t been his issue.
Cantlay enters this week third on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring with an average of 67.67.
I also like Cantlay on Thursday this week because of his past success with Jack Nicklaus-designed courses.
Cantlay has eight career victories, three coming on Nicklaus-designed tracks.
Jake Knapp 100
The future of golf has arrived, and Jake Knapp is one of the archetypes.
A winner this year in Mexico, Knapp possesses an amount of power and swagger unmatched by most golfers in this field.
What makes Knapp so fun to watch is his golf swing. If I only had one word to describe it, it would be “fluid.”
If I had three words to describe Knapp’s swing, it would be “fluid and free.”
Knapp ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in club head speed, which could help him separate from the field early in the week.
Over his last 36 rounds, Knapp has gained four or more shots to the field at the same rate as Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama, two guys with much shorter odds in this market. So I’ll end my day with a dart on him doing something very unlikely.