Setting The Pick – NBA award predictions

Award favourites are priced as frontrunners for a reason, but more often than not the chalky option fails to go wire to wire.

Luka Doncic is the poster child for this theory.

For the last three season, Doncic has opened the season as the NBA’s betting favourite for Most Valuable Player. His best finish was fifth in voting two seasons ago.

Over the past 10 seasons, the preseason betting favourite has only come away with the hardware three times.

I’m not denying the favourites their fair due, but it’s certainly more fun writing about dart throws I like.

Here are my three favourite non-chalk award picks for 2023-24.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Most Valuable Player (+600)

Nikola Jokic opens the year as the betting favourite for MVP at +430 and I don’t think anyone can argue his claim.

Coming off a dominant playoff run to the chip, Jokic had the shortest odds to three-peat as MVP from January until the last few weeks of the season. Joel Embiid overtook The Joker very late during a stretch when Denver lost five of six games in March.

At the price above, Antetokounmpo is third in pole position, the same spot he finished in last year’s voting.

More than any other NBA award, narrative plays a major role in how the media votes. This season, Antetokounmpo has one of the most compelling cases.

Best player, best team: The Milwaukee Bucks head into this year as the co-favourites to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy alongside the Boston Celtics. They’re both priced at +380 on FanDuel in a tier of their own.

With the exception of Jokic and Russell Westbrook, no MVP in the past 10 years has played for a team worse than third overall in the NBA.

The Bucks won a league-best 58 games last year and no one can deny Antetokounmpo’s impact on their success.

One of the main reasons he was discredited for being atop the league was games played. He missed 19 games, the most ever in his 10-year career, and wound up playing two games short of the current 65-game minimum threshold set by the NBA.

Chances are he surpasses that threshold this year and with Damian Lillard joining forces, there’s room for this team to hit 60 wins.

Redemption arc: The top-seeded Bucks suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Heat during the first round of last year’s playoffs.

Much was made of Antetokounmpo’s answer in the post-game press conference about their season not being a “failure.”

Rumours have swirled over his future in Milwaukee for many seasons and their recent trade for Lillard demonstrates their commitment to keeping him happy.

He hinted at his frustrations with team success; the ball is now in his court to make this pairing work.

Lillard also has a lot on the line this season. His trade demands were answered, now he needs to prove he’s a championship-calibre player.

Minutes and offensive upside: Antetokounmpo is coming off his highest scoring season of his career (31.1 ppg) but believe it or not, there’s room for growth.

With Lillard’s offensive gravity on the perimeter, The Greek Freak might find more space to operate than any point in his career. Add in the threat of their pick-and-roll attack and your imagination should go wild.

The other factor that could open the door to more scoring is the firing of previous head coach, Mike Budenholzer.

During his five-year tenure in Milwaukee, Antetokounmpo was capped at 32.2 mpg. That would have ranked outside the top-50 last season.

New coach Adrian Griffin was a former Raptors assistant coach under Nick Nurse, who was notorious for playing his starters heavy minutes.

More minutes and defensive attention on Lillard could make this a banner scoring season for the two-time MVP.

Joel Embiid, Defensive Player of the Year (+2500)

If you forget everything I write in this column, take one note – the last 10 winners of DPOY all played for a top-three defensive rated team.

The Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy is an individual award but it’s all about team performance.

Embiid is a known entity on the offensive end but hasn’t gotten much notoriety for his defensive impact. His best showing for the award was a fourth-place finish five seasons ago.

Here’s why he could change the narrative.

Track record without James Harden: The Athletic’s Shams Charania recently reported that Harden is away from the team.

It’s an ominous tweet considering the volatility of his future with the 76ers.

If Harden sits out the season or gets traded to another team, it might hurt Philly overall but benefit them on the defensive end.

The Sixers finished eighth in defensive rating last season which is good but not elite. During a 14-game absence by Harden at the beginning of last year, Philly’s d-rating jumped up to 105.7, which was No.1 in the league.

The LA Clippers are the most likely trade partner for Harden, and Terance Mann is a name that consistently gets mentioned. Should he end up on the Sixers, he’ll add to an already accomplished defensive roster.

Defence-first roster: Embiid is surrounded by several defence-first players in their rotation.

PJ Tucker might be one of the oldest players in the NBA, but he continues to be a highly touted defender taking on the toughest assignments.

Should Harden sit out, De’Anthony Melton is likely to replace him in the starting-five and is one of the most underrated perimeter defenders in the league.

Then there’s Patrick Beverley, one of the newest additions to Philly, who’s a known commodity as an NBA pest.

If the Sixers regress offensively but elevate their defence, count on Embiid getting credit for being their anchor on that side of the floor.

New coach Nick Nurse: Raptor fans are very familiar with Nurse and his defensive ingenuity.

Philly’s new coach is known for applying unorthodox defensive schemes and his creativity could inject some new life for them at that end.

Nurse had the luxury of coaching two former DPOYs in Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol, leading Toronto to the No.2 defence during their championship run.

Looking at the list of options priced shorter than Embiid for this award, I only count Memphis and Cleveland as probable bets to finish with a better defensive rating. Every other candidate’s team has defensive flaws.

Embiid is the 10th choice to win the award.

Ime Udoka, Coach of the Year (+2000)

Over the past five seasons, every winner of this award coached a team that increased their win total by 13 to 20 games.

The aforementioned Nurse is the lone exception in the bubble season and even then, Toronto’s win percentage improved versus the championship season prior.

Houston comes into this year building off a lowly 22-win campaign. The roster is young and full of potential, but their inexperience has kept them from winning games.

Enter hard-nosed coach, Ime Udoka, who received tons of praise for elevating the Boston Celtics from a .500 level team to second in the East during his one-year stint.

Defence-first: Udoka hangs his hat on discipline and defence, two things imperative for Houston’s success.

The Rockets finished second-last in defensive rating last season consistently getting beat in transition and off turnovers.

Preseason needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but the Rockets have jumped up to the third best defensive rating through four games against San Antonio, New Orleans, and Indiana.

It’s a positive sign and a convenient stat to measure his impact.

New locker room leaders: If you simply measure Fred VanVleet by his stats, you might question how he got his new $129 million contract. But everything you’ll read from Houston media will point to his leadership role elevating his teammates.

Even though he’s only 29, on this team, he’s the dinosaur of the group. Three of the projected starters for Houston are 21 years old or younger.

Dillon Brooks also joins this team and brings a defensive emphasis matching up with Udoka’s skillset.

FanDuel has Houston’s win total set at 31.5 implying a 10-win improvement year-over-year.

If the Rockets find themselves in contention for a play-in tournament seed, Udoka’s price will surely be listed among the favourites come April.