The NBA enters its final stretch of the year with roughly a third of the regular season left.
All-Star Weekend and the trade deadline are in the rearview mirror.
Teams are getting their final pit stop before picking up the intensity going into the playoffs.
This is an interesting period in the calendar, with the break providing respite to teams in many different ways.
Veteran players use this time to rest and revitalize, teams dealing with injuries benefit from a stop in the schedule, and all the trade deadline buyers get more practice time for their new team members.
With play resuming on Thursday, who’s coming out firing? Who’s already got one foot in Cabo?
Here are three teams worth targeting over the next few games.
The Hornets are hungry
I’m not going to lie. I’m a bit aghast to be spotlighting the Hornets.
Ahead of the deadline, they waived the white flag by trading away Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington and Gordon Hayward in exchange for future draft capital.
They’ve underachieved all season and were on pace for a Top-5 draft pick.
Charlotte received a handful of players who were essentially jettisoned by their previous teams – Tre Mann, Davis Bertans, Vasilije Micic, Grant Williams, and Seth Curry.
But believe it or not, since their new team members have taken the court, they’ve been the best team in the NBA against the spread, going plus-63 over three games.
They emphatically beat Memphis, Indiana, and Atlanta, all as 5.5-point or worse underdogs.
While none of these five players project to be All-Star calibre talents, they’ve brought a level of veteran play the Hornets lacked for most of the year.
Charlotte has been decimated by injuries and plugging holes with lesser-known players.
All five new team members profile as solid role players and have thrived on the Hornets with the increased playing time.
This situation feels reminiscent of the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights in their inaugural season when all the castaways banded together with a chip on their shoulders.
These five won’t combine for a championship run but have enough motivation to prove they deserve more respect.
Mann is the only one in the starting five and has performed well filling in for LaMelo Ball.
The other four have monopolized all of the bench minutes and have been crushing their opponents.
Over three games, they’ve outscored the opposing bench units by 38 points.
Three weeks ago, head coach Steve Clifford said his team was “under-talented” in a post-game press conference, trying to justify their poor play.
Considering all the coaches being fired across the league, Clifford is surely motivated to prove he isn’t the problem.
The Hornets might not keep this winning streak going, but I’m betting they’ll continue to exceed expectations in the near future.
The play: Bet on the Hornets against the spread
Utah crashing once again
The Utah Jazz have been a roller coaster of a team to follow this year.
They looked to be in full rebuild mode to open the season, going 7-16 to start.
Then head coach Will Hardy made some changes to his starting lineup in the middle of December and got his team on a 15-4 hot streak.
Now, ahead of the deadline, the Jazz traded away three of their rotation players – Simone Fontecchio, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji, signalling a commitment to future seasons.
Since Feb. 8th, Utah has lost four straight and is the polar opposite of Charlotte.
They’ve been minus-13.1 against the spread, league-worst.
What worked for them during this winter resurgence?
They were deadly on the offensive end.
From January 1st through February 8th, Utah owned the second-best offensive rating (122.1), running two full five-man lineups.
It wasn’t a traditional NBA rotation – the minutes between the bench and starters were significantly more balanced than most teams.
The best five players weren’t starting games for Utah, but they were the best fit, according to coach Hardy.
Losing Fontecchio, Olynyk, and Agbaji didn’t just deplete their talent, it messed up their chemistry.
In these last four games, their offensive rating has dipped to 14th, and their defence (which wasn’t a strength) is now league-worst.
There’s no sugar-coating it: the talent drop-off to Taylor Hendricks and Talen Horton-Tucker makes this team far less competitive.
Those are two young players the organization is keen on developing, even at the cost of winning.
Additionally, rookie Keyonte George was injected into the starting five, replacing lockdown defender Kris Dunn, further signalling their focus on player development.
While the Jazz have capable players across the rotation, these choices simply make the team less competitive on a nightly basis.
How they get handicapped for future games should shift drastically once play resumes on Thursday.
The Play: Bet against the Jazz against the spread
Dallas pushes their chips in
I want to open this blurb by stating my belief – the Mavericks aren’t clear-cut deadline winners.
Sure, they were one of the splashier teams, but the cost-benefit analysis of their transactions is still to be determined.
For now, Dallas is poised to outperform their record before Feb. 8th.
With Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington in town, the Mavs have bulked up their frontcourt and established a fortified eight-man rotation.
Adding Gafford ensures Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have a capable rim-running centre for all 48 minutes.
Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II will contend for the most alley-oops for the remainder of the season.
Washington is being asked to step up as their primary ‘3-and-D’ wing, a critical role in any Doncic-led roster.
Health has not been kind to the Mavs this season, but if Irving can stay on the court the rest of the way, Dallas has a legitimate shot of getting back into the Top-6.
Their offence has never been in question. They rank 11th on the season even with Irving missing 22 games.
It’s their 19th-ranked defence that’s held them back.
Over the past three games that Gafford and Washington have played, they’ve jumped to first in defensive rating (96.9).
The caveat is obviously opponent strength, having faced the Spurs and the Wizards.
But they also faced the Thunder in the debut of their two new team members, crushing them by 35 points.
Doncic and Irving on their own is enough to keep this offence afloat.
If the Mavs truly sort things out on the defensive end as they have these first three games, they’ll likely keep beating the spread.
They have a tough three-game schedule post-break versus Phoenix, Indiana, and Cleveland.
It’s a great test to see if they’re ready to be in the championship contender mix.
The play: Bet on the Mavericks against the spread
