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Morning Coffee: What are the odds Matthews scores 70 goals?

Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs Auston Matthews - The Canadian Press

Where will Auston Matthews ultimately rank among the greatest goal scorers in NHL history?

That’s one of several Matthews-related questions I’ve heard asked on the TSN property in recent days.

Here’s another one.

Will Matthews score 70 this season?

With 62 goals in 73 games, Matthews needs eight goals over the Toronto Maple Leafs’ final eight regular season games to reach the 70-goal mark.

What are the odds that Matthews scores 70?

Thanks to the traders at FanDuel, we have the answer.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024.

What Are The Odds Auston Matthews Scores 70 Goals?

Once upon a time, Matthews was +600 to win the Rocket Richard Trophy at FanDuel.

In fact, it wasn’t that long ago.

It was nine months ago, to be exact.

By the time the opening night of the NHL season rolled around, Matthews was +300 to win the Rocket at FanDuel.

You could still find him at even-money to win that award in late December.

It was essentially last call to bet on the Rocket Richard Trophy market at FanDuel.

It’s easy to forget now, but Matthews started the season with 14 goals in his first 21 games – a relatively slow start by his remarkable standards.

Let’s just say he turned it up a notch after that.

In December, he more than doubled that goal total with 15 goals in just 12 games.

Then in January, he scored 11 goals in 13 games.

In February, he scored 13 goals in 12 games.

With 39 goals in 37 games from December through February, it seemed inevitable that Matthews’ ridiculous pace would eventually slow, which it has with nine goals in 15 games since the start of February.

Still, Matthews needs eight goals over Toronto’s final eight regular season games to reach the 70-goal mark.

As far as I’m concerned, that seems reasonable.

Six of Toronto’s remaining eight games are against teams that rank among the bottom-11 in the league in goals allowed per game.

They also get another game against the Florida Panthers, which Matthews just scored twice against in a 6-4 win on Monday night.

It was the 17th multi-goal performance of the season by Matthews – the most in a single season by any player over the last 30 years.

Eight goals in eight games would seem that much more realistic if Matthews could produce one or two more multi-goal performances down the final stretch.

So, what are the actual odds that Matthews scores 70 or more goals this season?

The traders at FanDuel are giving him a 25 per cent chance.

Matthews to score 70+ goals is +300 at FanDuel.

That number translates to a 25 per cent implied probability.

Matthews is -150 to score a goal tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

He’s +380 to score two or more goals.

He’s also 17-to-1 to score a hat-trick.

Could you imagine the reaction if he scores a hat-trick against the rival Lightning tonight in Toronto?

I might sprinkle on it just to have the ticket in case it happens.

With an average of 0.85 goals per game this season, Matthews is already in a class of his own when it comes to scoring goals at an elite level.

He’s already scored a career-high 62 goals this season.

Now he could become the first player to record a 70-goal season in more than 30 years.

Hockey fans are already debating where the 26-year-old Matthews will ultimately end up among the greatest goal scorers in NHL history.

At 3-to-1 odds, you can add me to the list of fans that will be cheering for Matthews to score 70 this season.