The Toronto Blue Jays are in a tough spot in their American League Championship Series after losing the first two games at home against the Seattle Mariners, but there can still be hope for the top seed in the American League.
After the offence pummeled New York Yankees pitching in the AL Division Series to the tune of 50 hits and 34 runs scored over four games, the Blue Jays have mustered just eight hits and four runs scored over the first two games of the ALCS.
But things can change quickly in a seven game series, and ESPN’s Buster Olney isn’t ready to count the Blue Jays out yet.
Olney joined First Up on TSN1050 Tuesday morning to discuss the state of the ALCS, why the offence has struggled and how the Blue Jays can work their way back into contention in Seattle.
“It’s such a small sample size, it’s hard to draw larger conclusions, but the bottom line is they haven’t gotten it done,” Olney said of the Jays’ offence against Seattle.
George Springer has two hits, including a home run, and Nathan Lukes has three hits already, but a major hole in the lineup has been first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The franchise cornerstone, who signed a 14-year, $500 million extension in April and went 9-for-17 with three home runs and nine runs batted in against the Yankees, is 0-for-7 through two games so far.
If the team is to turn it around and make this a competitive series, it’s going to take an improved effort from Guerrero.
“The reason why we gave Vladdy so much credit in the Yankees series is it does feel like ‘as Vlad goes, so go the Blue Jays,’ Olney said. ”If the big dog doesn’t hit, that’s going to be an issue. I’m sure Vladdy knows that and embraces that. I saw an interview at his [locker] and you could see it on his face - he was wearing it, the fact that they’re down 2-0 after playing in front of their home crowd."
Toronto has been completely dominated by the Mariners’ bullpen through two games - in nine innings against relief pitchers, the Jays have one hit, four walks and five strikeouts. Toronto’s bullpen has not operated on the same level - in both losses, Blue Jays manager John Schneider pulled the starting pitcher with the score tied only to have the reliever brought in surrender the eventual winning run.
“I think a lot of the time the managers go into these games with the idea of ‘Okay, when we get to this spot, that’s when I’m going to be looking for the exit ramp,’ as opposed to following their eyes,” said Olney. “John Schneider’s had a lot of success this year, he knows far more about pitching than I do, but that felt like an example in the moment of following the pre-game plan versus watching, or what you were seeing.”
Schneider pulled Game 1 starter Kevin Gausman after 5.2 innings and 76 pitches, after the veteran had allowed a game-tying home run to Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh and then walked Julio Rodriguez. The Mariners took the lead one batter later then Jorge Polanco laced a single into the outfield.
The Blue Jays ended up using five relief pitchers in that game, which Schneider indicated played into his decision to allow Game 2 starter Trey Yesavage to pitch into the fifth inning despite his velocity dropping through his outing. Yesavage allowed two baserunners before he was pulled in the fifth, and Polanco launched a three-run homer to give the Mariners a 6-3 lead two batters later.
“You consider [pulling Yesavage after four innings], but at the same time, it’s tough to continue to churn through bullpen arms,” Schneider said. “You’re taking into account the uniqueness of his arsenal, and you’re taking it batter to batter there ... It was a tough decision, for sure.”
The pitching decisions have not worked out for Schneider or the Blue Jays in the first two games, but that will end up a secondary storyline if the offence can’t get going in Game 3, where George Kirby is scheduled to start for Seattle.
Olney thinks that they have a chance to return to ALDS form if Kirby is not at his best.
“Kirby has been such a weird guy this year,” Olney said. “There have been times - like those six innings against the Tigers in the ALDS - where he has been dominant, he’s been great, but he’s had a lot of other games where he just got hammered, where he’s given up six, seven runs. I’m really curious as to which George Kirby is going to go out there.”
Seattle’s starter in Game 4, Luis Castillo, is an established veteran with a lot of success in the majors, but with diminishing velocity in his age-32 season, his strikeout rate has plummeted over the last three years from 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings in 2023 to a career-low 8.1 per nine innings this season.
“Luis Castillo, two, three years ago was one of the biggest star pitchers in baseball, his stuff is diminished. I think if you’re the Blue Jays, what you take out of it is: there’s probably going to be opportunity there,” Olney said.
“I think the Mariners are a very good team but it’s not an unbeatable staff. We’ll just have to see how [the Blue Jays] respond. The Mariners play so well at home, their pitching is significantly better at home than on the road.”
Game 3 of the ALCS goes from Seattle on Wednesday night.
