For all of the questions surrounding the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays, one stands out from of the others: What is going on with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
Fresh off the heels of one of the all-time great postseason performances in the history of the sport, Guerrero was expected to be an aircraft carrier for the Blue Jays following the departure of longtime running mate Bo Bichette. This was now undisputedly his team, and they would go as he did.
Through the first 61 games of the year, the $500 million man has yet to find the level needed to carry Toronto’s offence, and the results have shown themselves in the team’s 29-31 record.
Guerrero is sitting on just three home runs and 12 extra-base hits on the year, resembling more of a slap singles hitter from a bygone era than the slugging superstar that lit up October to the tune of a 1.092 OPS just six months ago.
“Every time we see one good thing, you want it to be ‘that’ moment,” MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson said on TSN1050 radio Wednesday morning. “Every time Vladdy turns and hits a double to left field, we’re saying ‘There it is, he’s back. There’s Vladdy, he’s going to go on a run right now.’ It just hasn’t happened, and I’m really, genuinely surprised it’s taking this long.
“Vladdy, right now, is surviving on his natural, raw ability and hand-eye coordination, which he is gifted at, but his full swing is not there and it’s obvious that it’s not there.”
While he remains elite in both expected batting average (98th percentile) and strikeout percentage (97th percentile), the five-time All-Star is chasing pitches out of the zone at a 31.2 per cent clip and has halved his barrel rate from last year at just 6.8 per cent, both marks ranking near the bottom-third of all qualified hitters.
Those numbers would suggest that Guerrero has begun to settle for swinging at so-called “pitcher’s pitches”, as opposed to holding out for a mistake that he can do damage with.
Now, Guerrero has still been one of Toronto’s most productive hitters this year, as reflected in his 120 WRC+. He in the 77th percentile with a 12 per cent walk rate, and currently has more base-on-balls (30) than strikeouts (25) this year. But the Blue Jays desperately need him to begin driving the ball for extra-bases if they are to make a run similar to the one they had during the second half of the 2025 season.
“If Vladdy even had eight or nine home runs right now, which would still be kind of underwhelming, the Blue Jays are .500, or above .500, because those extra five of six home runs would flip some losses into wins,” Matheson added.
“We’ve been saying this for weeks but until Vladdy turns this around, the Blue Jays are going to be stuck waiting on him. It’s all about Vladdy right now.”
Toronto currently ranks 22nd in runs scored and 26th in on-base plus slugging on the year, a far cry from last season in which they were top five in both categories.
Injuries to middle of the order bats like Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, and Anthony Santander have undoubtedly played a role in the offence’s struggles, but Guerrero needs to find it soon if the Blue Jays are to get where they want to go this season.
“You saw Vladdy in the World Series, in the ALCS,” Matheson said. “I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a performance like that…and now you see someone who looks average this season.
“Now, Vladdy is not an average baseball player. He is great and he will be great again, but the Jays don’t have a lot of room for patience. The clock is starting to tick. I know there’s a lot of baseball games but it’s got to start coming pretty soon.”
