Defending AL champion Blue Jays still in playoff mix despite trying season

Not much has gone right for the defending American League champion Toronto Blue Jays in 2026.

They’ve dealt with numerous injuries to significant players, seen their $500 million man in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. struggle to find his form at the plate and had their offence as a whole take a major step back from the one that catapulted the team to a World Series appearance just a season ago.

Let’s take a closer look at what has gone wrong so far this season and what needs to change over the next few months if the Blue Jays are going to return to the postseason.

Where do they sit in the standings?

After dropping back-to-back one run games to the San Diego Padres this weekend (the Jays are 11-17 in one-run games this season after going 27-20 last year), Toronto enters the All-Star break with a 45-51 record, placing them last in the American League East, 12 games behind the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays.

Defending their AL East crown is a likely a bridge way too far, but somehow the Jays are still very much in the running for a playoff spot via the wild-card race.

The Seattle Mariners, who have also struggled this season after appearing in the American League Championship Series in 2025, and the Minnesota Twins are currently tied for the third and final wild-card spot with 48-49 records.

The red-hot Boston Red Sox, winners of their past nine games, are just a half game behind while the Houston Astros are 1.5 games back with the Baltimore Orioles sitting a full two games out of a playoff spot.

Next comes the Jays at 2.5 games back, still in the mix, but with plenty of work to do with numerous teams to outplay with just 66 games remaining in the season.

With the MLB Trade Deadline set for Aug. 3, the Jays will need to hit the ground running once the season resumes on Friday with a visit to Rogers Centre from the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox.

Toronto started the 2026 on the right foot with a three-game home sweep of the Athletics. However, by the following Sunday, they were a game under .500 and haven’t gotten over that mark despite opportunities to do so.

Things looked like they were turning around in late May after a four-game winning streak, highlighted by a five-run comeback against the Baltimore Orioles, had the Jays sitting at 29-29 on the season.

On May 30, Toronto held a 5-1 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth with an opportunity to get over the .500 mark until an implosion by then-closer Jeff Hoffman led to the O’s scoring five runs in the inning for the 6-5 walk-off victory, the worst loss of the Jays’ season.

The Blue Jays again found themselves at .500 (39-39) a few weeks later with the Houston Astros in town. This time Tyler Rogers blew a two-run lead in the ninth inning before Joey Loperfido, formerly of the Jays, hammered a three-run shot in the 11th to give his side the victory.

The result began a six-game losing streak as the Blue Jays haven’t gotten close to .500 ever since.

Despite all this, the playoffs are still in sight.

With the American League being so mediocre this season, the third wild-card team could end up having the fewest wins since the MLB expanded the playoffs in 2022.

Here’s a look at how many wins third wild-card teams finished the regular season with in recent years.

Third Wild-Card Teams

According to projections from FanGraphs, the White Sox and Red Sox are on pace to finish tied for the third wild-card spot with identical 81-81 records, which would be the lowest total since the playoffs expanded in 2022.

The Jays would need to produce a record of 37-29 at bare minimum the rest of the way to finish above the .500 mark at 82-80. However, 82 wins may still not be enough to make the postseason if another team in that cluster gets hot this summer.

More inconsistency in the latter half of July could force Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins to look ahead to the 2027 campaign and sell some assets at the deadline.

For now, Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease, fan favourite Ernie Clement and closer Louis Varland alongside manager John Schneider, will head to Philadelphia for the Midsummer Classic while the rest of the team takes a rest from a trying 2026 campaign.

What needs to change?

Simply put, if the Blue Jays are going to make the playoffs, Guerrero needs to turn his season around.

The 27-year-old was the best hitter on the planet last October as he produced a .397 average alongside an incredible 1.289 OPS with eight home runs and 15 RBIs over 18 playoff games, leading the Jays to within one win of the World Series crown.

The drop-off in 2026 has been astonishing, the first season of a massive 14-year, $500 deal, leaving members of the Blue Jays’ front office, fans and analysts scratching their heads.

Over 91 games, Guerrero is hitting .262 with a career-low .703 OPS with six home runs, 41 RBIs and 42 walks. Blue Jays fans have yet to see their beloved homegrown star go deep at Rogers Centre this season.

Despite his struggles, Guerrero was elected by fans to start in the All-Star Game, which would be his sixth appearance in the Midsummer Classic.

Guerrero tuned down the invite, citing his desire to rest and recuperate for the second half as he’s been dealing with back issues for weeks.

The first baseman showed signs of life recently, however, smacking two homers over the last four games before the break, including a game-tying three-run shot against the Padres on Saturday night.

Guerrero isn’t the only player who needs to turn things around.

George Springer was likely Toronto’s regular season MVP last year but hasn’t performed nearly as well in 2026.

The 36-year-old, playing in the final season of a six-year, $150 million contract, is hitting just .218 with nine home runs and 22 RBIs alongside a .677 OPS over 66 games.

Elsewhere, catcher Alejandro Kirk, who was an All-Star in 2025, has yet to find any consistency after returning from a two-month injury absence in mid-June, hitting just .202 with two home runs, nine RBIs and a .587 OPS.

After a terrific season in 2025, centre fielder Daulton Varsho is also struggling with an OPS under .700 while also appearing to be not as sharp defensively.

Not to mention left-handed slugger Addison Barger, who has played just nine games in 2026 due to various injuries.

Luckily for the Blue Jays, third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has been a delight in his first season in the majors following a decade-long run in Japan.

The 30-year-old leads the Blue Jays with 22 home runs and 62 RBIs despite striking out 118 times over 339 at-bats.

Ernie Clement’s historic postseason last October wasn’t a mirage as the 30-year-old second baseman has been the team’s most consistent hitter with a .296 average alongside eight home runs and 32 RBIs, earning his first All-Star nod.

Toronto is hopeful outfielder Jesus Sanchez, hitting .274 with seven home runs and 29 RBIs, will be able to return soon as the 28-year-old hasn’t played since June 26 with a right ankle sprain.

The pitching needs to improve as well.

Aside from All-Star starter Dylan Cease, the rest of the Blue Jays staff has been far less reliable than in 2025 as Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer have dealt with inconsistency and injury throughout the season.

Another arm for the rotation might be an addition the Jays need if they’re still in the playoff race by the trade deadline.

What does the schedule look like?

The Jays begin the unofficial second half with a seven-game home stand against the White Sox and AL East-leading Tampa Bays before heading to Fenway for an important series against the Boston Red Sox.

Toronto has series against all the teams in the wild-card playoff race aside for the Twins, so there will be opportunity to move up the standings.

Blue Jays’ Schedule

They will play 30 games in 31 days when they return from the All-Star break The Blue Jays have 32 games remaining at home and 34 on the road.