It is official: The Toronto Blue Jays will play the New York Yankees in the best-of-five American League Division Series. The two teams with the best records in the American League will square off, starting Saturday afternoon in Toronto. The Jays won the season series 8-5, including going 6-1 at home.
It will be a tough series. The Yankees’ starting pitching is really good, led by Max Fried and followed by lefty Carlos Rodon and rookie sensation Cam Schlittler. But none of those three will start Game 1, which gives the Jays an opportunity to get off to a good start in the series. The Jays will have to seemingly do it without the valuable bat of shortstop Bo Bichette, who is still recovering from a strained PCL in his left knee.
Having home-field advantage should pay dividends for Toronto, the team with the AL’s best home record, just as it did during the regular season when the Jays won six of seven games against the Yankees at the Rogers Centre. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushes left-handed pitchers (.326/.428/.519) and the Yankees will likely start three of the five games with a lefty on the mound.
The Jays will have to contain the powerful Yankee bookends of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice and Austin Wells are all dangerous from the left side. The Yankees led all of baseball with 274 home runs. The Jays hit 191 (11th). Home runs are the currency of offence in October, so Toronto pitchers will have to keep the ball in the park to win.
The Yankees also have speed – they stole 134 bases compared to just 77 for the Jays – so it will be imperative for the Jays to hold runners on and for Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk to throw well from behind the plate.
Defensively, there is no comparison between the two teams. The Jays are excellent at run prevention while the Yankees are prone to errors. If the Jays can keep the games close, the Yankees might be undone by self-inflicted wounds. New York’s plan is to try to outslug the mistakes.
Both the Jays and Yankees have had bullpen issues during the season that seemed to stabilize in mid-September. But a bullpen that has shown it is vulnerable will always be vulnerable to collapse, and it is tough to overcome a game blown by a closer in the postseason.
Rotation speculation
One of the big questions for the Blue Jays is who will be part of the starting rotation for this series.
I believe Kevin Gausman will get the Game 1 start and Shane Bieber will get the call in one of the first three games, as well. Jose Berrios is out of the picture because of a sore elbow. Chris Bassitt is likely to be activated from the injured list (back inflammation), so he is an option. Rookie Trey Yesavage, who has shown great stuff, is certainly an exciting option. Eric Lauer is the lone lefty option, but he might better serve as a long man in the ‘pen to back up all four right-handed starters. Max Scherzer is the senior member of the staff, but he has struggled in September with a 0-3 record and a 10.20 ERA.
I would start Gausman Game 1, then Bassitt, if available, in Game 2 because he was 8-0 with a 2.71 ERA at home and 3-9 5.47 ERA on the road. Then Bieber would start Game 3, which is such an important swing game in a five-game series. I’d give Yesavage the ball in Game 4, with Gausman on the mound again in Game 5 if necessary
Series prediction
The Jays will have to be at their best because this Yankee team is playing well now and already has its teeth sharpened in a postseason series. Game 1 will be critical, as will home-field advantage. The Jays will win in five games.
More playoff predictions
American League Division Series: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers showed heart and resiliency in winning the wild-card round after giving away their 15.5-game lead over the Guardians en route to losing the division title. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in the American League and he is in line to pitch on Sunday in Game 2. That would allow him to be available to start Game 5, as well. The Mariners can’t let it get to Game 5, which means they better have deep starting pitching a good bullpen and a powerful offence. Check, check and check. The Mariners will outslug and outpitch the Tigers. Seattle wins in four games.
National League Division Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers wiped the field with the Cincinnati Reds in the wild-card round as they swept the series. The Dodgers’ starting pitching is daunting and healthy. They have a great lineup that is currently firing on all cylinders. The Phillies have tremendous starting pitching, as well, and they will likely throw lefties in four of the five games if the series goes that deep. The Dodgers were only 24-23 against lefty starters this season. Offensively, the Phillies have excellent depth and grit. This will come down to a battle of bullpens and the Phillies have the better one. Phillies win in five games.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
The Brewers held off the Cubs all season long and won the division by five games. The Cubs score with power, but they also have speed and can produce runs in multiple ways. The Brewers don’t have the slugging of the Cubs, but they certainly have speed and know how to use it as one of the best base-running teams in baseball. Both teams put the ball in play and take their walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong is heating up, as is Michael Busch. Seiya Suzuki is locked in, and Kyle Tucker is getting healthier. The Cubs hope to get rookie ace Cade Horton back from a broken rib. Brandon Woodruff, one of the Brewers’ best pitchers, finished the season injured and it is unclear if he will be available. The Brew Crew did get closer Trevor Megill back, but it remains uncertain what his role will be. The layoff will hurt the Brewers, who rely upon grit and energy and continuously pushing forward. They have been waiting for five days to get started. The Cubs win the series in four games.
