Every Major League Baseball season is different than the one before it. The expectations are different and the results are different. Rosters can look alike from one year to the next, and yet the standings don’t look alike at all. Or the rosters can be very different, with significant off-season acquisitions, yet the improvements don’t result in the expected changes on the field.
Why is this? Because baseball happens. It’s a funny game. Nothing is exactly as it seems on paper.
June 1 is a good threshold during a season to evaluate teams and players because we have a decent sample size to use to compare and contrast them.
This season, we have plenty of examples of the unpredictability of the game. The small-market Tampa Rays are leading the AL East where the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were all expected to be better than them. The Yankees have been good also, while the Jays and Red Sox have underperformed expectations.
The Cleveland Guardians are leading the AL Central, as we’ve come to expect, but the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have been abysmal, collapsing right out of the gate and sitting with the two worst records in the American League. We certainly expected more from both teams, but it is the Chicago White Sox, who lost 121 games in 2024 and 100 games in 2025, in second place in the Central with a 32-25 record. Nobody saw this coming.
The Seattle Mariners were clear favourites to win the AL West and to contend for the AL pennant this year. They are leading the West, but only because every other team in the division is below .500. Star catcher Cal Raleigh hit 60 homers last year, setting a record for switch hitters and catchers. This season he is hitting .161 with seven homers.
You get the point.
In 2025, the Jays were 31-29 after the first 60 games. We all know what happened from that point on, as they went 63-39 the rest of the way. The Jays tied the Yankees with an AL-best 94-68 record and went on to win the AL pennant. We didn’t anticipate that kind of leap forward last year at this time, but it happened.
This year the Jays are 29-31, just two games behind last year’s pace. But that doesn’t mean we can reasonably expect two fewer wins than last season. It can go in either direction from this point.
The Jays can get their act together and make a run similar to last year. There is reason to believe that it will get better. They’ve been bitten by the injury bug to some key players who should get healthy soon.
Catcher Alejandro Kirk, who has been out with a broken thumb, is critical offensively and defensively and was coming off an excellent season a year ago.
Outfielder Addison Barger, who has dealt with ankle and arm issues, gave the Jays a lefty power threat in the lineup with his development last season. He has only 22 at-bats so far this year.
The season-ending knee injury to starting pitcher Cody Ponce in his first start impacted the depth of the staff.
The Jays hoped a full season from former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber would elevate the rotation to one of the best in either league. He remains on the injured list.
Trey Yesavage has only made seven starts due to a shoulder issue, but he has looked great since his return.
Dylan Cease got the biggest deal for any starting pitcher this off-season but strained his hamstring a couple of weeks ago after an inconsistent start to his Jays career.
Jose Berrios hasn’t pitched at all and is lost for the year to Tommy John surgery.
Max Scherzer is on the injured list with a forearm strain but is on rehab assignment and is working his way back. They have missed his tenacity on the mound.
George Springer has only played in 40 of the first 60 games due to a couple of injuries, including a broken toe. He hasn’t quite been the spark plug he was a year ago.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be stuck in both a World Series and World Baseball Classic hangover. He has mostly been healthy until a recent hit by pitch on his right elbow, but he just isn’t hitting for power. He had eight homers at this point last season, compared to three this year.
There are reasons to explain the 29-31 record. One can make a case that the Jays are fortunate to have that record, considering all that has gone wrong so far. But it’s difficult to predict that the Jays will once again go 63-39 over the remaining 102 games of the season. It feels like winning the division is an extreme longshot. The Rays (nine games ahead) and Yankees (7.5 games ahead) would both have to collapse, while the Jays would need to get extremely hot.
The American League as a whole has underperformed so far. If the season ended today, the Jays would still qualify for October baseball as the third wild-card team. But Toronto doesn’t just want to get to the playoffs, they want another bite at the apple in the World Series. They will need to play much better than they have to do that. But as I laid out above, there are reasons to believe that things can’t get better as they get healthier and Guerrero and Springer get themselves going.
Guererro must be better. We have enough of a sample size to indicate that he’s much better than he has performed so far this year. I believe players in the prime of their career will tend to ride the ebbs and flows in a season, then get to the numbers on the back of their baseball card. That would indicate that Guerrero has a scorching streak coming soon.
Atkins has impressed
I have been impressed by Jays general manager Ross Atkins so far this season. He has been making small deals here and there, trying to plug the leaks in the dam as they appear.
He signed veteran lefty Patrick Corbin after multiple injuries to the starting rotation. Corbin has been excellent. He traded for the versatile Lenyn Sosa from the White Sox after Springer broke his toe. He added additional catching depth at Triple-A to protect the organization from a worst-case scenario of losing another backstop. He traded for reliever Connor Seabold from the Tigers to add to the depth and impact in the bullpen. He has been able to add players from Buffalo who have been productive and capable. Plus, Spencer Miles, a Rule 5 draft pick from the San Francisco Giants, has been a very pleasant surprise.
There’s still a lot of work ahead. Atkins is going to have to further fortify the bullpen. The decision to remove Jeff Hoffman in the closer’s role could have been made sooner, but at least Louis Varland is showing he is a more than adequate option presently. Hoffman continues to have blowups, and the next decision may be about moving him off the team completely.
What Atkins needs the most is for his roster to get healthy, so he has a clear idea of where they are at the trade deadline.
Spitting Seeds
Toronto’s terrible injury luck took an absurd turn on Sunday afternoon when outfielder Jesus Sanchez was struck on his right wrist by a ball thrown from the stands during a mound visit.
It seems there was no ill-intent behind the ball being thrown towards the field. It was tossed by a young fan who thought Sanchez wanted to play catch. There are times when outfielders will throw the ball back and forth between innings with youngsters in the stands, but it’s not something that’s normally done during mound visits.
The fan misunderstood and hit Sanchez so hard that he had to leave the game. He is listed as day-to-day and it appears a major injury has been avoided.
