There is less than one week before MLB’s trade deadline, and the Toronto Blue Jays are reaching a critical juncture.
The Jays (49-58) sit five games back of the final wild-card spot in the American League with five teams between them and the Cleveland Guardians, who currently occupy the final spot. At nine games under .500 through 107 games, FanGraphs projections give the Jays an 8.0 per cent chance to make the playoffs.
Offence has remained a consistent problem for the Jays this season, as the team has scored the fewest runs in the AL while also carrying the sixth-worst run differential in all of Major League Baseball.
With limited time to turn their season around, ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Blue Jays appear to be sellers ahead of the trade deadline and have begun entertaining conversations for some of their roster players.
“Yeah, that’s what I’m hearing from other teams, that they’re entertaining conversations.” Olney said on TSN radio. “Teams have crawled out of the hole that the Blue Jays are in now, but I don’t expect that to happen given how they played.”
The main trade chips for the Blue Jays are believed to be starter Kevin Gausman, all-star reliever Louis Varland, and veteran outfielder/DH George Springer. However, Olney adds that the market for the Jays could be held up as teams wait to see whether starter Tarik Skubal and closer Mason Miller will be made available by the Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres, respectively.
“Gausman is the best example of what we’re talking about, being affected by Skubal because he is respected and he’s valued,” said Olney. “He’s a guy who’s changed teams in midseason, so that wouldn’t be in question. He’s pitched in the World Series. He checks a lot of boxes.”
Gausman, 35, is in the final season of the five-year, $110 million contract he signed with Toronto in 2022 that carries a $23 million salary this season. Olney suspects that the return the Blue Jays could get for the veteran starter would depend on how much of Gausman’s salary the Blue Jays are willing to retain. He has a 4.51 ERA this season with a 1.27 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts over 22 starts.
Gausman earned Cy Young votes in his first two seasons with the team - finishing third in voting in the 2023 season when he also was named an all-star. Olney names the Cubs, Braves, and Phillies as potential landing spots.
Varland, 28, has been one of the best relievers in baseball this season, as he holds a 1.02 ERA and 22 saves over 48 appearances. With Varland under team control through 2030, he would fetch a significant return should the Jays choose to trade him.
“There’s no question that they would do well in terms of a prospect return,” Olney said of Varland. “Every contending team is looking for a reliever, and Varland would check every box for any contender. So it would be a great seller’s market. And I do think if they legitimately dangled him out there, that he probably would be the most coveted reliever available if Mason Miller was not made available.”
Springer, 36, is also in the final year of his contract and while he has struggled at the plate this season, Olney says he could also be an interesting trade target to contending teams due to his clubhouse presence.
“He’s got the pedigree in October, but he’s known as being a really great clubhouse guy,” said Olney. “If you are a team like the Braves could use a right-handed hitter, somebody who could potentially fill in at DH, there’s a lot to like.”
Moving pending free agents like Gausman and Springer would fit with the upcoming trade landscape, as Olney says teams are wary of adding too much future salary due to the uncertain future of MLB’s economic landscape.
“Whether you’re a big-market team, you’re a small-market team, you don’t know what the economic system is going to be,” said Olney. “It’s not on the front burner, but it’s in the back of everyone’s minds.
“You’re going to see teams looking to dump some money because they want to clean their books up before we go into 2027. That’s exactly what’s happening. There’s nobody buying bad debt right now.”
