The Toronto Blue Jays are suddenly in the thick of the American League playoff race.
Despite still sitting last in the AL East with a 61-65 record, the Jays are just one game behind the Baltimore Orioles for the third and final wild-card spot after winning 13 or their last 20 games, including an impressive 5-2 home stand last week against the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
The biggest hurdle the Blue Jays will face in the final 36 games of the season is the amount of teams they’ll have to outplay in order to qualify for the playoffs.
After the O’s, the Texas Rangers are just a half game back, followed by the Detroit Tigers (one game back), Minnesota Twins (1.5 games back), Cleveland Guardians (1.5 games back) and Seattle Mariners (2.5 games back).
If any of these teams get on a hot streak similar to the incredible 15-game run or eight-game streak the Red Sox accomplished earlier this summer, it could be the difference in playing October baseball.
Following 17 straight days of baseball, Toronto has an off-day on Monday before beginning a stretch of six games that won’t make, but could very well break their playoff hopes if things go badly.
The Blue Jays will battle the American League leading Tampa Bay Rays (74-49) for a three-game set at Tropicana Field, a place that has become a House of Horrors for the Jays in the past, before travelling to the Bronx for a weekend set against the Yankees (69-55).
They’ll have to do it without Vladimir Guerrero Jr., however, as the struggling All-Star is currently on the 7-day concussion injured list and isn’t expected to play this week.
Toronto has really struggled against Tampa this season, holding an 2-8 record, including suffering a three-game sweep at The Trop in early May. They own an all-time record of 92-147 at Tropicana Field, a winning percentage of just .385.
The Blue Jays have had better luck at Yankee Stadium, splitting a four-game set in New York in May. The Jays and Yankees have split their 10 games against each other so far this season.
If the Blue Jays can avoid falling out of the wild-card race by the end of this six-game stretch, their schedule the rest of the way is very favourable.
Following Tampa Bay and New York, Toronto does not play a team currently above the .500 mark over the final 30 games of the season and have series against Seattle, Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit and Texas, all teams vying for the last playoff spot.
Blue Jays’ Remaining Schedule
| Date | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 18-20 | @ Tampa Bay Rays | 74-49 |
| Aug. 21-23 | @ New York Yankees | 69-55 |
| Aug. 25-27 | Kansas City Royals | 51-74 |
| Aug. 28-30 | Seattle Mariners | 59-66 |
| Sept. 1-3 | @ Cleveland Guardians | 60-65 |
| Sept. 4-6 | @ Kansas City Royals | 51-74 |
| Sept. 7-9 | @ Athletics | 49-75 |
| Sept. 11-13 | Baltimore Orioles | 61-63 |
| Sept. 14-16 | Detroit Tigers | 60-64 |
| Sept. 18-20 | @Texas Rangers | 61-64 |
| Sept. 21-23 | @Baltimore Orioles | 61-63 |
| Sept. 25-27 | Cincinnati Reds | 59-64 |
BOLD = Wild Card Contender
The Blue Jays have the third easiest schedule the rest of the way, with a .480 Strength of Schedule percentage. The M’s and Guardians have an even easier schedule on paper.
Strength of Schedule - Wild Card Contenders
| Team | Strength of Schedule |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | .452 |
| Seattle Mariners | .471 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | .480 |
| Minnesota Twins | .487 |
| Detroit Tigers | .492 |
| Texas Rangers | .499 |
| Baltimore Orioles | .509 |
The key to Toronto’s recent turnaround has been their pitching - both by their starters and relievers.
The Jays have been one of the best pitching teams in baseball during the month of August, producing a league-leading 2.87 earned-run average.
However, the offence continues to struggle considerably.
In August, the Blue Jays’ .633 OPS in third-worst in the MLB. They’ve only hit nine home runs this month, one better than the Los Angeles Angels for worst in the Majors.
This is nothing new for the defending American League champions as the Blue Jays have struggled to produce runs all season long.
Blue Jays’ Struggling Offence
| Stat | Blue Jays | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs | 492 | 29th |
| Batting Average | .242 | 18th |
| Home Runs | 116 | 29th |
| OPS | .678 | 30th (Last in MLB) |
Asking the Jays’ pitching staff, which currently includes just four healthy starters with Trey Yesavage’s return in doubt, to keep their current pace for the remainder of the regular season is asking a lot.
The offence will likely need to start producing more runs if the Blue Jays are going to outlast the rest of the pack and qualify for the playoffs in the mediocre American League.
