And then there were two left standing.
We have chalk, as they say, in the World Series. The best team in the National League and the best team in American are still alive.
The Milwaukee Brewers ran away with the NL Central with an NL-best 103 wins and finished 14 games ahead of the second-place Chicago Cubs. The Tampa Bay Rays won 98 games – finishing four and a half games ahead of the New York Yankees – to win the AL East.
This will be a historic World Series, regardless of the outcome. The Rays and Brewers are two of the five teams that have never won a World Series (San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners and Colorado Rockies are the others). This is the Rays’ third trip to the Fall Classic (joining 2008 and 2020) since their inception in 1998. This is only the second time in the Brewers’ franchise history that they are in the World Series – the last time was 44 years ago in 1982. They weren’t even in the National League then.
This is such an interesting matchup for a multitude of reasons. These are two teams who pride themselves on doing the little things right. Neither team has significant home run power as the Rays were ranked 22nd and the Brewers 29th (only the Toronto Blue Jays had fewer homers). They were tied with the best batting average (.258) and in the top five in on-base percentage. Both teams were ranked in the top five in stolen bases. The Brewers were the top baserunning team when it came to taking extra-bases. The Rays were ranked seventh.
Defensively, the Rays were the second-best defensive team (87 DRS) to the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers were the fourth-best team in the field (62 DRS).
When it comes to pitching, the Brewers had the second best (3.51) ERA to the Yankees. The Rays were ranked seventh overall (3.70 ERA). The Brewers bullpen is elite as they were ranked third in ERA (3.40) and second in saves (55), while the Rays paced all of baseball with 58 saves led by closer Bryan Baker who saved 41 games in 44 opportunities in the regular season and has saved all five of his postseason opportunities. He has only allowed one hit and no runs in his seven October innings.
These are two excellent teams that are mostly mirror images of one another. They pitch, they defend and they manufacture runs. Whoever wins this series will beat the other team, because these clubs don’t beat themselves.
But the most interesting thing about this series, however, isn’t what will happen on the field. It is that THESE are the two teams in THIS World Series.
The owners and the players are headed for a showdown this winter in the negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. There will likely be a lockout on Dec. 1 and the game will be shut down until the two sides reach an agreement. There will be no communication from front offices, managers, coaches, or trainers to the players. There will be no negotiations with free agents during the lockout. There will be no winter meetings despite the fact that WINTER IS COMING to baseball.
The owners have proposed a salary cap to the players, surely to contain costs, but also to create a sense of competitive balance. The commissioner has said that in surveys with fans, one of their main complaints is that the payroll disparity in the game makes it nearly impossible for small market franchises to compete. The owners’ proposal calls for a salary cap and a floor and serious revenue sharing allowing the smaller markets to have more money to spend on players.
It all sounds reasonable. But is there truly competitive imbalance? There is definitely a spending imbalance.
Our World Series matchup includes two of the smaller markets in the game: the Brewers have the 19th ranked payroll ($146 million) while the Rays are ranked 28th ($95.6 million). This year’s collection of playoff teams also included other small market clubs like Cleveland who had the lowest payroll ($74.5 million) and the Chicago White Sox who ranked 24th ($103.3 million).
Sure, the large market teams were also represented as the Dodgers (2nd), Yankees (3rd), Phillies (4th), Braves (6th), Cubs (7th), Astros (8th), Padres (9th) and Red Sox (10th) all reached the postseason.
But I’m sure the owners are cringing at the fact that two small market teams are in the Fall Classic. The timing of the Brewers and Rays is awful for them.
It contradicts the talking point that there is competitive imbalance. Of course, the argument now will be that low payroll teams can make a quick run at a championship, but they can’t sustain success, because they have to trade their great players after a couple of years when they get priced out of the small market.
The bigger challenge with the competitive balance argument, especially in negotiations, is that the players don’t care about it. The competitive balance priority for the owners is a complete nonfactor to the Players’ Association. Players in Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Miami and Cleveland don’t care about competitive balance. They just want to get paid. They don’t want a new system to level the playing field, especially if they perceive that it could limit their paydays. I can’t blame them for that.
I always believed the challenge for the owners would be getting alignment from the large market owners on a salary cap because it would demand significant revenue sharing.
Large market owners must grouse at the notion of having to subsidize the smaller markets to give those teams a chance to be more competitive. I mean, when large market owners paid a premium for their teams, they did so, expecting to have access to all of the revenue potential that came with it.
When small market owners paid millions, if not, billions less, for their teams, they knew what their revenue potential was too. It would chap me if I was an owner in a big market and I had to give handouts to the small market owners. It’s robbing from the rich, to give to the poor in a way.
But the owners have made several different CBA proposals, all of which are tied to a salary cap. This means they have their ducks in a row and they must have all the owners or the necessary number of owners on board with the plan.
I don’t think anything in this playoff season has – or will – change the negotiating positions of either side. Nor, do I think it will change what the fans feel. The fans want competitive balance, but at what price. Is anyone willing to risk losing 30 games? 60 games? A season?
World Series predictions
Okay, enough doom and gloom. We have the World Series to watch and enjoy.
I think this series will go seven games and the Brewers will ultimately prevail. My pick for the World Series MVP is Brewers catcher William Contreras. He has led Milwaukee throughout the playoffs with a .367/.457/.700 slash line. He has three home runs and driven in five runs and scored five. He is a big personality and seems to thrive on the pressure.
Winner: Brewers in seven
MVP: William Contreras
Canadian Smith shines for Guardians
I would like to give an honourable mention for the Cleveland Guardians. The drought continues for the Cleveland franchise. They have now gone 78 years without a World Series title. It is currently the longest drought in baseball.
One thing that is certain; you can’t blame their Canadian closer Cade Smith for their failures. The Abbotsford, B.C. native appeared in nine of their 11 playoff games, logging 8.2 innings giving up only two runs. He was two for two in save opportunities.
He has developed into one of the five best relievers in baseball. He has far exceeded any expectation that baseball people had when he was drafted in the 16th round in 2017 out of Mennonite Educational Institute in Abbotsford by the Twins.
He didn’t sign then and chose to go to the University of Hawaii at Manoa. In 2020, he signed as an undrafted free agent with the Guardians for just $20,000. It was the COVID-19 year when the draft was limited to just five rounds. He wanted to play and Cleveland gave him a chance. It worked out well for him and the club, for sure.
Smith is a warrior and he could pitch for my team any day of the week.