What is wrong with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
It feels like I’ve written a column on this topic more than a handful of times over the past seven years. I blame Guerrero for it because he has performed at such a high level for periods of time, like during the playoffs in 2026, that he has taught us to expect greatness from him.
But we don’t always get greatness. Sometimes we just get good Vladdy. He is getting paid by the Blue Jays to be the great version Vladdy. He is a $500-million man. He’s being paid to be an elite performer.
In the past, I defended Guerrero because he was still quite young. I thought with time and experience he would become more consistent and increase the height of his peaks and reduce the depth of his valleys. At least I thought he could shorten the length of his valleys.
I’ve written about Guerrero’s launch angle as being the cause for his lack of extra-base hits and slugging percentage. He has ranged from 4.3 degrees to 10.5 degrees across his seven-plus seasons. Many of his homers are line drives that go over the wall.
But we have seen the big-time power. I mean, he hit 48 homers in 2021. Sure, the Jays played in Dunedin (11 HR in 21 games) and Buffalo (10 HR in 23 games) before getting to Toronto (10 HR in 35 games) due to the pandemic. But the home runs were real.
Guerrero won the Home Run Derby in 2023 in Seattle with an average launch angle of 27 degrees, so he can certainly adjust his swing in a significant way when he tries. Guerrero’s average launch angle is 9.0 degrees this season. It was 9.4 degrees when he hit the 48 homers in 2021. The average MLB launch angle this season is 12.5 degrees.
But launch angle is only part of the issue for Guerrero. He is hitting .287/.378/.374 with only three home runs and is on pace for seven homers in 157 games. That’s right. He’s on pace to finish a full season with seven home runs.
I have watched plenty of Guerrero’s at-bats this season and I keep seeing the same thing: he’s drifting.
He is not keeping his weight back as he strides toward the pitcher when the ball is being delivered to the plate. His centre of gravity moves forward, making it difficult to hit against his front leg, which helps Guerrero transfer energy into the baseball. When he drifts forward, he also loses a significant amount of his power because he can’t generate the same amount of force and get his legs into his swing with a full, powerful rotation of his hips.
There are a couple of causes for his drifting. When Guerrero is in contact mode and not power mode he drifts forward because he is looking to put the ball in play and not swing and miss. I’ve also noticed throughout his career that Guerrero gets into this habit when he isn’t feeling confident at the plate. When that’s the case, he can still hit the ball hard, but he can only hit it hard on the ground.
Another reason for drifting is timing. Guerrero has a toe tap in his preparation for his swing. At some point in the pitcher’s delivery, Guerrero steps back with his front foot and then strides forward. This is where the drifting happens. When he starts his toe tap too late as the pitch is coming to the plate, he then has to rush to get his front foot down and doesn’t have time to hit the bottom of the baseball. As he rushes to get the front foot down, his centre of gravity moves forward and creates an angle that makes generating a home run-capable launch angle nearly impossible.
In the playoffs last year Guerrero was confident and he took serious, aggressive power swings. He was locked in. He was on time with his front foot getting down and he drove the baseball.
Hitting isn’t about trying harder
I’m sure that by now everyone has taken their shot at helping Guerrero; the hitting coaches, manager John Schneider, George Springer and other teammates, his father, GM Ross Atkins, the analytics department, columnists, baseball analysts, the guy at the deli, the bellman at the hotel, etc.
Sometimes the help becomes too much. Too many voices can compound the issues, making hitting more complicated than it already is. The more people try to help, the more a hitter thinks he needs help. It makes a hitter feel lost.
Hitting isn’t about trying harder. That’s why hitters often break out of slumps after taking a couple of days off to clear their head and stop obsessing about their failures. Hitting is about concentration and execution. It’s about having a plan. Hitters need to relax. They need to be intense but not tense. When a hitter struggles no one is harder on them than they are on themselves.
As a general manager, when I addressed a struggling star I would just ask if he was alright. Then I would tell him that I had no doubt that he would get hot again and that it was just around the corner. I would then ask if we could do anything for him; anything to help him. Then I would say, “Tonight is the night!”
I would also be challenging the coaching staff on what we can be doing to help the star break out of it. We would discuss the technical and mechanical issues but also the hitter’s plan at the plate and then the mental approach. Then we would discuss strategic adjustments that can be made, such as more batting practice or less, moving their spot in the lineup, days off, etc.
I think Guerrero should be instructed to only try to hit home runs in batting practice. He needs to remind his motor memory about how it feels to get his front foot down and deliver launch angle in his swing.
At some point this season Guerrero will get hot again. He’s not going to finish the year with seven home runs.
If fans want to help, cheer for him. Cheer his hits and outs. Cheer him with the anticipation of a great moment and he will start to deliver them. You have no idea what celebrating the players does for their souls.
Guerrero getting hot again will be the reason the Jays make the playoffs this year.
