TORONTO — With less than a month to go until the Aug. 1 trade deadline, the needs of the Toronto Blue Jays are starting to become clear.
Other than a surprising Alek Manoah-sized hole in the starting rotation, it’s been an amazingly healthy first half for the Jays, and the current needs aren’t all that different from what we expected way back in March.
In fact, they might be exactly the same, depending how GM Ross Atkins decides to attack the rotation with Manoah and a rehabbing Hyun Jin Ryu both expected to contribute in some fashion in the second half.
While we know the areas of need, we don’t know how they’ll be prioritized – especially with a middling farm system to peddle from.
In general, pitching depth and a bat or two are on the shopping list, but there are many different levels to the types of players available, as well as the prospect price points it will take to pry them away.
It’s hard to predict how splashy Atkins and his front office will be able to get without totally emptying out the prospect pool
As always, the other wrinkle this early is that other than a handful of obvious clubs — the Oakland A’s, the Kansas City Royals, the Washington Nationals, the Colorado Rockies, the Detroit Tigers and both sides of Chicago, north and south, are all sellers — we also don’t know which teams in the murky middle will end up deciding to add unexpected names to the trade market later this month.
Those are the rosters that usually produce the most surprise trades, and they usually have more interesting talent than the cellar dwellers, too.
There’s a month to figure that out, but in the meantime here’s an early look at the Jays’ needs and names that could fit the bill.
ROTATION HELP
RHP Lucas Giolito, CWS
RHP Lance Lynn, CWS
LHP Jordan Montgomery, STL
RHP Jack Flaherty, STL
RHP Seth Lugo, SD
RHP Michael Wacha, SD
LHP Drew Smyly, CHC
RHP Kyle Hendricks, CHC
RHP Paul Blackburn, OAK
RHP Carlos Carrasco, NYM
RHP Michael Lorenzen, DET
LHP Rich Hill, PIT
RHP Trevor Williams, WSH
LHP Steven Matz, STL
Atkins specifically mentioned the rotation as a need during an availability in the last week of June, but with Manoah and Ryu both expected to be given opportunities, that would give the club six veteran starters already.
There’s zero certainty with either, but the names currently on the market either don’t represent much of an upgrade, or in the case of Giolito, Montgomery and Flaherty, they may simply cost too much for a rental as pending free agents.
Relic Rich Hill, who could be used in a swingman role and would give them another look lefty in the ‘pen when he’s not starting, might be a cheap depth solution.
The most interesting fit here may be Seth Lugo because of his experience in a swingman role, but the Padres may not be ready to sell just yet.
BULLPEN ARMS
RHP David Bednar, PIT
RHP Jordan Hicks, STL
RHP Giovanny Gallegos, STL
RHP Scott Barlow, KC
RHP Kyle Finnegan, WSH
RHP Hunter Harvey, WSH
RHP Alex Lange, DET
RHP Jason Foley, DET
RHP Jose Cisnero, DET
RHP Kendall Graveman, CHW
RHP Keynan Middleton, CHW
RHP Joe Kelly, CHW
LHP Aaron Bummer, CHW
RHP Trevor May, OAK
RHP Pierce Johnson, COL
RHP Daniel Bard, COL
Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, and Tim Mayza have been a terrific trio at the back end of John Schneider’s bullpen, making a combined 115 appearances so far in the first half of the season.
Behind them, Trevor Richards, Yimi Garcia, and Nate Pearson provide solid depth and a bit of upside, but if this is expected to be a World Series-type bullpen there’s definitely room for one more late-inning arm.
The group of right-handers above come at different price points and provide different levels of impact, depending on how Atkins weighs this area against other needs.
Adding Hicks and Bummer, a groundball machine from the left side, would give the Jays one of the better ‘pens in baseball.
RIGHT-HANDED POWER
OF Tyler O’Neill, STL
OF Dylan Carlson, STL
OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT
OF/1B Connor Joe, PIT
OF Tommy Pham, NYM
OF Mark Canha, NYM
OF/1B Brent Rooker, OAK
OF Ramon Laureano, OAK
3B/1B Jeimer Candelario, WSH
OF Randall Grichuk, COL
Let’s first go over why some right-handed pop should be on the shopping list and where that bat could possibly fit with a lineup chock full of everyday veterans.
Starting outfielders Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier have OPS of .579 and .690, respectively, against lefties. Designated hitter Brandon Belt holds a .417 OPS against southpaws. Utilityman Cavan Biggio’s OPS against lefties is .343.
As a group, those four players have hit exactly zero(!) home runs against left-handed pitching this season in 143 plate appearances.
The most obvious spots for a right-handed hitter are left field and second base, which allows Whit Merrifield and his career .801 OPS against lefties to shift into left.
Pham is the best fit on this list profile-wise and he was also red-hot in June, while Grichuk is an old friend who wouldn’t exactly excite anyone.
Rooker and Laureano are on the A’s, so you know they’re available, while Candelario is a switch-hitter who’s never played anything other than third base and first, but the bat would help.
O’Neill would bring big time pop and a Canadian passport to town, but McCutchen’s resurgent bat and leadership would be a coup for Atkins.
SURPRISE SPLASHES
2B Tim Anderson, CHW
2B/OF Tommy Edman, STL
2B Ha-Seong Kim, SD
OF Eloy Jimenez, CHW
OF Cody Bellinger, CHC
RHP Max Scherzer, NYM
RHP Justin Verlander, NYM
If you’re looking for an area the Jays could make a seamless splash and add an everyday bat of significance, it’s probably second base.
An addition at any other position means subtraction at the same time, or it’s a platoon bat.
Tim Anderson, an exciting player with a $14 million club option for 2024 and a career .859 OPS against southpaws, would do the Marcus Semien dance and shift to second base, potentially giving the Jays a dynamic and athletic middle infield for the second half and beyond.
Same thing with Tommy Edman, who crushes lefties with a career .829 OPS, but he’s also a switch-hitter who’s just hitting arbitration this winter so the Cardinals would be asking for a lot despite his down year.
Kim is having his best MLB season in his age-27 year. Similar to Anderson and Edman, he’d be a big time upgrade with the glove at the keystone and has a good track record against lefties.
Jimenez is a power bat without much defensive utility, but his right-handed power and contract would cost a lot to pry away from the White Sox.
The Jays had interest in Bellinger this past winter and he actually hits same-side pitching pretty well for a lefty. He would be surprising simply because it’s a redundant fit with the Varsho/Kiermaier/Belt group.
The two future Hall of Fame pitchers have lots of money remaining on their deals, but not much term so there’s no reason to think the Jays wouldn’t check in if Steve Cohen decides to sell off his big pitching investments in frustration.