I honestly can’t remember a regular-season game in early July as fascinating as Friday’s matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays. It will forever be known as “The Return of Alek Manoah.”
The Blue Jays’ fallen ace returns to the rotation to face the lowly Tigers offence, looking to prove that he has been rehabilitated from his early-season struggles. And struggle he did.
Prior to the demotion, Manoah had a 1-6 record with a 6.36 ERA. He had allowed 110 baserunners in just 58 innings pitched. It wasn’t just bad; it was really bad. Certainly, it was a significant and unprecedented collapse from one of the three finalists for the American League Cy Young Award last year.
In his last start before being sent to the lowest level of the minors he lasted one-third of an inning and gave up seven hits and six runs. He had hit rock bottom, or so we thought.
The Jays sent him to the Complex League team in Dunedin, Fla. This is where many players start their journey to the major leagues. It’s where the youngest and most inexperienced players are being developed. In his first start there, the big right-hander got rocked. He lasted only 2.2 innings and gave up 11 runs on 10 hits. I didn’t think he could hit a lower rock bottom than when he was demoted, but he did.
Give Manoah credit; he is a competitor. He didn’t lay down and give up. He fought back and rebounded in his next start at Double-A. He threw five innings and allowed only one run while allowing three hits and three walks and struck out 10 batters. It was a significant step forward, but in my opinion not enough of a step to warrant a recall to the major-league team.
One good start after a season full of bad starts does not indicate that a pitcher has been fixed. Manoah needed to improve his physical conditioning, mechanics, emotional control, and mental approach. All of those areas were compromised during his struggles.
My experience has been that rebuilding a player often means that he has to reinstate his muscle and mental memory of good actions and thinking. I don’t know how anyone can trust that Manoah is put back together. One positive start does not indicate a trend. It’s too small a sample size to tell us anything other than he had a good day.
General manager Ross Atkins said that Manoah was put in a pitching lab where his mechanics were dissected on super slow-motion video to identify that cause of his issues. Atkins believes that Manoah’s adjustments made before his start at New Hampshire, the Jays Double-A affiliate, were a result of this dissection. He believes Manoah has made the necessary adjustments to return to the majors.
I have no doubt that the righty made adjustments that worked in his start in New Hampshire. But instead of recalling Manoah for the start on Friday, I would have had him pitch in the minor leagues again, hoping to further reinforce and cement the adjustments he’s making in his mind and body. Then I would have had him pitch in a minor leagues game next Wednesday. That would have given him potentially three minor-league starts to really set him up to succeed when he returns.
The key to rebuilding a struggling pitcher is to set him up to succeed immediately, allowing him to settle in and regain confidence. The more positive outings he can throw in the minor leagues, the better he can feel upon his return.
The true test won’t be whether Manoah rattles off six quality innings. It will be when he struggles, and he will struggle again at some point. Does he trust the adjustments he has made, or does he abandon them and backslide? Will he revert back to trying to manufacture velocity and change his mechanics? Will he try to miss bats if he gets hit around, or will he trust himself to keep throwing strikes? Time will tell.
To be fair, the Jays have logic for what they are doing. Manoah threw very well in his start at Double-A. He was mechanically sound for the most part, and had decent location with his fastball and depth and bite on his slider. Those are two critical areas of improvement. His velocity was 92-95 mph and back in the range where he had success last season.
Another important factor is the fact that the Friday start is against the Detroit Tigers (38-48) who have the 28th-ranked offence in baseball. In the front office’s mind, it’s a soft matchup for him. Manoah’s recall pushes Kevin Gausman back a day in the rotation, giving the emerging ace an extra day of rest. Plus, slotting Gausman behind Manoah makes sense because if he struggles and the bullpen gets spent on Friday, a rested Gausman can eat up innings on Saturday.
The other important factor that the Jays must be considering is that they need to find out quickly whether or not Manoah can return to his elite-level performance. The answer will determine how significant a starting pitcher the team will try to acquire at the trade deadline.
I suggest everyone cross their fingers and hope for the best. I honestly don’t know what to expect.
Musings on the Midsummer Classic
The All-Star Game rosters have been set. As always, there were some surprises and some obvious snubs. The good news is that most of the snubs end up getting All-Star recognition because they get to replace the selections who are injured.
The Jays have four All Stars: Bo Bichette, Whit Merrifield, Vladimir Guerrero and Kevin Gausman.
Guerrero isn’t having his best season, and some may wonder whether he should actually be an All-Star. Although it may be a bit of a down year for Vlad, compared to the other first basemen in the AL, he is the proper choice. Plus, fans go to the All-Star Game to see the stars like Guerrero, not Josh Naylor of the Guardians or Nathaniel Lowe of the Rangers. The players voted Guerrero into the game because they see him as a threat, even when he isn’t at his best.
I can’t wait for the Home Run Derby. It is one of my favourite sporting events of the year. This year’s edition will be very entertaining, with an interesting cast of competitors. I’m predicting Guerrero wins it this year. The experience he gained in 2019 will pay dividends.
There has always been speculation that participation in the derby can hurt players in the second half of the season. I actually believe it will help Guerrero.
Hunting the bottom of the baseball and looking to lift it out of the ballpark while taking 120 swings or so in the derby should imprint that into Guerrero’s motor memory. He’s currently on pace for 25 home runs, but I think he will hit more than 30 this season. Look for a big second half from the Jays, led by Guerrero.
