DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (AP) — The NASCAR Cup Series standings have been reset. Denny Hamlin, the regular-season champion, had his sizable advantage slashed to 25 points over Ryan Blaney as the series shifts into playoff mode.
The Chase for the championship begins at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina on Sunday, with the top 16 drivers embarking on a 10-race stretch that will determine who hoists the Bill France Cup at Homestead-Miami Speedway in mid-November.
NASCAR tweaked its championship in January, eliminating knockouts after every third postseason race in favor of the original format established in 2004: a 10-race cumulative points battle that should create more possibilities heading into the finale.
Drivers are seeded 1 through 16, and much like other sports, what’s often more telling is who is peaking at the right time. So here’s a look at the drivers — contenders and pretenders — and their chances heading into Darlington:
Frontrunners and favorites
1 seed. Hamlin: The Joe Gibbs Racing star led a series-high 880 laps and won four times in the No. 11 Toyota, including consecutive events at Nashville Superspeedway, Michigan International Speedway and Pocono Raceway during a dominant summer stretch.
He clinched the regular-season title at New Hampshire on Aug. 23. He is now only the betting favorite (plus-100), but he’s also the sentimental favorite after a rollercoaster year in he fell just short of his first Cup title and then dealt with the death of his father, who was killed in a December house fire.
“You’re going to have to find that little bit of extra notch that is required at this point in the year,” said Hamlin, 45, the oldest driver in the series. “With the reset, it’s even more important, but you got to be better.”
2. Blaney: The Team Penske star has at least three wins in four consecutive years for Team Penske. He drove the No. 12 Ford to the title in 2023 and finished as runner-up twice since.
3. Tyler Reddick: The 23XI driver has a series-leading five victories, all in the first two months of the season. He cooled off some in June and July in the No. 45 Toyota but has back-to-back top-10 finishes to regain momentum.
7. Kyle Larson: No one with a 50-race winless streak should be considered a favorite. But Larson is the defending series champ, arguably the best driver in the field and races for the team (Hendrick Motorsports) with more wins and titles than anyone.
9. Joey Logano: The three-time series champ (2018, ’22, ’24) ranked as low as 20th at the end of June, but he won twice (North Wilkesboro and Richmond) since and said, “Don’t let the boys get hot.” He also seems to flourish in even-numbered years.
Better than a puncher’s chance
4. Ty Gibbs: He has two wins and 16 top-10s in his fourth season driving for his grandfather, Hall of Fame football coach Joe Gibbs. Five DNFs could be cause for concern in a playoff that rewards consistency.
5. Chase Briscoe: He finished third last season and ranks fifth this year. One win and driving for Toyota, which has won 12 of 26 races so far, lands him here.
6. Christopher Bell: No one in the Cup Series has endured tougher luck than Bell, who has seven runner-up finishes at JGR. Maybe he’s due?
8. Chase Elliott: Two wins for powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports makes the 2020 champion a threat.
13. William Byron: After advancing to the championship finale three consecutive years (2023-25), Byron surprisingly slipped in 2026. He hasn’t won in nearly a year, but he’s capable of getting on a roll.
14. Bubba Wallace: The last of six Toyota drivers to make the 16-man field, Wallace has equipment similar to the guys who occupy five of the top six seeds. Maybe team owner Michael Jordan can help make the magic happen.
Guys already considered on the proverbial bubble
10. Chris Buescher: A dead-last finish at Daytona on Saturday was Buescher’s sixth consecutive race outside the top 10.
11. Daniel Suarez: Tying his best finish (second) in 19 starts at Daytona should give him hope. Three career wins in 349 Cup starts make him a long shot.
“I would be lying if I told you that right now we’re championship favorites,” Suarez said. “We’re not, but we are working towards that.”
12. Carson Hocevar: The 23-year-old driver from Michigan is being touted as NASCAR’s newest villain. That usually means he has more enemies than friends on the track. His last four races: 31st, 37th, 19th and 38th.
15. Austin Cindric: He has three straight top-12 finishes, but he would need to do something unexpected to get the No. 2 Team Penske Ford into championship contention.
16. Ryan Preece: The RFK Racing driver notched his first Cup victory in 249 starts when he rode a “rocket ship to the moon” at Daytona and slipped into the playoffs. He’s the ultimate underdog in this 10-race sprint to victory lane in Homestead.
“I like pressure, man,” Preece said. “I don’t know if you guys have picked up on that yet, but I enjoy it. I’m 100% serious when I say I’m numb to it. I’m a fighter.”
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Mark Long, The Associated Press
