Welcome to the final days of October, featuring falling leaves, early sunsets, Halloween decorations illuminating the night -- and the yearly pastime of overreacting to the first week of a new NBA season.
After all, small sample size theatre has provided early gems such as:
The sky is falling in Oklahoma City, New York and Miami!
The three-guard experiment in San Antonio needs to go!
Charlotte is already better without LaMelo Ball!
With those early storylines and more in mind, let's examine 10 popular overreactions to the young 2026-27 season -- and determine which have staying power. (Note: stats through Tuesday's games.)
The Miami Heat will finish with their worst record since 2008.
Zach Kram: Not an overreaction
For reference, 2007-08 was the last time the Heat finished with fewer than 37 wins, the season that they tanked down the stretch to go 15-67 in a futile attempt to land Derrick Rose in the draft.
Merely by the law of averages, the 2026-27 Heat are bound to improve. They've had the seventh-worst shooting luck on offense, according to GeniusIQ tracking, and the second-worst shooting luck on defense. Miami is actually forcing teams into tough shots, but its opponents have been on fire regardless, making 53% of their midrange shots and 40% of their 3s, per Cleaning the Glass.
On the other hand, the Heat's offense has been stuck in the mud even accounting for that poor shooting luck, and guard Davion Mitchell is the only role player who looks comfortable playing with Giannis Antetokounmpo. There's time for that to change -- but as of Wednesday, ESPN's Basketball Power Index predicts the Heat will finish the season with just 38 wins. That's already down from 46 projected wins in the preseason, and just one ahead of this historical franchise benchmark.
Ben Golliver: Overreaction
Let's be clear: The Antetokounmpo era in South Beach is off to an atrocious start. Instead of building off its blockbuster trade for the two-time MVP with a transformative offseason, the Heat lost Norman Powell to the Chicago Bulls in free agency and settled for adding Klay Thompson, who is a shell of his former self at age 36. On the court, it's already clear that the Heat need another proven ball handler and more shooting, and Antetokounmpo needs more time to jell with Bam Adebayo.
Despite all those challenges, it's reasonable to give Heat coach Erik Spoelstra and his staff a long runway. Antetokounmpo's need to dominate the ball has clashed with the free-flowing offensive system that Miami utilized in 2025-26, and several veteran players seem to be easing into the new season. Spoelstra is a tinkerer who has conjured winning records from less talented rosters, and he'll be willing to trust his younger options if Miami's offensive struggles persist.
It's probably best to withhold judgment until after the Heat's upcoming trip out West. If the Heat can't get right against teams such as the LA Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz, sound the alarm. There is some good news: Antetokounmpo has been productive in Miami's three defeats, averaging 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists after missing most of last season due to injuries.
The Oklahoma City Thunder's title hopes are gone without Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace.
Kram: Not an overreaction
Earlier this week, I went into more depth about the impact of these two long-term injuries on Oklahoma City's title chances. The simplified version: The Thunder's winning formula over the past few seasons has been to combine MVP-level offense from Gilgeous-Alexander with the best defense in the league. The collective loss of Williams, Wallace and Luguentz Dort (via summer trade) bends that second factor out of shape.
Yes, centers Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein still form an imposing backline, and Alex Caruso (currently out with an ankle sprain) remains a singular defensive force. But the rest of Oklahoma City's perimeter rotation is now so thin, with enough defensive questions, that I would be surprised if it won another title -- barring a return from one of those injured starters before the playoffs or a significant in-season trade.
Golliver: (emotional) overreaction
Yes, it sure felt as if the sky was falling Monday when Thunder general manager Sam Presti announced that Williams and Wallace are out for the foreseeable future with significant injuries. That's no way to launch a title chase. After those injuries and the offseason trades of Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, the Thunder are down five of their top six players by minutes logged during the 2024-25 championship season. Oof.
But there's an awful lot of talent remaining around Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been sensational to start this season. Oklahoma City showed its resolve by beating Phoenix on Monday night, and it's worth noting it was only one win from reaching the Finals last year despite an injury-plagued season and postseason for Williams. Presti has picks and tradeable contracts to invest in stop-gap additions before the trade deadline, but he also has a deep roster that was built for the long haul. Count out the Thunder at your own peril.
Ty Jerome will be an All-Star.
Golliver: Overreaction
Only a jerk would root against Jerome, who looks destined for a career year after surviving countless fits and starts to get here. But the Memphis Grizzlies' schedule has been about as soft as it gets to start the season: The Jazz look poised to give up 30 points to any opposing guard, while the Warriors' injury issues and the Kings' general dysfunction disqualify them from being quality wins. Jerome is a talented scorer who more than earned this promotion to lead ball handler, but let's check back in a few weeks. The good news: LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard left the Western Conference over the summer, so there are more available All-Star spots than usual.
Kram: Not an overreaction
Jerome wasn't an All-Star last season, of course, because he played only 15 games. But he has been a star-level offensive player for a while now, even if few people recognized it until he started averaging 30 points. Here are the NBA's leaders in offensive box plus-minus for the 2025-26 campaign:
It doesn't matter when Jimmy Butler III returns -- the Golden State Warriors are cooked.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
The Warriors finally got their first win of the season Monday, but their opening week has been disheartening. With Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and several players missing time with injuries or ailments, the Warriors sat Curry on a back-to-back and rolled out a starting lineup featuring Yaxel Lendeborg, Brandon Williams, Will Richard, Gui Santos and Graham Ike on Saturday against the Phoenix Suns. That five-man group -- great fodder for Charles Barkley on "Who he play for?" -- will combine to earn less than $20 million this season.
Meanwhile, Butler ($56 million) and Porzingis ($19.5 million) are missing in action. There's no way to overcome that math.
Kram: Not an overreaction
We finally agree, Ben. I'm not especially surprised by the Warriors' predicament because this seemed like a gap year from the start, due to all their injury issues and the lack of any real upgrades over the summer. (Aside from Lendeborg, who looks incredible as a rookie.)
Maybe they can stick around the play-in race because the West looks shallower than usual -- the Jazz might also be cooked if Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. are out for a while -- but Golden State's most important goal should be setting itself up for greater success in 2027-28.
The San Antonio Spurs will kill their three-guard starting lineup by Thanksgiving.
Kram: Overreaction
I tend to think debates about starting lineups are overblown because of how much teams mix and match over the course of a game; lo and behold, the guard trio of De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle has shared the court for just 43 minutes across four games this season.
And while it's way too early to come to significant conclusions using net rating, it's not as if the Spurs have struggled in those minutes. They're plus-15.4 with that three-guard lineup, according to databallr. If San Antonio's coaching staff believes it needs to keep Fox, Harper and Castle in the starting lineup for intangible reasons, then there's no evidence yet that that's a bad idea.
Golliver: Overreaction
Spurs coach Mitch Johnson could be headed for a real saga that might take months to play out. Of course, the critical decision is whether to start Fox, Harper or both point guards. But Johnson could also buy time for that duo to work things out by swapping Devin Vassell for Tobias Harris or Julian Champagnie. Given Fox's enormous salary and Harper's potential, San Antonio must exhaust every possibility before shifting one guard to the bench.
Sacramento Kings coach Doug Christie won't make it to the new year.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
There are so many red flags coming out of Sacramento that it's starting to look like an Olympics opening ceremony. Naturally, the central tension concerns rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr. and veterans Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine. The Kings have turned Acuff loose for 93(!) shots in his first four career games with hopes he will develop into a franchise guard, but his more experienced teammates have good reason to wonder whether that's the best approach to winning.
Christie is stuck, and Ben Simmons' preseason Achilles tear made a tough job even tougher. The Kings look destined to be the NBA's worst team, and that level of ineptitude typically prompts a response from owner Vivek Ranadivé.
Kram: Not an overreaction
The Kings have let go of five coaches since Ranadivé bought the team in 2013. Two firings came at the end of a season (George Karl in 2016 and Dave Joerger in 2019), but the other three came early in a campaign: Luke Walton (2021) in November and Michael Malone (2014) and Mike Brown (2024) in December.
That pattern tells me there's greater than a 50% chance that Christie won't make it to 2027.
The New York Knicks won't get out of the first round.
Kram: Overreaction
I predicted before the season that New York would win fewer regular-season games than a year ago, so I can't profess to be surprised by their sub-.500 start against a tough schedule.
The greatest on-court problem for the Knicks is their 25th-ranked offense, but I expect a prompt turnaround: They rank last in making just 30% of their midrange shots, per Cleaning the Glass, after ranking fifth at 45% with largely the same roster a year ago.
In looking ahead to the postseason, moreover, I would have to see a much larger sample of struggles to consider the likelihood that New York won't be favored in any playoff matchup in the East. The competition will be tougher this year, but the Knicks are proven playoff performers.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
This one is more about vibes than hard analytics. As is often the case for defending champions, the Knicks have had a challenging opening week schedule filled with marquee opponents. In that context, the 1-3 start really isn't the end of the world. New York was in competitive games against aspiring contenders in the 76ers and Celtics last week and then handed the Detroit Pistons their first loss on Tuesday.
But the Knicks' inability to pull out those close games was a reminder of just how charmed their 2026 postseason was from start to finish. Jalen Brunson seemingly hit every big shot he needed to hit, and the one time Brunson didn't come through, OG Anunoby was right there for the one-in-a-million tip-in.
Time after time, the Knicks cheated death with second-half comebacks. That doesn't feel like a sustainable formula now that they've got the target on their backs. Owner James Dolan has also operated like a man who is comfortable with one ring rather than desperate to add another.
Trying to win back-to-back championships has exhausted younger teams than the Knicks in recent years, so no one should be all that surprised if they run out of gas or encounter season-altering injuries before May.
Offseason trades made the Charlotte Hornets' current roster better.
Kram: Not an overreaction (although I'm prepared for Ball to make this statement look silly)
We all thought Charlotte's surprising offseason trades were made with an eye toward the future. After all, the franchise dealt two foundational players and their two highest-salaried players in Ball and Miles Bridges. But the Hornets received so much flexibility and so many valuable draft assets in return that the "one step back, two steps forward" approach made sense.
We might have been giving the Hornets' present-day roster short shrift with that assessment. Charlotte has a winning record despite receiving zero minutes from its starting backcourt, as Coby White and Kon Knueppel deal with injuries. Brandon Miller appears to have taken a leap after signing a five-year rookie extension. And offseason additions Naz Reid and Grayson Allen, who came to Charlotte as part of the Ball and Bridges trades, have combined to average 36.3 points while making 44% of their 3-pointers. Reid, in particular, represents a meaningful upgrade over Bridges at power forward.
Golliver: Overreaction
The jury is still out on the Hornets given the injuries you mentioned and their weak quality of competition to date. With that said, the decision to trade Bridges is already shaping up to be one of those moves they will never regret.
Charlotte's short-term success will be determined by Miller's ability to consistently flex his muscles as an alpha scorer and Knueppel's comfort handling greater playmaking duties. Beyond that, Hornets ownership must demonstrate a willingness to spend to build around that budding duo.
The Ball trade could wind up as a win-win for Charlotte and Minnesota, but at some point, the Hornets will need to prioritize talent acquisition and retention rather than careful cap management. Otherwise, they're spinning their wheels.
Walker Kessler should be on Team USA in 2028.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
Before the season, the Lakers argued that Kessler was worth paying a premium price in draft picks in their summer sign-and-trade with the Jazz because it's incredibly difficult to find centers at his age (25) with the ability to finish plays on offense and credibly protect the paint on defense.
Grant Hill, Spoelstra and USA Basketball would be wise to target big men with that exact skill set for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, especially if Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and James opt not to return after winning gold in Paris. Adebayo, Holmgren, Jackson and Evan Mobley could all be in the mix, but Kessler brings a level of sheer size and physicality that those players lack. Wouldn't it be helpful to have a traditional center to deploy with Wembanyama and Jokic looming as threats to the U.S. dynasty?
Kram: Overreaction
You cited the Grizzlies' schedule when cautioning about Jerome's hot start. I'll do the same for Kessler, whose two big games to date came against a Warriors team that didn't start a center and a Clippers team with Isaiah Jackson in the middle. That's not exactly Wembanyama- and Jokic-level competition.
Kessler does have international experience, as he was a deep reserve for the unsuccessful 2023 World Cup squad. I believe he's on the long list of American big men for 2028, but I would need much more evidence to place him higher in the pecking order.
The Chicago Bulls will be the worst team in the East.
Golliver: Not an overreaction
For all the preseason talk about improved parity this season thanks to the new lottery rules, there are still some pretty bad teams. The Bulls, Bucks and Nets have all looked like viable contenders to finish with the conference's worst record. (And yet, somehow, the Heat have been harder to watch than all of them.)
The scary part about Chicago's start is how thoroughly Toronto and Boston thumped the Bulls. While the Bulls want to play fast under new coach Tiago Splitter, they're just getting completely run off the court by good teams.
There's obviously no reason to panic if the blowout losses mount: Caleb Wilson should be encouraged to play free and make mistakes, and Chicago's new front office should focus on which of its veteran players look like long-term fits around the promising rookie forward. And is it too early to predict the Bulls will be getting rid of players at the trade deadline?
Kram: Overreaction
The Bulls rank dead last in offensive efficiency, but I believe that's more a product of bad luck than bad process. According to GeniusIQ tracking, the Bulls rank fourth in quantified shot probability, which accounts for factors such as location, defender distance and shooter talent. But the Bulls have underperformed that shot quality by 11.1%, which ranks last by a mile. For context, the largest gap for any team over the full 2025-26 season was just 1.7% -- so Chicago's shotmaking is bound to improve.
That doesn't mean I think the Bulls will reach the play-in tournament or anything so lofty. But I do believe that they'll play more like a typical rebuilding team going forward, rather than losing every other game by blowout margins.