The NBA’s investigation into whether the Los Angeles Clippers and Kawhi Leonard circumvented the salary cap is stretching into its 11th month, with no resolution in sight.
On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the probe could stretch into 2027, leaving the Toronto Raptors, and their pending trade for Leonard, in limbo.
Despite the uncertainty around Leonard and any possible punishment the league might levy on the two-time NBA champion, TSN’s Josh Lewenberg says the Raptors mindset has not changed and the franchise will continue to operate under the assumption Leonard will be a member of the team on opening night.
“The Raptors demeanour and their mindset approach to all this has not changed. They are still acting as though Kawhi Leonard is a member of the Raptors. Nothing has changed from that standpoint.” Lewenberg said on TSN Radio Thursday morning. “I do think we will know whether Kawhi Leonard is a Toronto Raptor by October.”
Even if the NBA completes the investigation this summer - a stated goal of the league - Lewenberg cautions that there is no guarantee the process will be resolved by the start of the 2026-27 season as the full timeline could include appeals and arbitration.
The Raptors and Clippers agreed to the trade on June 30, one that would send Leonard to the Raptors in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, second-round picks in 2030 and 2033, and a first-round pick swap in 2027.
On July 9, the Raptors and Clippers announced separately that the trade was put on hold as the Raptors were informed they would assume the risk of any potential outcome of the investigation impacting Leonard.
As the Raptors were the party to put the trade on hold, they could choose to go ahead with the move at any time. However, Lewenberg says the team has every reason to be patient.
“It makes perfect sense for the Raptors to wait this out. The trade isn’t going anywhere,” said Lewenberg. “Let’s put it this way: If and when they are punished to some degree they would take away the Clippers draft picks, which means the Clippers would have even more need and desire for the picks that they’d be getting in this trade.
“Kawhi still wants to do it. The Raptors still want to do it. So if you’re the Raptors, why not hit pause just to make sure that whatever punishment could potentially come down isn’t more severe than what they’re comfortable with?”
Lewenberg believes that the longer the investigation drags, the more likely one or both parties will be punished.
Potential punishment for Leonard could range from suspension to the voiding of his contract. If the NBA were to give Leonard a shorter suspension, the Raptors could still sign off on the deal even if the legal process involving the Clippers extends to arbitration. However, a maximum suspension of one year, or the voiding of Leonard’s contract would make the trade tricky, or simply impossible for the Raptors.
“I do think that the longer this goes on, the more likely there will be punishments, and the more likely that the Clippers will end up being found guilty to some degree. And if they’re guilty, then Kawhi probably is too by association,” said Lewenberg, “The only thing that really jeopardizes this trade getting done is if the NBA were to void Kawhi’s contract. And I’ve always thought that that scenario is unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely.
“And then maybe we can talk about the potential suspension here. The max the NBA could suspend Kawhi is for one year. That would kind of be the same, if not similar, to voiding his contract because there’s only one year left on his contract. So a max suspension would make things really complicated, too, from the Raptors’ standpoint.”
The Raptors announced Wednesday that training camp will take place from Sept. 29 - Oct. 2 in Quebec City with a pair of Canadian preseason games against the Miami Heat in Quebec City on Oct. 3 and the Clippers in Vancouver on Oct. 10.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver said earlier this month that he still believes the investigation, conclusions, and any punishment process can be completed before the start of the season.
