TORONTO – Never a dull moment.
The Kawhi Leonard trade, which was agreed to in principle last week, still hasn’t been made official and now we know why.
After sending shockwaves around the NBA, the deal that reunited the 2019 Finals MVP with the Toronto Raptors is in limbo, on hold until the league concludes its ongoing investigation into allegations surrounding Leonard and his (maybe) former team the Los Angeles Clippers.
“The league office informed us that as a result of the ongoing investigation involving the Clippers, we would assume the risk of any potential outcome of the investigation impacting Kawhi,” the Raptors said in a team statement issued Thursday afternoon. “In light of this, we will wait until the league’s investigation is complete. The Raptors remain eager to bring Kawhi back to Toronto and look forward to a swift resolution for our players, our organization, and our fans.”
“The investigation is ongoing, and we expect the trade to be finalized following its conclusion,” the Clippers stated in their statement, while also maintaining their innocence.
Here are some frequently asked questions that could help make some sense of this unprecedented and very unusual situation.
What is the NBA investigating, again?
For the past 10 months, the league has been looking into claims that the Clippers illegally compensated Leonard outside of the league’s salary cap. It was last September when journalist Pablo Torre first drew connections between the four-year, $176.3 million maximum contract extension that Leonard signed with L.A. in 2021 and an alleged $28 million no-show marketing deal he inked with Aspiration, a now-bankrupt environmental company that Clippers owner Steve Ballmer invested in.
If it’s found that the Clippers used the endorsement deal to funnel money to Leonard, paying him more than the league’s collective bargaining agreement allows for, that would be considered salary cap circumvention. It’s an offence that’s difficult to prove, but one the NBA takes very seriously, hence the lengthy and thorough investigation. Ballmer and the Clippers have denied any wrongdoing, insisting that they had been defrauded by Aspiration, like many others were.
Why are the Raptors at risk of being penalized for something they weren’t involved in?
It’s important to note that this investigation is pertaining to the extension Leonard signed with the Clippers in 2021, a couple years after he left the Raptors.
Toronto believed that the Clippers violated the NBA’s anti-tampering rules in their recruitment of Leonard throughout the 2018-19 campaign, while he was still under contract with the Raptors. In May of 2019, L.A. was fined $50,000 for then head coach Doc Rivers’ comments, publicly comparing Leonard to Michael Jordan – a slap on the wrist for a minor infraction. The rest of Toronto’s claims were investigated by the league and dismissed. Whether the Clippers bent the rules in their recruitment and subsequent signing of Leonard in 2019, as some suspected at the time, that’s not relevant in this case.
The Raptors are not involved in this particular investigation, so why would they be assuming any risk by completing the trade? The wording of their statement is a bit misleading, in the sense that they wouldn’t be on the hook for any direct punishment stemming from the result of this investigation. The Clippers would assume the penalty, if they’re found guilty – fines, forfeited draft picks, and whatever the league decides to throw at them. Naturally, if the Raptors are acquiring Leonard – who is implicated – then they would inherit any possible penalty that he incurs, such as a suspension or, in the unlikely but worst-case scenario, voiding his contract.
By all accounts, that’s a scenario the NBA would prefer to avoid, regardless of how the investigation shakes out. For one, it would be a mess. Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick would return to the Raptors, along with the team’s draft capitol. Leonard would presumably become an unrestricted free agent, where he could theoretically sign with Toronto for the taxpayer mid-level exception, roughly $6 million or about $44 million less than he’s supposed to earn this season. Technically, if he’s willing to sign for the minimum (which isn’t much less than that), he could go anywhere: San Antonio, Miami, Oklahoma City, wherever. What would that mean for competitive balance across the league?
Mostly, though, the contract that is under investigation has long since expired. It’s hard to see any potential discipline impacting Leonard’s current deal, which was signed in 2024.
What are the Raptors missing out on in the meantime?
Fortunately, the opportunity cost of waiting this out is minimal. If and when the trade goes through, Toronto will be hard capped at the first apron, a threshold they’re already nearing with at least one more regular roster spot to fill. In other words, barring another trade, their offseason work is all but done.
Even if they didn’t make the trade, with Ingram and Dick on the books, they were already hovering around the luxury tax line and wouldn’t have been major players in free agency. It still would have been difficult to cobble together enough space to retain Sandro Mamukelashvili, who got $52 million over four years from the Lakers. Kyle Anderson, who they signed to the veteran minimum, is a former teammate of Leonard’s, but also somebody they’ve had eyes on before and fits their preferred style of play.
Would they have pulled the trigger on something else if Leonard was deemed off limits? Maybe, but probably not. They had real interest in LaMelo Bell before he was sent to Minnesota. According to league sources, their interest in Jaylen Brown and Ja Morant was low, even at deflated costs. They’re an opportunistic team that felt, and still feel, strongly this was the right opportunity.
Will the trade end up happening?
In all likelihood, yes.
Both teams appear highly motivated to complete the trade and move forward, albeit in different directions. While their reunion once seemed improbable, the Raptors are looking forward to adding the veteran superstar and proven champion to a young and feisty team that exceeded expectations a year ago. Assuming Leonard is in good health, they figure to be instant contenders in an improving Eastern Conference. The Clippers are happy to be restocking their depleted collection of draft picks, which should help them rebuild their roster around younger players. They did well in getting Toronto to (reluctantly) include a pair of unprotected first rounders in the 2030s.
Leonard, who reportedly favoured the Raptors as a landing spot when it became clear the Clippers were ready to move on, is also eager for the deal to get done. He was in Toronto this week, sitting front row at his former teammate Kyle Lowry’s retirement press conference on Tuesday, and was set to begin contract extension negotiations with his old-turned-new club.
Even if Leonard is hit with a suspension of, say, 20-25 games, the sense is that the Raptors would still sign off on the trade. It wouldn’t be ideal, but they’ve come this far, and if you’re trading for a 35-year-old Leonard, between injuries and load management, you’re probably not expecting him to play a full season anyway.
Given the uncertainty, the prudent move is to wait out the process – although it’s unclear why this holdup wouldn’t have been covered in Toronto’s due diligence before agreeing to the trade. But barring the nightmare scenario where Leonard’s contract is rendered void, the deal is expected to go through. It’s just a question of when.
How much longer is this going to take?
“We don’t have a specific timeline for the conclusion of the investigation, but expect the firm to finalize its work in the coming weeks,” an NBA spokesperson told ESPN.
The expectation is that a resolution is coming soon, especially now that the spotlight on this investigation has grown exponentially. The statements from both teams were worded carefully and their near simultaneous release was not a coincidence. The league is under a ton of pressure to get this wrapped up. If there wasn’t already a sense of urgency, there sure is now that multiple teams and multiple players are involved and have so much at stake.
It’s hard to imagine Adam Silver throwing the book at Leonard and the Clippers, but after 10 months, it’s just as difficult to envision him brushing it off and saying, “nothing to see here.” Where there’s smoke, there’s often fire and there’s been plenty of smoke around these allegations since last fall. Something is coming down at some point, but what will the fallout be and will it be enough to shake the Raptors?
For now, they’re in a holding pattern, waiting on the league’s ruling like everybody else. The ball is in the NBA’s court.
