Career progression can take many forms in the NBA: cracking the starting lineup, earning a first All-Star selection or making the leap into the MVP conversation, to name a few.
Let’s survey which players are primed for breakout campaigns by first acknowledging that “breakout” can have very different meanings depending on a player’s talent and experience.
The 30 players listed below are all primed to take the next step in 2026-27 and have been sorted into tiers based on their current credentials and the circumstances contributing to their projected improvement.
Tier 1: First MVP?
Who makes the cut: Multitime All-Stars who could conceivably break through to their first MVP in 2026-27.
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Last season, Wembanyama finished third in MVP voting and led the Spurs to the Finals during his age-22 campaign, cementing his status as the NBA’s top blue-chip prospect since LeBron James. After proving he could captain an elite defense and survive the Western Conference’s playoff gauntlet, the French center must refine his isolation scoring game and become a more dependable closer to claim the “Best in the World” throne. Given his rapid improvement during his first three seasons, those developments feel like a matter of “when,” not “if.”
Luka Doncic, Lakers
The Lakers have fully recalibrated around the 27-year-old Doncic, who is perennially one of the league’s top scorers and passers. Doncic has never finished higher than third in MVP voting, but his candidacy should benefit from a new-look supporting cast that’s tailored to his strengths and an expected spike in usage after James’ offseason departure. Doncic’s health looms as a potential drawback: His best chance to win MVP relies on the Lakers finishing with 50-plus wins, a bar they won’t clear if he misses significant time.
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
The low-key Cunningham might not generate as much buzz as some of his contemporaries, but he checks all the boxes for aspiring MVPs by putting up big numbers, driving wins and serving as the reliable face of a Finals contender. The 2021 No. 1 pick finished fifth in MVP voting last season after leading Detroit to 60 wins and the East’s No. 1 seed. If the Pistons defy their preseason doubters and finish in the conference’s top tier again, the 25-year-old Cunningham will almost certainly show up on more ballots this time around.
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
Similar to Wembanyama and Cunningham, Edwards is another former No. 1 pick on the ascent. The 25-year-old shooting guard hasn’t yet finished in the top five for MVP voting, but he has led the Timberwolves on multiple deep postseason runs and is flanked by a potent new sidekick in LaMelo Ball. Though Edwards’ advanced statistics often leave something to be desired compared to past MVP winners, he has a decent chance to win his first scoring title and arguably already leads the league in charisma.
Tyrese Maxey, 76ers
Maxey is a model of continual improvement: His scoring average increased from year to year in each of his first six seasons, and he followed his first All-Star selection in 2024 with his first All-NBA nod in 2026. Philadelphia’s lightning-quick guard has mastered his scoring craft, and he’s bound to get more national attention playing alongside James and Jaylen Brown on the souped-up 76ers. Though Dwyane Wade, Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis never generated much traction as MVP candidates while playing in James’ shadow, the star dynamic is different in Philadelphia given that Maxey is 25 and James is 41.
Tier 2: All-Star to superstar?
Who makes the cut: Players with at least one All-Star selection who could vault into the top-15 conversation by season’s end.
Scottie Barnes, Raptors
To date, the 25-year-old Barnes hasn’t really functioned as a prototypical alpha scorer or proven to be a knockdown perimeter shooter. That’s OK because the Raptors’ forward is a very good offensive player, an exceptional defender and a strong fit alongside Kawhi Leonard. Though Barnes’ winning qualities might have been masked during Toronto’s rebuilding years, they should be on full display now that the Raptors expect to make playoff progress with Leonard in the fold. His positional versatility on defense, his comfort playing on and off the ball, and his imposing physicality are rarely found in a player.
Chet Holmgren, Thunder
Now is a good time to buy low on the 24-year-old Holmgren, whose poor showing against Wembanyama’s Spurs in the conference finals prompted plenty of social media criticism. The 2022 No. 2 pick is arguably the league’s best rim protector other than Wembanyama, and he’s a skilled complementary scorer who can finish inside over smaller defenders and step out beyond the arc to beat traditional big men with his jumper. Oklahoma City’s deep bench has given Holmgren the luxury of playing under 30 minutes per game throughout his career, but he’s a prime candidate to pick up the offensive slack after Jalen Williams’ serious ankle injury.
Jalen Johnson, Hawks
Johnson emerged as a fantasy basketball superstar last season thanks to his eye-popping production. In reality, he still has some work to do. Though the 24-year-old forward received the keys to Atlanta’s offense after Trae Young’s departure, the Hawks were left scrambling for answers when he faltered during the playoffs. A little patience was in order, as Johnson barely played as a rookie and missed most of the 2024-25 season because of injury. Now, his reputation is set to soar if he can lead a deep and talented Hawks team on a real playoff run.
Tier 3: Standout to All-Star?
Who makes the cut: Big names aspiring for their first All-Star selection.
Cooper Flagg, Mavericks
All signs point up for the 2026 Rookie of the Year, back for his second season with a new coach in Dusty May and a healthy co-star in Irving. Flagg, 19, led Dallas in points, rebounds, assists and steals last season, flashing future MVP potential for dominant stretches. The gifted 6-foot-9 forward remains the Mavericks’ centerpiece on both ends of the floor. With James and Leonard joining Eastern Conference teams this summer, a spot could open for Flagg in the Western Conference All-Star selection process. Of course, that’s assuming the shoulder injury he suffered Friday doesn’t linger.
Austin Reaves, Lakers
After going undrafted in 2021, Reaves cashed in on years of steady, purposeful development by signing a four-year, $180 million extension this summer. Reaves has become everything the Lakers could want in a No. 2 option: He can create shots off the dribble, get to the free throw line, score effectively when off the ball and pass well enough to function as a lead or secondary playmaker. And the 28-year-old also has a knack for establishing strong interpersonal relationships with stars such as James and Doncic.
Amen Thompson, Rockets
Thompson, 23, was thrown into playmaking duties last season as Houston sought to cope with veteran guard Fred VanVleet’s knee injury. Though Thompson responded with a productive campaign that netted him a five-year, $208 million contract extension, he appears set up for a more efficient and stable role now that VanVleet’s back in the lineup as an organizer. Whether or not Thompson ever develops a reliable 3-point shot, he has All-Star tools thanks to his elite quickness, strength, power and agility. The 6-7 forward’s ability to get into the paint, finish at the rim and function as a secondary distributor separates him from the average defensive specialist.
Stephon Castle, Spurs
Castle, 21, has probably supplanted De’Aaron Fox as the most likely Spurs player besides Wembanyama to get an All-Star nod. The 2024 No. 4 pick has emerged as the best player in his draft class thanks to his relentless dribble drives and physical perimeter defense. Castle isn’t a natural point guard and has struggled with turnovers, but he’s well-situated in San Antonio as a secondary creator.
Dylan Harper, Spurs
Harper was so electric as a super substitute during San Antonio’s 2026 Finals run that he forced his way into the Spurs’ starting lineup. The 20-year-old guard is a crafty finisher with excellent body control, the ability to seamlessly change speeds and a fearlessness well beyond his years. The 2025 No. 2 pick entered the season as a popular Most Improved Player candidate, and his All-Star chances will likely be shaped by how coach Mitch Johnson manages his guard-heavy rotation.
Jaden McDaniels, Timberwolves
Though McDaniels has been a favorite of Edwards and Timberwolves fans for years, he’s positioned for greater individual recognition nationally after the departures of Julius Randle and Naz Reid this summer. As part of Minnesota’s brash and exciting new identity, the 26-year-old forward is a strong fit alongside Edwards and Ball. Long known for his physical and versatile defending, McDaniels has blossomed into a reliable third scorer during his seven-year tenure with the Timberwolves.
Brandon Miller, Hornets
Miller has taken the reins as Charlotte’s franchise player after Ball’s offseason trade. The 2023 No. 2 pick didn’t quite display superstar potential during his first three seasons, but his reliable scoring and high-volume 3-point shooting earned him a five-year, $209 million extension earlier this month. The next steps for the 23-year-old forward are clear: put more pressure on the rim, regularly get to the free throw line and help with the playmaking duties in Ball’s absence.
Tier 4: Second unit to starter?
Who makes the cut: Former backups looking to make an impact in the starting lineup.
Ty Jerome, Grizzlies
Jerome, a journeyman who enjoyed a breakout 2024-25 season with the Cleveland Cavaliers, was poised to start for the Grizzlies last season before injuries limited him to 15 games. The 29-year-old guard relished his return by scoring a career-high 45 points in Memphis’ season-opening win over the Utah Jazz. His controlled, efficient scoring and 3-point range make him a capable floor general for the Grizzlies’ rebuilding effort.
Naz Reid, Hornets
Reid, 27, was a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate for the Timberwolves, but an offseason trade to the Hornets has positioned him as a frontcourt starter and veteran leader. The undrafted big man has the chops as a scorer, rebounder and defender to handle the promotion. If things go as planned, Reid will easily average career highs in points and 3-point attempts in Charlotte’s perimeter-oriented offense.
Cason Wallace, Thunder
Wallace, 22, is the Thunder’s designated Luguentz Dort replacement: a relentless perimeter defender who balances OKC’s starting backcourt alongside two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Though Wallace doesn’t have Dort’s broad frame, he regularly blows up possessions with his incredible hands and on-ball instincts. To live up to his new five-year, $139 million contract, Wallace must show growth as a ballhandling threat and outside shooter.
Khaman Maluach, Suns
Maluach emerged as Phoenix’s starting center for opening night after Mark Williams underwent shoulder surgery in September. The 20-year-old big man is a crucial piece for the Suns’ long-term future given his 7-1 frame and potential to develop into a rim-protecting stretch 5. Whether or not Maluach maintains his starting spot, Phoenix must ensure he receives healthy playing time throughout his second season. The former Duke standout logged a paltry 411 minutes as a rookie, making him the only 2025 top-10 pick to play fewer than 1,200 minutes last season.
Tier 5: New team, new results?
Who makes the cut: players who found greener pastures thanks to recent trades.
Walker Kessler, Lakers
Kessler is now in center nirvana after a summer sign-and-trade sent him from the Jazz to the Lakers, and he will continue enjoying a steady stream of lobs from Doncic and Reaves. The 25-year-old Kessler should even draw consideration for USA Basketball’s 2028 Olympic team due to his paint finishing and interior defensive presence.
Ivica Zubac, Pacers
After thriving as a pick-and-roll partner with James Harden on the LA Clippers in years past, Zubac should occupy a similar role on Tyrese Haliburton’s Pacers. Though the 29-year-old center has never made an All-Star team, he could generate some buzz if he stacks up double-doubles in Indiana.
Darius Garland, Clippers
Garland, 26, had to keep everyone involved and defer to No. 1 option Donovan Mitchell during the latter stages of his Cavaliers tenure, but a move to the rebuilding Clippers has thrust him into a score-first role. A lack of size has held back Garland in the playoffs, but he possesses enough shot-creation ability, quickness and range to function as a three-level scorer while the Clippers wait for several key players to get healthy.
Jared McCain, Thunder
Since arriving from the 76ers in a February trade, the 22-year-old McCain has been a strong answer to the Thunder’s biggest weakness in recent years: inconsistent outside shooting. When Oklahoma City’s half-court offense bogs down, McCain has a knack for injecting energy and flow with his deadeye shooting. Don’t be surprised if there’s a Sixth Man of the Year award in his future.
Peyton Watson, Cavaliers
Watson had to leave the Nuggets for the Cavaliers in a summer sign-and-trade to secure his new four-year, $88 million contract, and the 24-year-old forward cleanly fills what was the biggest hole in Cleveland’s starting lineup. Though his offensive usage could take a hit given the Cavaliers’ many scoring threats, he will have every opportunity to showcase his value as a perimeter defender for a veteran team with Finals aspirations.
Zaccharie Risacher, Mavericks
Expectations should be modest for Risacher, the 2024 No. 1 pick who lasted just two seasons in Atlanta. But the 21-year-old French forward landed with a retooling Mavericks organization that’s seemingly motivated to fashion him into a reliable rotation player. Risacher lacks the dynamic athleticism to be a star, but he could still enjoy a lucrative career if he can pivot into a 3-and-D contributor.
Tier 6: Impact rookies
These 2026 lottery picks should be able to shine from Day 1.
Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies
Boozer, 19, should be thrilled he landed on a roster that boasts a solid lead guard in Jerome to run the offense and multiple traditional centers to protect the 6-10 power forward from wear and tear. As Boozer tries to lead the rebuilding Grizzlies back to respectability, he will benefit from having some key pieces already in place. Boozer has a head start on his fellow 2026 lottery picks when it comes to role definition and roster structure, and that could pay off with a Rookie of the Year award.
AJ Dybantsa, Wizards
The 19-year-old Dybantsa was selected No. 1 because he is a pro-ready scorer who can get downhill and draw contact. Though the Wizards will need to juggle some competing interests as they mesh veteran stars Anthony Davis and Trae Young with a younger core led by Dybantsa, the former BYU star has the highest ceiling of any Washington prospect since 2010 No. 1 pick John Wall.
Caleb Wilson, Bulls
Wilson, 20, looks headed for a roller coaster rookie season with the dreadful Bulls: After posting a minus-45 in his NBA debut against the Raptors, he responded with 30 points and 14 rebounds in a strong showing against the Wizards a few nights later. As a 6-10 forward who plays well above the rim on both ends and has set his mind on becoming a perimeter playmaker, Wilson has a strong case as the most tantalizing prospect in his class.
Darryn Peterson, Jazz
Peterson, 19, can ease into life as Utah’s starting two guard because he’s surrounded by proven scorers in Keyonte George, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. Even so, the Jazz will want to see the second pick assert himself for stretches as an off-the-dribble creator and shotmaker. Despite his injury-plagued freshman season at Kansas, Peterson proved he can get hot in a hurry.
Yaxel Lendeborg, Warriors
The 24-year-old Lendeborg is older and more physically developed than the typical rookie, which is good news for the reeling Warriors. With Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis and other key contributors out to start the season, the 6-9 Lendeborg has stepped into the starting lineup and made an immediate impact as a secondary scorer and on-ball defender. If Lendeborg sustains his production in a starting role all season, will the No. 11 pick unexpectedly beat out his teenage classmates for Rookie of the Year?