This is developing into a season of change in the NBA.
The tanking teams from last season are pivoting to full competition. Some talent has migrated to the East, and that appears to have changed the balance of power that was previously tilted to the West. And there’s expansion on the horizon, and that could spur realignment.
But there’s another trend from this summer and fall involving star players that seems to have and league executives and agents taking note.
What star player contract trend is standing out?
Brian Windhorst: There were three significant instances of star players wanting a contract extension this summer and the team played hardball, a departure from recent practice.
Karl-Anthony Towns said on the record that he wanted to extend his contract and was willing to accept less than a max deal. The New York Knicks drew a line in the sand, put out a statement ending negotiations and went into the season with Towns unsettled and unhappy. He holds a $61 million player option for 2027-28 but can decline it and become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Anthony Davis was interested in extending his contract with the Washington Wizards and, similar to Towns, has the ability to opt out for unrestricted free agency next summer. Agent Rich Paul let it be known that Davis was willing to negotiate a number below his max. But the Wizards tabled discussions, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported, and wanted to see the results of the first 20 to 30 games of the season. Davis then announced he’d wait until after the season. (The Wizards did give a new $212 million contract to Trae Young, but after he’d opted out and become a free agent).
Jalen Duren, coming off an All-Star and All-NBA season, had a summer of discontent with the Detroit Pistons before agreeing to a new deal on the eve of training camp. It’s a $200 million contract, but $87 million less than his max. Duren has said there are no hard feelings, but it was a brutal negotiation.
“A year or two ago, I don’t think you’d have seen that. The teams would’ve felt too much pressure,” an Eastern Conference executive told ESPN. “Being unhappy is not a negotiating position anymore.”
Tim MacMahon: Well, the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves sure worked hard over the summer to make sure their superstars are happy.
The Lakers went all in to acquire Walker Kessler in a sign-and-trade -- sending two first-round picks and two swaps to the Utah Jazz for the rights to give him a four-year, $130 million deal -- primarily because they promised Luka Doncic that they would deliver him the rim-running, rim-protecting big man he desired. The Lakers have a lot of built-in advantages in terms of retaining superstars, but they are clearly prioritizing keeping Doncic content.
Minnesota also made a major roster overhaul in large part to please Anthony Edwards, whom some rival executives had previously identified as a potential target. Edwards wanted to play his natural shooting guard position and was invigorated by the idea of pairing with LaMelo Ball. The Timberwolves made it happen.
The next step for the Lakers and Timberwolves will be parlaying their superstars’ happiness into signatures on contract extensions next summer, preferably after deep playoff runs.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s unhappiness eventually resulted in his departure from the Milwaukee Bucks, even if he managed to avoid publicly demanding a trade.
“He actually did them a favor,” said a Western Conference general manager, who was adamant that unhappiness is still a strong negotiating tactic for top-tier stars. “He gave them a list of five teams. He could have given them only one.”
Windhorst: It’s definitely not a universal position, and we’ll see if the trend continues. It probably will hinge, to some extent, on how the Towns and Davis situations ultimately play out. The league is especially watching Davis, who is saying all the right things for now, and put up 34 points and 12 rebounds in the Wizards’ season-opening win over the Bucks
“I know the fans are tired of hearing about the aprons, but this is just another example of how they are changing the league,” another West GM said. “The aprons give the owners a reason to take a harder line. Before, it was just about money.”
What are league insiders saying about the Thunder’s future?
Windhorst: Speaking of the second apron and who doesn’t love it, the Thunder made a significant investment this week, signing Cason Wallace to a $139 million contract extension. The move wasn’t surprising because the Thunder don’t let players get to restricted free agency; they either extend their contract or trade them.
You might have heard about how expensive the Thunder’s roster could become next season, but you likely haven’t heard the true depth of it. The Thunder are currently looking at about a $250 million payroll and about $200 million in projected luxury tax, a $450 million overall total.
But that doesn’t include the three first-round picks the Thunder own for the 2027 draft, including the LA Clippers’ pick. If you use ESPN’s preseason NBA Power Rankings as a guide, you could project the Thunder to have three picks next June -- Nos. 4 (Clippers), 23 (Nuggets) and 29 (Spurs). For the sake of demonstration, let’s say it falls that way. OKC has team options on Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber and Jaylin Williams.
The Thunder won’t keep all the picks and the players; otherwise, they’d exceed the roster cap. They are facing a roughly $500 million payroll in 2027-28, including tax, following the draft.
“They will not be paying that much, so it comes down to who and how they cut some of it,” a rival executive said. “Sam [Presti] I’m sure has studied it at length and will develop two or three paths out and will look for the cleanest option over the next year.”
League executives are watching whether the Thunder pick up options on Topic and Sorber for next season by the Nov. 2 deadline. Both players have dealt with health issues and are set to earn a combined $12 million next season, and that will cost Oklahoma City more than $60 million in added tax. Not picking up one or both could be level-setting as the Thunder manage this challenge.
“We all have our problems,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “We’d all love to have theirs.”
MacMahon: Oklahoma City media members packed the room for Presti’s annual preseason availability, but Thunder governor Clay Bennett might have been the intended audience for significant portions of the session.
Presti has been clear that the savings made over the summer will allow the Thunder to spend at the level required to maintain a championship contender during the window of back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s prime.
“For us, the ghost in the machine is the finances, not so much the aprons,” Presti said.
In other words, it’s a matter of how big of a luxury tax check Bennett is willing to sign. The same holds true for Knicks governor James Dolan, although he said during a WFAN radio appearance shortly after New York’s championship celebration that going into the second apron would be “suicidal.”
“The aprons are intended so if you are a high-spending team, you’re not in a position to add more talent,” Presti said last month. “They’re not designed to tell a team that may feel in any market that they have a very unique moment in their organizational history to pursue excellence, to say, hey, we might be here for 50 years, maybe more; this five years in the luxury tax may be something we want to be aggressive about because we don’t know how many more teams like this we’re going to have in said market, wherever that is. This could be anywhere.
“So, the choice is there for the teams to make an educated decision about what they want to pursue or what their tolerance level is for different things.”
As a GM from another playoff team put it: “There’s nothing wrong with going into the second apron for a year or two, if you’re good enough. In fact, you probably should. The repeater [tax] is actually the bigger impediment.”
What are league insiders talking about after the first few nights?
MacMahon: There’s a bright spotlight on the Philadelphia 76ers because they made two of the splashiest moves of the summer, trading for Jaylen Brown and signing LeBron James. But Joel Embiid, the longest-tenured player on the Philadelphia roster, might be the biggest wild card.
There are two main reasons for that: availability and fit, given that the Sixers no longer revolve around the big man.
So far, Embiid’s actions are encouraging. He clearly committed to improving his conditioning over the summer, reporting to training camp as slim as he has been since early in his career. That increases his odds of staying healthy and keeping up in a star-studded starting lineup that features four of the league’s best fast-break finishers.
Embiid has emphasized his desire to return to All-Defensive form and was active and impactful on that end of the floor in the season-opening win over the defending champion Knicks, who targeted him in last season’s playoff sweep. Embiid didn’t shoot the ball well, but he excelled as a facilitator out of the short roll. Nevertheless, it isn’t difficult to find skeptics about how Embiid will handle often being the third or fourth offensive option.
“I think it’s going to be a problem, and that could railroad them,” a rival scout said. “I just don’t buy it right now. He’s going to want the ball more. He’s going to get pissed. He’s going to stop playing defense. He’s going to stop running.”
Windhorst: Just about every team in the East has the potential to be polarizing, and the Miami Heat are definitely on that list. Scouts are watching how the system coach Erik Spoelstra adopted last season from consultant Noah LaRoche, one that minimizes or eliminates pick-and-rolls in a rejection of an NBA standard, works with Antetokounmpo.
The idea is to create space and let Antetokounmpo playmake by getting downhill surrounded by shooting. In the opener, he got 12 baskets in the paint, and that’s great production. But the Heat were a brutal 8-of-33 on 3-pointers and were lit up by Edwards and Ball.
“There’s going to be a lot of variance for them depending on if their shooters are hitting,” one East scout said. “They have guys who can make 3s and guys who can defend, but they don’t have guys who can reliably do both.”
MacMahon: The Boston Celtics’ hopes of remaining a contender this season rely heavily on Jayson Tatum’s return to the elite ranks in his first full season back from his Achilles tear. Off-shooting games happen, so his 6-of-23 outing in the season-opening loss to the Pistons isn’t alarming. The more concerning stat: one free throw attempt.
“I do wonder if he’s the same guy,” a scout who attended Tuesday’s game said. “Does he have the same burst and explosion? I’m not going to overreact to one game, but if the free throw numbers are down in December, that’s an indication that he’s not back to being himself coming off that Achilles. It’s a telltale sign when guys are shooting jumpers instead of getting to the rim like they used to.”
Windhorst: Certainly a highlight of the week was Warriors rookie Yaxel Lendeborg trash-talking Doncic on the floor and in the media after his regular-season debut. Lendeborg complained about Doncic’s dialogue with referees and said Doncic was overrated as an offensive player even as the Lakers were destroying the Warriors.
“Oh man, [Lakers coach] JJ [Redick] had to absolutely love that. He owes [Lendeborg] a steak dinner,” a West executive said. “Any time Luka is focused on trash-talking another player and not the refs is great for the ballclub, and nothing gets him going like that.”