NCAA storylines: Championship Weekend is here

The regular season is complete, Championship Weekend is upon us, and the committee did plenty to keep everyone guessing ahead of Selection Day on Sunday.

Tuesday’s penultimate rankings raised plenty of eyebrows, and seemingly left the fate of Notre Dame and Miami in the hands of the SEC and Big 12 title games, with potential losses by Alabama and BYU opening the door for one or both to sneak into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Texas is apparently done, much to the chagrin of Steve Sarkisian, who’s much less likely to schedule another non-conference game against a team like Ohio State down the line.

On Saturday, three of the Power Four championship games come with major playoff implications, including the ACC, which still runs the risk of not having a single representative playing meaningful football beyond this weekend.

So, sit back, enjoy, and let the committee deal with the carnage come Sunday afternoon.

Storylines for each of the major conference championships:

Could Alabama actually be left out of the playoffs with a loss?

Coming into the season, Gunner Stockton and Ty Simpson were two of the biggest “what-ifs” in the entire SEC – unproven, but leaned on, and likely to be determining factors in whether Georgia and Alabama retained their claims to a place in conference’s top tier.

The Heisman conversation? That was reserved for Arch Manning and Garrett Nussmeier, or if you wanted to swing for the fences, LaNorris Sellers or DJ Lagway.

But here we are.

On Saturday, Stockton and Simpson battle for what likely amounts to a first-round bye in the playoffs, with third-ranked Georgia certain to get a free pass if it wins and two-loss Alabama walking a delicate line between that and potentially missing altogether.

The Tide’s loss to Oklahoma in Week 13 pushed them to the brink, but they rebounded to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl and finish the regular season at 10-2. A third loss opens the door for the possibility of them slipping out the bracket, but that’s a dilemma for the committee. Is there a penalty for losing the SEC Championship when they would’ve already punched their playoff ticket had they finished third in the conference?

Simpson was at his best when Alabama had its back to the wall after losing to Florida State to start the year, but struggled with ball security as the season went along, losing a fumble in five consecutive games from Week 7 onward and throwing a pick-six in the red zone early in that loss to the Sooners.

One of his best games did come at Georgia in Week 4 – at the time, in what felt like a do-or-die for the Tide – throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-21 win. Ultimately, Simpson will fall short of either Julian Sayin or Fernando Mendoza in the Heisman race, but it won’t diminish his overall impact – and regardless of where he lands in that discussion, he’s done enough to work himself into the first-round conversation in April’s NFL Draft.

Meanwhile, Stockton got his first break in last year’s SEC Championship, stepping in for an injured Carson Beck to lead Georgia past Texas for its second conference title in three seasons, but then came up short in the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame – a loss that led to some of those preseason questions about whether or not he’d be able to carry the load.

But in September, he rallied the Bulldogs from two scores down to beat Tennessee on the road, and had two of his other best games of the season in Top-10 wins over Ole Miss and Texas.

Even with a loss, there’s a chance Georgia holds onto a bye, but that’s likely contingent on BYU beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship – a rematch of a game it lost four weeks ago. But like Alabama, Georgia is subject to the committee if it loses this weekend, and it’ll be in its hands to determine just how much it would be penalized for losing a bonus game.

Can Indiana avenge last year’s loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship?

Undefeated Ohio State and undefeated Indiana. Sounds a little familiar, doesn’t it?

Last November, the Hoosiers rolled into The Shoe with 10 straight wins and shot themselves in the foot, allowing five sacks in a mistake-ridden 38-15 loss. But they were hardly the Buckeyes’ lone victim in a year where Ohio State went on to win a National Championship.

This year, the skepticism surrounding Indiana’s pedigree is absent, and for good reason – it’s again without a loss, at 12-0, and has one of the best wins in the sport on its resume after beating Oregon on the road in October. But Curt Cignetti’s team will need to unseat Ohio State if it wants to lay a claim to the title of the best team in the country.

The good news? What happens this weekend isn’t the be-all and end-all, with both nearly guaranteed a first-round bye regardless of Saturday’s result. The winner locks down the top seed, and the loser almost surely finishes ranked in the top four – a placement that was essentially sealed when undefeated Texas A&M lost to Texas last Friday.

Mendoza and Sayin have battled all season, and recently welcomed Diego Pavia into the Heisman conversation – but only two of the three get a shot to make their final case for any voters waiting until the last moment to submit their ballots.

Mendoza was barely needed in Indiana’s season-ending win over Purdue but still accounted for three touchdowns, and Sayin benefitted from getting Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate back against Michigan last Saturday, connecting with each for touchdowns in Ohio State’s demon-exorcising win.

The folks in Columbus might be breathing easily this week in the aftermath of that visit to The Big House, but Ohio State will have to defend against an emotional letdown against what’s by far its toughest opponent to this point.

Unlike last year, when Indiana didn’t face a genuine Big Ten test until visiting Columbus in Week 12, it’s gotten its share of challenging opponents in 2025 – aside from that win in Eugene, the Hoosiers escaped Iowa with a tough win in September, and that came a week after a 53-point thrashing of then-ranked Illinois. Overall, Indiana outscored its opponents by an FBS-high 401 points, leading all Power Four teams in scoring (44.3 points per game) and trailing only Ohio State in points allowed (10.9).

The Buckeyes’ defence poses a staggering challenge unlike any Indiana has faced. They’ve allowed the least points amongst FBS teams (7.8 per game), as well as the least passing yards (121.3 per game) and overall yards (203.0). The personnel is different from the unit that drubbed Indiana last November – though it did return standouts Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs – but collectively, it’s even been better under Matt Patricia than it was a year ago under Jim Knowles, when it was arguably already the best in college football.

Five-loss Duke actually has a shot to make the playoffs if it wins the ACC

The ACC’s doomsday scenario is upon us, with five-loss Duke winning a five-team tiebreaker to grab a spot in the conference title game against Virginia.

How exactly does that happen, you might ask?

Duke was 7-5 overall, but 6-2 in the ACC, advancing ahead of SMU, Miami, Pitt and Georgia Tech on the strength of their opponents’ combined winning percentage. And just like that, a school that lost to UConn during the regular season – in football, NOT basketball – might put the committee in a position where they have to let it in the playoffs.

As it stands, 20th-ranked Tulane is the Group of Five playoff representative, but Friday’s AAC Championship between it and North Texas will ultimately decide which of those two teams get through. Should Duke beat Virginia, the committee has another dilemma on its hands – does it let the Blue Devils in, or does it reach outside the Power Four for another G5 representative? That would almost surely be James Madison, which is ranked 25th and is a heavy favourite against Troy in the Sun Belt Championship.

Of course, this is all made simple with a Virginia win. It beat Duke handily three weeks ago, and secured its spot atop the ACC with a convincing 27-7 win over rival Virginia Tech last Saturday.

The real travesty – for anyone not stationed in South Bend, that is – is Miami’s current omission from the bracket, with its Week 1 win over Notre Dame still not holding up with the committee. The Hurricanes finished the regular season last Saturday with their fourth straight dominant win, pounding Pitt 38-7 – and punctuating it with a 33-yard touchdown pass by Carson Beck in the final minute.

Think they’re trying to send a message? If so, it might finally be getting through.

This week’s rankings held Miami steady at 12 – still two spots out of the bracket, when you consider Tulane, and Virginia, which is the current ACC placeholder – but it’s within striking range of Notre Dame, which slipped a spot to 10th. If 11th-ranked BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship, the Irish and Hurricanes end up back-to-back, and that head-to-head result might finally be taken into consideration.

So, what happens in Dallas on Saturday might actually be the deciding factor on whether Notre Dame or Miami finds itself road bound for a playoff game in two weeks.

Texas Tech could secure a bye with a win in the Big 12 Championship

The selection committee’s stance on the Big 12 has become clear over the past few weeks: If Texas Tech wins, it’s a one-bid league. That means BYU’s playoff hopes are on the line this weekend.

The Red Raiders spent freely in the portal, and the results have paid off, with an 11-1 record on the strength of a defensive front that’s been downright dominant. Texas Tech has allowed just 11.3 points per game, and has been the best in the nation against the run, allowing just 827 yards – 124 fewer than runner-up Indiana.

It has been a mind-blowing turnaround, considering it finished 121st out of 134 FBS teams in points allowed just a season ago.

New additions Romello Height, Lee Hunter and David Bailey are all-Big 12 first teamers, and they’ve been perfect fits alongside Defensive Player of the Year Jacob Rodriguez, who asserted himself as one of the best all-around players in college football this season. Rodriguez finished third in the conference with 101 tackles, led all FBS linebackers with four interceptions, and was first in the nation with seven forced fumbles.

And Rodriguez has already left a mark on BYU this season.

In Texas Tech’s 29-7 win last month, he factored in on two of the Cougars’ four turnovers – a forced fumble in third quarter, and a recovery in the fourth – in a game where it limited BYU to a season-low 255 yards.

That win was characteristic of what the Red Raiders have been doing all season.

The Big 12, known for parity and one-score games? It’s been flipped on its head.

All eight of Texas Tech’s conference wins have come by 22 or more points – BYU providing the biggest challenge – and it trailed only Indiana in overall differential, outscoring opponents by a total of 383 points (29.4 per game).

Win again this weekend, and Texas Tech is nearly certain to get a bye in the first round. Lose, and it’s still likely to find itself in the bracket, potentially even hosting a game in Lubbock.