We’re into the final month of the season and the College Football Playoff selection committee has released its first rankings. So, what better way to usher November in that with Elimination Saturday?
That’s what Week 10 feels like for almost half the SEC, with six two-loss teams clinging to life. Texas and Missouri go head-to-head, Alabama and LSU meet at Death Valley, and Ole Miss and Tennessee aren’t exactly off the hook either. Trinidad Chambliss will have to fend off Georgia to save the Rebels’ season, and the Vols are home to one-loss Kentucky – a game that’s equally riveting for a fan base in Lexington that’s usually shifted its focus to basketball by this stage of the year.
Sure, three losses might still leave you with a glimmer of hope in the SEC, but it likely won’t in the Big Ten. That’s where Ohio State – the current first team out, according to the committee – is fighting to save its season after losing to USC in its first game without starting quarterback Julian Sayin. But hey, anything can happen, and with Indiana looking increasingly vulnerable, things could get really muddy up north, and it could open the door for a handful of teams that are still in the mix for a conference title game berth.
Notre Dame knows it’s better off not leaving any blurred lines this time around. Last year, the Irish were left out of the playoffs in a cloud of controversy after finishing 10-2 – a record they’re better off one-upping this season, even if everyone in South Bend thinks it was perfectly sufficient.
On Saturday, top-ranked Miami comes to them in what could again be the game that defines Notre Dame’s season and determines whether it’ll be playing in December or opting to skip out on the Pop Tarts Bowl for the second straight year. On Tuesday, the Irish checked in at 11 in the committee’s initial rankings, meaning a signature win is likely needed this time around as well.
In the Big 12, BYU visits undefeated Utah in what isn’t necessarily an elimination game for the Cougars, though a loss would certainly shrink its margin for error, particularly if Texas Tech wins out and punches its ticket back to Arlington. Suddenly, what was looking like a three-bid league a few weeks ago could shrink – perhaps all the way back to one, as it’s been each of the past two years.
Survive and advance, as Jim Valvano once famously said. And if you live to see another Saturday, there’s usually another challenge on deck.
November is here, and things are heating up just as the weather starts to cool.
A closer look at what’s on the line in Week 10:
Notre Dame needs a signature win to make the playoffs
The Hurricanes held off the Irish in Week 1 last year, then watched in bewilderment as the committee ranked the Irish higher throughout November before flipping them on selection day.
This time around, the easiest solution would simply be for Notre Dame to beat Miami when they meet in South Bend on Saturday – a win that would ensure its inclusion in the playoffs this time around, while doing very little damage to Miami’s chances in a year where it’s been most unchallenged. Everyone’s happy, right?
Miami certainly won’t roll over, though it has flown close to the sun in two of its past three games, with a close call against Florida State in Week 7 and another last weekend on the road against Bill Belichick and North Carolina. Notre Dame wasn’t exactly convincing in its own win over Navy in Week 9, taking a one-point lead to halftime in a game it was favoured to win by more than four touchdowns.
The Irish’s playoff bid also took a pair of indirect hits with SMU’s loss to Syracuse last Saturday, which bumped the Mustangs out of the AP Poll and caused them to be left out of Tuesday’s CFP rankings, and another in Wisconsin’s 30-0 loss to Iowa – leaving Notre Dame without a single ranked opponent outside of BYU and Miami.
In going 10-2 last year, Marcus Freeman’s team had ranked wins over USC and Pitt – and even those weren’t enough to sway the committee, which also took its 29.7-point average margin of victory into account. The initial rankings seemed to place a major incentive on big wins, and beating Syracuse and Boston College later this month – presumably, at least – likely won’t exactly scratch that itch.
Notre Dame did catch a break Wednesday with news of Malachi Toney’s high-ankle sprain in Miami’s practice, which will require surgery and is expected to keep him out for the rest of the regular season.
Darian Mensah is amongst the Heisman frontrunners but will have to lean on the Hurricanes’ other playmakers – a group that includes a pair of accomplished runners in Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory, as well as receiver Cooper Barkate, who was Mensah’s go-to target last year when they were both at Duke. Barkate should be shadowed by standout corner Leonard Moore – the star of the Irish’s secondary, and a projected top-five pick in next April’s draft.
CJ Carr could be primed to exploit a Miami defence that’s been uncharacteristically shaky over the past month, having allowed 93 points in the Hurricanes’ last three wins. In Week 9, North Carolina’s Billy Edwards Jr. threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns – by far the best game of his five-year college career, which has included stops at three different schools. Carr was quiet in Notre Dame’s loss to BYU in Week 8 but bounced back against Navy with 210 yards and a pair of touchdown passes.
Several SEC fates could be decided this weekend
Georgia reaffirmed itself as the favourite in the SEC with a comfortable win over Florida in Week 9, but it still isn’t out of the woods.
On Saturday, the Bulldogs are in Oxford to face Ole Miss, which pushed them to the brink in that same setting in 2024 and eliminated them from the playoffs in the Sugar Bowl this past January. Chambliss was a revelation in that latter game and had one of his best performances of this season last Saturday against Auburn, throwing two touchdowns and rushing for another in the Rebels’ 45-15 win. There might have to be more off-script magic from Chambliss against Georgia, with star running back Kewan Lacy still out with the shoulder injury he aggravated against Texas two weeks ago.
Kentucky also has a bit of wiggle room as the only team in the conference other than Georgia with just one loss, but it isn’t eager to join the cluster of teams that are jostling to stay alive. The Wildcats’ ascent in their first year under Will Stein has been one of the surprises of college football this season, but they’ve also been teetering on the edge with a pair of overtime wins over South Carolina and LSU and a narrow road win over Oklahoma. Kentucky is away on Saturday to face Tennessee, which is coming off a bye and is trying to avoid a third loss that likely ends its season.
Alabama and LSU meet in what looks like an elimination game for the second time in three years, after the Tide stormed into Baton Rouge and won 42-13 two seasons ago.
Kalen DeBoer’s team was the lightning rod of Tuesday’s rankings, landing fifth despite having two losses in the last month and a difficult win at home over Texas A&M. Of course, that could flip with a loss to Lane Kiffin – a third might seal Alabama’s fate, with only Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn remaining on its schedule. LSU could lose this weekend and work its way back into the picture, with Texas on deck next Saturday and a trip to Tennessee in Week 12.
The Longhorns still might have the best two-loss resume in the sport and could also lean on that matchup at Death Valley next weekend if there’s a letdown Saturday against Missouri.
Texas already has plenty to overcome, with a stash of injuries that could make life difficult for Arch Manning – left tackle Trevor Goosby and running back Hollywood Smothers are out for the year, and receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are both up in the air after leaving last week’s win against Mississippi State with shoulder injuries. Star edge rusher Colin Simmons has also missed the past two games with a high-ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for this weekend.
Ohio State is on the brink, the Big Ten is up for grabs
Amidst the year-to-year chaos of college football, there seems to be one constant. Every season, when the games really start to matter, you can count on Ohio State being right there.
Make no mistake — November is the most consequential month of the regular season by far, and what remains has plenty of meaning for the Buckeyes. But after a loss to USC that simultaneously resurrected the Trojans, Ryan Day’s team is likely playing to save its playoff hopes from here on out. For the first time since 2011, Ohio State enters the final month with two losses.
Luke Fahey will start against Oregon this weekend – his second straight, after passing for 260 yards and a touchdown against USC – in place of Sayin, who’s expected to miss the rest of the season with an injury to his throwing arm. Outside of his red-zone struggles (2-of-10 with just eight yards), Fahey was competent against the Trojans, with Ohio State’s defence the main culprit in its 30-18 loss. Now, he’s home to face the Ducks, and will be for three of the Buckeyes’ final four games – each of which seems imperative to win after the committee listed them 12th in Tuesday’s rankings.
UCLA still sits undefeated atop the Big Ten, but there’s a growing clutter and a myriad of scenarios that could play out over the final month in advance of the conference title game.
Indiana is currently in second place, but Ohio State has the inside track if it wins out, having won in Bloomington in Week 7. The Hoosiers have plenty of questions surrounding quarterback Josh Hoover’s health, and host USC next Saturday in another matchup that could shift the balance, and even Oregon is clinging to life after rallying to beat Northwestern in Week 9 and could revive its playoff hopes if it finds a way against the Buckeyes this weekend.
Amidst it all, there is the Bruins – one of the more unlikely undefeated teams to this point in the season in recent memory. They’re onto their backup quarterback as well, but have won three times with Ty Dieffenbach, who’s managed UCLA’s offence capably while leaning on running backs Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods with Nico Iamaleava sidelined with a torn ACL. Dieffenbach will get his first road test on Saturday against Minnesota, which lost in overtime on the road against Indiana in Week 9 – a rather improbable win for the Hoosiers, who needed a 60-yard field goal from Paddy McAteer to force the extra period.
Meanwhile, for all the uncertainty and unrest surrounding Ohio State, it still controls its own fate, and it still has Jeremiah Smith, whose Heisman odds got a bump with Toney’s injury on Wednesday. The Buckeyes don’t face any pushovers over the final four weeks of the season, but also don’t have an opponent that’s currently ranked, with Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan remaining following the Ducks.
Can the Big 12 avoid being a one-bid playoff league?
For the first time in the 130-year history of the Holy War, Utah and BYU meet in a top-10 matchup on Saturday. The selection committee ranked Utah third on Tuesday night – six slots ahead of BYU, which is eager to regain its momentum after the pair of uneven weeks that have followed its win over Notre Dame.
That win over the Irish last month gave the Big 12 a collective boost, but you get the feeling it still has something to prove. The Cougars squandered their favour in a double overtime loss to UCF in Week 8 and didn’t look great against Arizona State last weekend, and a loss in Salt Lake City on Saturday would give Texas Tech the inside track on a conference title game berth.
The Red Raiders didn’t exactly get a vote of confidence from the committee in its initial ranking, slotting in at 15th – and it feels like their most likely path to the playoffs would be winning it out, including over the Utes in Arlington in December. Last year, BYU was in that same spot – it finished 11-1 and reached the Big 12 Championship but was left out after losing to Texas Tech for a second time.
Utah is one of three remaining undefeated teams in the FBS, but its business isn’t finished yet either. A loss to BYU bumps the Cougars into first in the conference, though the Utes would still rank ahead of Texas Tech because of their win over Cincinnati and the Red Raiders’ loss. That would place added emphasis on Utah’s road game against 22nd-ranked Arizona in Week 11, and another loss in that matchup would almost certainly bump it from the playoff conversation if it finishes 10-2.
BYU, on other hand, could have a genuine case for an at-large bid if it wins 10 times and misses out on the conference title game, thanks to that win over Notre Dame – though the Irish’s result against Miami this weekend could have a major impact on determining that fate.
We’re into the final month of the season, and everything is still up for grabs. In the Big 12, and across all of college football.