NCAA storylines: The really meaningful games begin

After 14 chaotic weeks of regular-season football, things really ramped up in the first two and a half weeks of December.

As expected, Lane Kiffin hopped on a plane and left Ole Miss for LSU just two days after leading the Rebels to a win in the Egg Bowl to clinch a spot in the playoffs.

There was uproar surrounding the biggest brand in the entire sport, after Notre Dame was bounced from the playoff bracket by the Selection Committee at the 11th hour.

And of course, controversy at Michigan, with Sherrone Moore fired and then arrested at the home of a Michigan staffer the school said he had an inappropriate relationship with.

But it wasn’t all bad.

Fernando Mendoza led Indiana past defending national champion Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game on the first Saturday of the month, then won the Heisman seven days later.

And now, the really meaningful games begin.

The first round of the College Football Playoff gets underway Friday with four games, all on the campuses of the higher seeds. And if there’s any debate over how important that home-field advantage is, keep in mind that the host won each of the four matchups in the inaugural tournament last year.

So, how will things play out this time around?

Storylines for each of this weekend’s matchups:

Can Alabama avenge last month’s loss to Oklahoma?

Come playoff time, we’re typically looking forward to those rare matchups – the ones that seem to come along once in a generation that we’re not used to seeing.

But sometimes there’s nothing wrong with a little familiarity.

Alabama and Oklahoma meet for the second time in just over a month on Friday, with the Crimson Tide trying to avenge a 23-21 loss in Tuscaloosa – a game where the Sooners were outgained by nearly 200 yards, but managed to win on the strength of their pulverizing defensive front.

Oklahoma sacked Ty Simpson four times and forced three turnovers, including a first-quarter pick six that set the tone for an all-around frustrating afternoon for the folks in Tuscaloosa.

Was the initial matchup a statistical anomaly, or a sign of what to expect when the two teams meet again this weekend?

In Simpson’s case, the concern seems genuine. He lost a fumble in five straight games leading up to and through that loss to the Sooners last month, and hasn’t been strong as a passer since, throwing two interceptions against Eastern Illinois and combining for just 344 yards against Auburn and in Alabama’s SEC Championship loss to Georgia.

In the latter, Simpson completed just 19-of-39 passing attempts and threw a pick – his fourth in four games, after having just two in the nine games prior – that led to a touchdown and essentially put the game out of reach before halftime.

Oklahoma’s defence has feasted on every quarterback it can get its hands on, too. The Sooners were tied with Texas A&M for the most sacks in the nation (41), and allowed an SEC-low 13.9 points per game – two fewer than second-place Georgia, and three and a half fewer than the Tide.

Other factors will certainly come into play, particularly questions surrounding Oklahoma’s own passing attack, which hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since John Mateer’s quick return from thumb surgery in late September.

In seven games since, he’s thrown for just six touchdowns with seven interceptions, and was limited by Alabama to a season-low 138 yards – though he did manage to be impactful with his legs, muscling his way to a 20-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter.

The result of Friday’s game might have a resonating impact, particularly for Alabama, with head coach Kalen DeBoer linked – by the media, albeit – to Michigan in the wake of Moore’s dismissal last week.

DeBoer was adamant on Monday that he’ll be back in Tuscaloosa next season, though a first-round collapse on the heels of missing last year’s playoffs altogether might just leave both him and the Tide rethinking their paths forward.

Which destructive defence will do more damage when Texas A&M meets Miami?

As if being left out of the playoffs wasn’t painful enough for the people in South Bend, Miami and Texas A&M meet Saturday afternoon in the “We Beat Notre Dame Bowl.”

It’s a game likely to be won or lost at the line of scrimmage, with Texas A&M the FBS co-leader in sacks, and Miami boasting a pair of edge rushers in Reuben Bain Jr. and Akeem Mesidor that can take over a game — something that pair did late against the Irish in Week 1, when they combined to sack CJ Carr twice on the game’s final drive.

If the Hurricanes’ defensive front manages to keep Marcel Reed in the pocket and manages to win the turnover battle on Saturday, they’re likely to end up in the win column like they did against Notre Dame.

Reed was in the Heisman conversation for the better part of this season, but ran into some trouble late, throwing six interceptions in the Aggies’ final six games.

That was part of an overall troubling trend for Texas A&M down the stretch, with it having to erase a 27-point halftime deficit to beat South Carolina in Week 12 before having its undefeated season and path to a playoff bye ruined by Arch Manning and rival Texas in the finale.

Of course, plenty hinges on Carson Beck as well, who’s starting the playoffs for the first time in his career after injuring his elbow in last year’s SEC Championship with Georgia.

Beck seems to have emerged from his second annual mid-season swoon, having thrown 11 touchdowns with just one interception in Miami’s past four wins – a streak where the Hurricanes have outscored their opponents by a combined 110 points.

But like last season, when he threw all 12 of his interceptions over a six-game stretch, he’s been prone to making mistakes in bunches, with six of his 10 picks from this year coming in Miami’s losses to Louisville and SMU.

And how about an X-Factor who could have a major impact both this weekend and beyond?

Last year, Jeremiah Smith caught 19 passes as a true freshman and scored five times in Ohio State’s four-game match to a National Championship. This year, Malachi Toney has a similar chance to stand out in the playoffs in his first year, after finishing the regular third amongst ACC receivers with 84 catches and tied for first with seven touchdowns.

How much can Trinidad Chambliss’ legend grow in the playoffs?

If you’re Ole Miss, how do you respond in the wake of having been left at the altar by Kiffin at the pinnacle of your best regular season in over 60 years? One thing that’s safe to assume: The spurned fans in Oxford will be plenty riled up when Tulane rolls into Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday.

Former defensive coordinator Pete Golding has been handed the full-time reins, and Kiffin was “generous” enough to lend outgoing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. to Ole Miss for the playoffs after allegedly threatening to purge the entire program on his way out the door.

Another guy who is still there is Trinidad Chambliss, who made the unprecedented leap from D-II Ferris State, earning conference Newcomer of the Year honours and finishing eighth in Heisman voting.

Chambliss was as opportunistic as he was electrifying, taking the starting quarterback job from Austin Simmons after he was hurt in Week 2 and never relinquishing it. Chambliss led the Rebels to 10 wins in 11 starts and finished with 24 total touchdowns and just three interceptions.

Does Ole Miss has a leader it can lean on, throughout the playoffs and into the post-Kiffin era?

That’s where things get complicated.

Chambliss is a senior, but is currently petitioning the NCAA for an added year of eligibility, attempting to claim a retroactive redshirt for his second season at Ferris State. And in the event it’s granted, there’s the possibility of him entering the transfer portal, and perhaps throwing salt on the gaping wound that Kiffin’s left behind.

Chambliss hasn’t made any direct statements about the possibility of playing at LSU next season, but his comments when asked about potentially moving on left Ole Miss fans with plenty to read into.

For now, though, the focus is on the first round and a matchup with Tulane – a team the Rebels beat 45-10 during the regular season. Should Ole Miss get through, it’ll be bound for New Orleans for a meeting with Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day – a rematch of the only game it lost during the regular season.

Oregon has a favourable path, and a quarterback to lead the way

How pleased do you think the Ducks are about nabbing the fifth seed in this year’s bracket?

Last year, Oregon went undefeated, beat Penn State in the Big Ten Championship, got the first seed and then ended up getting obliterated by eventual-champion Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

This year’s path is much more favourable, beginning Saturday against 12th-seeded James Madison — a game Oregon is favoured by three scores in. Win that, and it’s off to the Orange Bowl to face Texas Tech.

These are the types of stages Dante Moore envisioned when he initially committed to Oregon in 2022, before flipping to UCLA after Kenny Dillingham left his post as offensive coordinator to take the lead job at Arizona State. Moore’s route back to Eugene started two Decembers ago, when he transferred and sat for a season behind Dillon Gabriel, electing to redshirt his junior year.

This season, Moore was amongst the best quarterbacks in all of college football, passing for touchdowns and leading Oregon to an 11-1 record. And he saved two of his best performances for two of the Ducks’ toughest opponents down the stretch, throwing for 543 yards in wins over USC and rival Washington that helped them punch their playoff ticket over the final two weeks.

Moore is draft-eligible and is currently projecting a top-five pick, but hasn’t given off any clear indication about which direction he’s leaning. Should he go pro, it likely sets the tempo for an eventful transfer period, with Dan Lanning likely to dip back into the portal. Dylan Raiola, DJ Lagway, Brandon Sorsby and Josh Hoover have already entered their names, and reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Sam Leavitt is likely to be available in January as well.

Assuming Oregon gets past James Madison on Saturday, Moore might get his biggest test yet against Texas Tech, which has the best linebacker in the nation in Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey, who led all Power Four players with 13.5 sacks.