Are you excited for NFL Week 6? Sure, Bills-Rams just ended like eight hours ago. But the Seahawks and Broncos are playing in another iteration of the Russell Wilson bowl on Thursday! The Texans’ season hangs on the brink against the Jaguars in London on Sunday morning. Caleb Williams should be back for the Bears against the Falcons Sunday afternoon! And Micah Parsons ... apparently won’t play in his revenge game against the Cowboys on Sunday night. Whatever.
Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I’ll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren’t full-scale predictions. They aren’t concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it’ll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you’ll find a few extra half-thoughts ... just those little inklings I’m unable to shake.
This week, I’ll start with a quarterback change I’m expecting to see soon, touch on a couple of defenses in need of big talent lifts, and anticipate an improvement for an undefeated team. Here are seven things I think ahead of Week 6.
I think ... Kirk Cousins will get one more start before Fernando Mendoza time
Cousins has been totally solid for the Raiders this season. Relative to expectation and contract, there has been nothing disappointing about his play.
That said, the Patriots went after him Sunday. New England defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr blitzed Cousins on 41.2% of his first-half dropbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and got a 53% pressure rate and two sacks for his trouble. Although Cousins is a wily veteran capable of identifying blitzes and carving them up with hot routes, he’s also 38 years old and was not particularly mobile even a decade ago, let alone now.
The Patriots’ game plan was apparent and smart. With starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III both unavailable due to injuries and a couple of depth corners also laid up, Kuhr tried to break the Raiders’ passing game at the pocket before Cousins could attack his inexperienced cover men. On paper, it didn’t work too great -- Cousins was 10-for-15 with 123 yards and a score through two quarters. But it got the Patriots off the field when they needed it.
Here’s a Cover 0 snap on third-and-5. Cousins can’t backpedal fast enough to buy time on the pressure and can’t get enough arm into the throw to drive it before the cornerback arrives. Charles Woods, the third-year corner making his first career start, has plenty of time to arrive for the pass breakup.
Here’s an extremely similar look on third-and-14 -- already a tough down to handle. Cousins hangs a vertical ball up for Tre Tucker against Kindle Vildor, who was called up from the Pats’ practice squad. It’s the right read and an open throw, but the ball is uncatchable.
Now, a guy should not be benched for an uncatchable third-and-14 heave against Cover 0. But Kuhr was able to deploy this approach because he knew Cousins couldn’t burn him with escapability and play extension. Once Kuhr manufactured the free rusher, he could tell his young corners with total confidence that the ball would come out fast. Drive on the first break. Play aggressive, attack the catch point. Don’t worry about eyes in the backfield or long-developing routes -- those won’t happen.
Cousins has 10 dropbacks on the season in which he, at any point, starts to scramble. Only Michael Penix Jr., Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love have fewer. He has just three actual scrambles (dropbacks on which he crosses the line of scrimmage to run). Only 7.6% of his throws have come with him on the move (only Stafford and Jared Goff have lower percentages), and his average speed at release of 2.85 mph, per Next Gen Stats, is the lowest of all passers this season.
Cousins simply does not move. Quarterbacks such as Stafford, Goff and Penix have much bigger arms to get away with this play style, while quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow have their elite processing and accuracy to get away with it. At his age, Cousins doesn’t have those cardinal traits. He has enough arm, and he certainly has plus accuracy and processing. But it’s not enough to tip the scales back in his favor.
This has not been a death knell for the Raiders through five weeks, as Cousins is 10th in the league in EPA per pressured dropback and 11th in success rate on pressured dropbacks. He’s making do with what he has. But the limitation is apparent, and future opponents will attack it. The Raiders have the Bills in Week 6, the Rams in Week 7 and the Jets in Week 8. The Rams and Jets are above average in blitz rate on the season, and the Bills are right around average. They’re going to come after Cousins and make the bet Kuhr did -- that eventually the Raiders’ lack of a running game will stick them in third-and-long, and those blitzes will create early and errant throws.
The Raiders might have a solution to this problem: the spry legs of Mendoza that have done little but warm a bench through five weeks.
I have no doubt that the Raiders will initially be worse against pressures and blitzes when they first deploy Mendoza. He is a rookie and lacks the Spidey-sense that Cousins has honed over a decade-plus of NFL football. Mendoza will take bad sacks and throw the ball into coverage traps because that’s what rookies do.
But he’ll also move. He will create second-reaction throws that have yet to exist in this offense. He’ll allow head coach Klint Kubiak to dust off the rollout sections of his playbook, which were so integral for Sam Darnold in Seattle but have been shelved for Cousins in Vegas. Mendoza is not known as an elite mover, but he’s totally functional -- and most importantly, leagues ahead of Cousins.
To quickly pivot from Cousins to Mendoza might feel like an early abandonment of a well-laid developmental plan. But I would argue that the pivot is justified. The Raiders are currently 3-2 in a suddenly much-more-winnable AFC West than previously believed. Yes, the Chiefs are 4-0 -- but the Raiders went neck-and-neck with them in Week 4, and both the Broncos (3-2) and Chargers (0-5) have been clearly worse than Las Vegas through five weeks. The 1.5 games back should not deter the Raiders from pushing for the division -- and in that effort, potentially landing a wild-card berth regardless.
I won’t be too upset if they keep riding the Cousins train. Like I said, the lack of mobility is a problem but not one that has totally hamstrung an otherwise solid passing attack. The Raiders could defensibly stick with Cousins for another month or two and still prioritize Mendoza’s development over anything else. After all, benching Cousins after Week 6 would give Mendoza to the Rams and (presumably) Myles Garrett in Week 7 -- that’s a stiff ask.
But it’s hard to win those first three games ... then lose two ... and not wonder if the team is closer to contention than expected. And then not wonder whether Mendoza’s timeline should be accelerated to match.
I think ... the Seahawks have too many eggs in the Zach Charbonnet basket
Last season, Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 15.1% of the team’s total touches. That was the fourth-highest number for a non-running back leaguewide. His 36% target share was the highest for a single player since 2012 Brandon Marshall. It was incredible to see how successfully the Seahawks built the entire plane, especially in the passing game, out of JSN.
Because we all thought the Smith-Njigba breakout and accompanying Seahawks offense were so rad last season, it’s important not to quickly flip sides this season. Smith-Njigba has 35% of his team’s target share through five games (once again leading the league) and 16% of his team’s touches (behind only CeeDee Lamb and Trey McBride). This has largely not been a problem. Smith-Njigba is off to a screaming start, averaging 116.6 yards per game with seven touchdowns through five contests, and the Seahawks’ offense has had a healthy passing attack despite Sam Darnold missing most of two games. They are 12th in success rate on dropbacks, 15th in EPA per dropback and 11th in explosive pass rate.
But once again, the running game is the lagging half of the offensive effort. Seattle is 31st in EPA per rush (minus-0.22) thanks in large part to two devastating fumbles against the 49ers in Week 5 -- one in its own end zone, one within 11 yards of it. Even without the huge negative plays, however, the Seahawks are 27th in success rate on rushes. Their 3.5 yards per carry on running back rushes ranks fifth lowest in the NFL, and their 43.8% conversion rate on short-yardage carries (9-for-21) is league-worst.
The Seahawks’ position has remained steady, even before Emanuel Wilson and George Holani each fumbled the football against the 49ers: They can’t wait for Charbonnet to return from his knee injury. Even when they drafted first-round rookie Jadarian Price, currently on IR with a chest injury, they were clear that it would be a timeshare with Charbonnet, just like they ran with Kenneth Walker III last season.
It’s hard for me to swallow the idea that Charbonnet is going to solve the running game’s problems. The Seahawks have 0.6 yards before contact on RB carries this season (league average is 1.0) and have a 7.1% explosive rate (league average is 9.2%). Charbonnet’s best quality is how well he breaks through contact at the first level, as 91.5% of his rushing yards came after contact last season, the fifth-highest rate among running backs. His best play comes through contact because he doesn’t work into space well or run away from pursuit once he gets there; he had a 6.5% explosive run rate last season, 125th out of 136 qualifying backs.
Charbonnet brings some value in the passing game and as a pass protector, but the Seahawks haven’t been deficient there. Their backs have contributed well as receivers and blockers through five weeks. When he comes back, the bad fumbles should disappear, though. Charbonnet has zero fumbles through three seasons as a pro. But the short-yardage issues? Charbonnet had a 60.6% conversion rate there last season, 49th among 65 qualifying backs. But that’s not a Charbonnet stat -- it’s a Seahawks offensive line stat.
The summary here is what we already know: Charbonnet is a timeshare back with whom the Seahawks might have beaten the 49ers ... but not a 20-plus-touch player who will solve all their offensive ills.
Who will? Perhaps Price can achieve Walker-level explosiveness when he comes back from his stint on injured reserve. But Seattle’s running game never topped out above average last season until it got wicked hot behind Walker in the postseason, and it’s unfair to expect this year’s unit to exceed last year’s performance after the departures of Walker and offensive designer Klint Kubiak.
Can the passing game pick up the slack? This is where we get back to the Smith-Njigba question, such as it is. Smith-Njigba had 15% of the team’s touches last season -- remember, that’s with the highest target density a pass catcher has seen in almost 15 years -- and is up to 16% this year. The highest touch share a non-running back has seen is 2011 Percy Harvin at 19% (he got 52 carries to join his 87 receptions). Michael Thomas set the single-season receptions record in 2019 and barely broke 18%. Smith-Njigba’s share of the offense is already near critical mass. The Seahawks simply cannot get him many more touches than they already are.
Again, Seattle’s offense is far from bad. But it doesn’t feel as healthy as it did last season, and that’s because there’s really nobody besides Smith-Njigba whom you want to get the football. Put the backs aside for now. Rashid Shaheed, who signed for $17 million annually in free agency last year while players such as Walker, Coby Bryant and Boye Mafe left for other franchises, has nine catches on 19 targets through five weeks. Elijah Arroyo, the 2025 second-round pick at tight end, has one reception on two targets. AJ Barner, who broke out as a true Y tight end last season, has seen his catch rate fall (76.5% to 60.0%) and his yards per target have dropped with it (7.6 to 6.1) as the Seahawks have made him more of a checkdown valve in 2026 than the surprising shot-play target he was in 2025.
Nobody feels like an emergent player deserving of volume, which makes the Charbonnet return feel less encouraging and more ... ominous. Charbonnet averaged 12.75 touches per game last season, good for 24.5% of the Seahawks’ offense. When he comes back, will that number climb to 30%, where Walker was in 2025? Or even higher? Do we want a player without explosive traits taking that many touches in the offense?
I need someone else in Seattle to emerge as a player to whom I’d want to give the ball -- and not just for a cool Tory Horton play-action shot here and a nifty Shaheed reverse there. It’s not a dire need or a damning weakness in a hopeful contender. But the way Seattle’s offense finished its Super Bowl run despite its lack of secondary options behind Smith-Njigba was a blip, not a blueprint. This is an issue worth watching as the Seahawks sand off the rough edges in their repeat efforts.
I think ... neither coach whose team committed end-of-game errors on Sunday will survive the season
The Eagles are 2-3. The Commanders are, somehow, 1-3-1. Both teams feel like they’re on the brink of collapse.
Let’s start in Washington, where Jayden Daniels returned to the starting lineup against a division-leading 3-1 Giants team. It rained all game. But that played into the Commanders’ hands -- they have the better rushing attack with Daniels under center, and it showed. Second-year running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored from 33 yards out in the opening quarter; his longest run of the season before that point was 11 yards. Daniels ran for two touchdowns of at least 25 yards and became the first quarterback since Michael Vick (Week 13 of 2002) to do so. His second scamper set the Commanders up with a 27-13 lead with 11 minutes remaining. ESPN Analytics had the Commanders with a 96% win probability at this point.
You already know what happened next. The Giants strung together two touchdown drives to force overtime. They were well in game-winning field goal range -- first-and-10 on Washington’s 24 -- but still running the ball to assist rookie kicker Dominic Zvada, who was 2-for-5 in the sloppy conditions. Daron Payne forced an unbelievable fumble on Cam Skattebo to give the Commanders the ball and a chance to win it as the extra period expired. According to ESPN Research, it was the first turnover on a next-score-wins play inside the opponent’s 25-yard line since the 2001 season -- a muffed snap.
The Commanders squandered their gift, making it down to the Giants’ 26-yard line before unintentionally running the clock to zeros.
A mistake this egregious is on literally everybody. Quinn went up to the podium and wore it, as he should -- he’s the head coach, and all 11 players in the huddle clearly did not understand the objective of the play as the Commanders called it. Same issue for David Blough, the offensive coordinator who was the one relaying information to Daniels through the headset. And Daniels, independent of any call from the sideline, is the player holding the football. He knows the clock is running; he knows (or at least should know) he has no timeouts. He simply cannot be tackled in bounds. He has to throw the ball away.
Quinn should not lose his job because Daniels short-circuited on a play he didn’t fully understand. But you can’t really come back from this. It’s Quinn’s third season as the head coach in Washington, and all the magic of Daniels’ rookie year and that deep 2024 playoff run is forgotten. If Washington can’t beat this version of the Giants -- up by 14, in the rain, facing a backup quarterback and with a hand-delivered victory at the end of overtime -- it’s hard to imagine it’ll beat enough teams to justify keeping the staff. Remember, Quinn made two coordinator changes last offseason. He’s all out of cards to play to keep his seat for another year if things don’t change very quickly.
The Eagles are a more interesting conversation. They might have enough talent to win some games down the stretch. They’re only 2-3 and have lost consecutive games in which they, at one point, had a win probability of at least 95%. Of course, they stole a win from the Titans in Week 2 -- but if it all comes out in the wash, the Eagles are probably a .500 team. Receiver DeVonta Smith and running back Saquon Barkley will come back from their hamstring injuries. The young offensive linemen (three of the Eagles’ five starters along the line were making their first or second career starts) will settle in. The record won’t be as egregious.
But it’s hard to figure out what the head coach is bringing to the team. It’s certainly something -- Nick Sirianni’s Eagles have gone to two Super Bowls and won one, and they could not have done so with an anchor at head coach.
But many teams employ a formidable playcaller at head coach -- that isn’t Sirianni. Some teams go for more of the CEO route and ask their head coach to manage staff and handle player personalities -- this has not been Sirianni’s strength as of late, either. His internal promotions at offensive coordinator have both gone poorly (Brian Johnson in 2023, Kevin Patullo in 2025), and his defense needed a CEO of its own (Vic Fangio) to recover after Jonathan Gannon left. Perhaps nobody could have successfully reconciled A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts last season, but Sirianni was the man tasked with keeping Brown happy enough to play for the Eagles, and he failed.
In the past, Sirianni has been a strong enough in-game decision-maker to feel positively about his Sunday contributions. This season, that steady hand at the wheel is notably absent. The Eagles lost Sunday’s game against the Jaguars almost exclusively because of poor situational management. Down 17-16, they had a first-and-10 with 25 seconds left in winning field goal range (the Jaguars’ 34-yard line). Jacksonville had only one timeout, and the Eagles had three downs to burn it. The last play of this game should have been an Eagles field goal attempt, no matter what.
Instead, the Eagles throw an incompletion on first-and-10 ... then get tackled out of bounds on second-and-10 to stop the clock. After a third-down tackle for loss, the Jaguars use their third timeout and force the Eagles to kick off to them with 0:08 on the clock. Sure, it’s unlikely that the Jaguars get a game-winning return ... but the chance still exists.
The Jaguars completed their clock management Hail Mary, as Ameer Abdullah returned the kick into field goal range and the Jaguars walked it off with a 57-yard boot through the goalposts from Cam Little. The Eagles elected to send the kickoff in bounds and allow for that potential return instead of booming a touchback and challenging the Jaguars to get from the 35 to midfield in eight seconds with no timeouts. Little has a big leg on him, of course -- but with no timeouts, the Eagles can play sideline defense and salt the game away.
Sirianni said after the game when asked about the touchback decision: “I didn’t make the right decision, and I lost us that game, and that’s what I said to our guys.” It echoes what he has said about the Eagles’ errant fourth-down decision-making over the past few games -- passing on go-worthy fourth downs only to attempt more difficult ones later. The buck stops with him.
He’s right, of course. And if the Eagles cannot hang the laurels of playcalling or coach development on Sirianni’s chest; if they can’t call him an elite mediator of disgruntled players; if they can’t expect him to maximize winning chances with fourth-down decisions or clock management ... what do they ask of him? What does he bring to a team in transition -- a team that’s wondering if it’s finally time to take its medicine and rebuild for a new era of contention?
I think ... Kyler Murray and the Vikings’ offence are rounding into form
I promised myself in the summer that I would not, under any conditions, rush to an early judgment on the Murray offense in Minnesota. He was entering a Kevin O’Connell system -- part of the larger Sean McVay cinematic universe -- in which he had no experience. He was coming off a foot injury that would likely impact his movement skills. Even with all the first-team reps in training camp -- which he didn’t get, given his perfunctory QB1 battle with J.J. McCarthy -- it would take time through the season to get the offense up to speed.
Now that we’re in October, we have even more reason for pause. Murray missed the first two games of the season with a concussion sustained early in Week 1 against the Packers. When he returned in Week 3 against the Buccaneers, he did so without star receiver Justin Jefferson, who was hurt early in that game. Running back Jordan Mason, presumably the primary ball carrier, has also been on injured reserve for all of Murray’s three complete games. In Sunday’s win against the Saints, Mason, WR2 Jordan Addison, TE1 T.J. Hockenson, TE2 Josh Oliver, LT Christian Darrisaw and LG Donovan Jackson were all absent. It would be beyond reasonable, after three bad Murray games, to wave away the early-season results as I long intended.
But Week 5 was not a bad Murray game. It was a totally solid day for the Vikings’ offense overall. And I would argue it was a sunny omen for games to come.
Against the Saints, Murray went 24-for-30 for 229 yards and a touchdown pass, and he also ran 10 times for 51 yards. The Vikings averaged 5.4 yards per play for a 42.6% success rate and a 13.2% explosive rate. Across the entire Sam Darnold-led 2024 season, the Vikings had 5.6 yards per play for a 43.7% success rate and 14.3% explosive rate. This would have been an average offensive day in that Darnold year.
The film is encouraging. The Vikings should have had a much fatter scoreboard if not for two fumbles in the red zone -- one of which was returned for a Saints touchdown. Most notable is Murray’s arm talent, which opened up a couple of sick throws to Jefferson specifically. Because Jefferson is so spectacular in contested situations, Murray can reliably throw to him instead of running around and improvising -- something he still does well but should do only in moderation.
The Vikings have their bye in Week 6 before drawing the Colts in Week 7, the Lions in Week 8 and the Bills in Week 9 -- all three are bottom-10 pass defenses by success rate. Murray has been oriented on high-percentage throws in this first stage of offensive development (his completion percentage jumped from 60% to 73% to 80% through three games), but the next stretch will be an exercise in pushing the ball a little more. The returns of Addison and Darrisaw in particular should help in that effort.
But don’t underrate the return of Mason. The Vikings ran the ball well on a bad Saints defensive front, gaining 153 total rushing yards, the fifth most in a Vikings game in the past three seasons. But they want to do so much more in the designed running game with Murray and in the power play-action game with Mason as a bruising back. Week 5 is done, and the Vikings’ offense is still nowhere near done testing what concoction of playcalls and personnel packages works best in this Murray era.
To that point: Development is not linear. The Vikings’ offense might not get better week over week. But it is getting healthier. The quarterback is buying into the offense and making additive plays with his athletic traits. This was always going to be a time-consuming process, but the forest is visible through the trees. Minnesota’s offense is catching up.
I think ... the Cowboys need to bench some veterans
This might come as a surprise: ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the 2-3 Cowboys, fresh off a “Thursday Night Football” loss to the Jalon Daniels Buccaneers, a 63% chance to win the NFC East. The Eagles, also 2-3, have a 20.9% shot. The 3-1-1 Giants, fresh off their tie with the Commanders, are at 11.4%.
In that the Giants have only a 1.5-game lead and have to spend the rest of the season without Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns, they’re a fair fade. By why the faith in the Cowboys, who have been nothing short of a defensive disaster through five weeks of the season? Well, getting a healthy and active Joey Porter Jr. should help; he missed Thursday’s game against Tampa Bay with an illness.
But the Cowboys are facing an addition-by-subtraction challenge on their mini bye week. New defensive coordinator Christian Parker has had plenty of missteps through his first five weeks as a playcaller, but when I watch the Dallas defense, I see greater concerns with individual play and effort than I do with structure. (To be clear, I see issues with both, though.)
Cornerback DaRon Bland, whom the Cowboys signed to a market-rate extension shortly after the Micah Parsons trade last offseason, has been one of the most successfully targeted cornerbacks in football. Opposing quarterbacks have a 127.4 passer rating when they throw at Bland, 14th highest among all CBs this season. Bland has surrendered 22.8 total EPA on his 27 targets faced; only Lions CB D.J. Reed has a worse number.
Bland used to play more slot corner but has exclusively been a boundary player for Parker in 2026. As the Cowboys moved rookie Caleb Downs out of the slot and to a true safety alignment, they’ve played Reddy Steward at slot corner instead. Steward has surrendered the highest passer rating of any corner who has seen at least eight targets this season (146.5), as quarterbacks are 11-for-12 for 150 yards and a score when targeting him.
I’m not convinced Bland can move back to the slot successfully. He seems noticeably less quick in 2026 than he was in 2025, when his season was ended early by a foot injury that required surgery. If anything, the entrance of Porter into the starting lineup should move Bland into a fight with Cobie Durant, Shavon Revel Jr. and UFL standout Ameer Speed (he has had some nice moments through five weeks) for the other starting boundary spot. Downs should return to the slot as safeties P.J. Locke and Jalen Thompson come back from injured reserve at some point this season.
On the defensive line, trade acquisition Rashan Gary has presented similar problems to those of Bland in the secondary. Gary has played 90 snaps of run defense this season and has somehow generated zero stuffs in that entire time. Consider that the next-closest edge rusher with zero stuffs is Vikings designated pass rusher Dallas Turner, who has 72 run defense snaps, 80% Gary’s volume of opportunities. Gary’s run stop rate of 7.8% -- the rate at which he generated positive EPA tackles against the run -- is well below league average for edge rushers and nestled among smaller pass rush specialists such as Andrew Van Ginkel, Aidan Hutchinson and Elijah Ponder.
On Thursday, the Buccaneers were happy to make Gary a point-of-attack player in the running game and found plenty of success running off the offensive right accordingly. As a pass rusher, Gary also lost contain on Daniels -- known for little else besides scrambling -- multiple times, allowing for easy chunk gains. That Gary is keeping snaps from rookie first-rounder Malachi Lawrence (or even fourth-round rookie LT Overton, who has been playing on the inside but can be a big end type) is hurting the Cowboys in both the short and long term.
These are the two most egregious weak points on a Cowboys defense suffering too many underwhelming performances from big-name additions -- but they’re not the only ones. Backup linebacker Dee Winters, signed as a veteran safety valve in an otherwise young linebackers room, has been a liability worth targeting in DeMarvion Overshown’s absence. Second-year edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku needs to shore up his tackling. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams has struggled in the new system and has vanished on too many clear pass-rush downs.
The players returning from injury -- Overshown, Locke, Thompson and Porter -- should improve a Cowboys defense that is not as hopeless as it has appeared through five weeks. But the accompanying adjustment must be taking snaps away from big-name, veteran contract players who simply cannot perform at the requisite level. It can be scary to play so many inexperienced players across three levels of a defense, but no option should be off limits for Parker as he looks for opportunities to steady the Cowboys’ defensive tailspin before things really get out of control.
I think ... we should see some Carson Beck in Arizona
Down 45-17 to the Patriots with six minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Raiders pulled their starters Sunday, including Cousins. That meant No. 1 pick Mendoza took his first NFL snaps in garbage time. He looked fine -- and more importantly, he got to feel some (relatively) live action in anticipation of his inevitable first career start somewhere down the road.
Down 45-14 to the Lions with five minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Cardinals kept their starters out there. This is not an unusual decision, though the risk of injury to a key player always stresses me out. (Packers defensive tackle Javon Hargrave was lost for the season with an Achilles tear late in a blowout win over the Bears on Sunday.) And even if the Cardinals had gone to their backups, Beck -- the first pick of the third round -- was the inactive emergency QB3, meaning he could enter the game only as the result of injury. Veteran Gardner Minshew II was QB2.
That has to change. Beck should be active on game day so he can get into contests like this blowout loss to the Lions or Week 2’s blowout loss to the Seahawks. Head coach Mike LaFleur said as much in his news conference Monday -- the Cardinals are going to look into dressing Beck on game days. Fourth-quarter garbage-time snaps won’t make or break a player’s developmental arc, but they will give him film to watch and objectives to address week over week. Any Beck snaps will allow him to learn the NFL rhythms of a starting quarterback piecemeal. If and when he starts a game this season, the process won’t feel as foreign or intimidating.
And Beck should see starts. Not because the offense is uniquely terrible; Arizona is 10th in success rate and 15th in EPA per play. He should see starts because the Cardinals are 1-4 and have not held an opponent to fewer than 31 points over their four-game losing streak. Nick Rallis, retained as the defensive coordinator by LaFleur, hasn’t unlocked a new edge to his unit now that Jonathan Gannon is no longer in the building influencing the defensive philosophy. Edge rusher Josh Sweat is a serious trade candidate, and the Cardinals have little star talent behind him (and safety Budda Baker) to improve defensively. The season, in a wicked tough NFC West, is lost, just as expected.
If continuing to field Jacoby Brissett was about anything, it would be to have a steady hand at quarterback to help develop younger players. But third-year wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has been traded to Houston, leaving the Cardinals with second-contract pass catchers in Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. Even rookie running back Jeremiyah Love is in a timeshare with Tyler Allgeier. The offense looks as Brissett offenses often do -- efficient and turnover-averse but riddled with sacks and wholly unexplosive. The Cardinals are dead last in explosive pass rate by an enormous margin.
There’s little left to discover in the Cardinals’ offense with Brissett at the helm. It’s unlikely that Beck, who was a short-area point guard with the Hurricanes in his final college season, has much to add. Third-round quarterbacks tend to be limited players. But the objective is less about Beck’s development and more about information. If Beck is anywhere near good enough to justify starting and developing in 2027 and beyond, the world opens up wide for the Cardinals’ potential top-five pick in the 2027 draft. If Beck is nowhere near that caliber, Arizona can instead move forward with the appropriate urgency to fill the quarterback position.
The 2026 Cardinals were meant to be built on the draft classes of 2023, 2024 and 2025, but those years are riddled with misses. Edge rusher BJ Ojulari (2023 second-rounder) is off the team, as is Harrison (2024 first-rounder). Running back Trey Benson (2024 third-rounder) was waived and unclaimed, thus reverting back to injured reserve. Edge rushers Darius Robinson (2024 first-rounder) and Jordan Burch (2025 third-rounder) are rotational players.
The future of the Cardinals is clearly not on the roster, and as such, the page must turn from stable veterans to volatile rookies, as Arizona’s gaze shifts to finding future stars for more serious contention in 2028 and 2029. It’s time to find out what the Cards have in Beck.
I think ... the Bears’ secondary is just as bad as the Lions’ unit
I’m sure you’ve heard about the Lions’ secondary. We saw the horrendous outing in primetime in Week 4 against the Panthers and Tetairoa McMillan. Detroit has veteran D.J. Reed leading all corners in passer rating allowed when targeted (minimum 60 coverage snaps) at a prime 146.4 ... remember, perfect passer rating is 158.3. This has all been well-covered.
Here’s what you don’t know: The Bears’ secondary is just as bad. Tyrique Stevenson Sr. is sixth in passer rating allowed among corners (140.7), while Jaylon Johnson is eighth (133.7). Both looked a little nicer analytically coming into the Week 5 game against the Packers, but holy smokes did Jordan Love, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden show the Bears a thing or two down the field. Love went 6-for-8 on throws at least 20 yards downfield for a whopping 258 passing yards and two touchdowns. The 258 passing yards mark is the second-most single-game yardage on downfield shots since 2016.
Here’s an isolation shot to Golden late in the third quarter on Johnson. The Bears are in true man coverage here, and the Packers run a man beater in which Golden bluffs the deep over route and climbs back to the far sideline. Johnson is unable to get any hands on Golden (compared with rookie Malik Muhammad II at the top of the screen) and accordingly can’t slow him down through the route. Johnson is left in Golden’s wake and unable to get back to the catch point in time.
This play stood out to me because the Packers went after Johnson on a similar route in last season’s playoffs. It was the first drive of the game, and it was a matchup Green Bay clearly wanted to attack. The Packers have gone after the Bears’ CB1 through multiple seasons now. That’s a problem!
But it isn’t just the corners. On an early deep touchdown to Watson, the Bears were in a pressure package with veteran safety Xavier Woods playing the deep half. It’s a two-man route combination on first-and-10, and Woods has one primary prerogative: cap the vertical route from Watson as Devin Bush lets him fly by.
Woods is caught flat-footed, thinking the pressure will force Love to throw the ball early to Golden. He’s hunting a PBU and a big hit. It’s understandable on the chalkboard but inexcusable in the context. Love is a notorious big-play hunter, and Watson is one of the league’s preeminent downfield threats. Know the situation and the opponent.
Even rookie safety Dillon Thieneman had his bad moments in this one; that’s the problem when you’re relying on first-year players to save a unit. They have high highs but also low lows. Here, Thieneman nicely plays Love on this third-and-22 and ends up beating the ball to the catch point ... but his lack of experience playing the catch point shows. Watson plucks a touchdown right off his head. This ball has to be broken up.
These are just the downfield throws. Love is the first truly top-tier passer the Bears have faced all season, and he brought a high heat they couldn’t handle. Not all passers are as downfield-minded or fearless of safeties as Love, but players such as Michael Penix Jr. (Week 6 opponent) and Drake Maye (Week 7 opponent) are both known for ripping downfield shots. The continued growth of Thieneman and Muhammad, the impending return of slot corner Kyler Gordon (practice window opened Oct. 1) and the eventual return of safety Coby Bryant are all reasons for long-term hope. But coordinator Dennis Allen wants to play man coverage (34.7% rate, fifth highest in the league), and the Bears currently have zero corners I truly trust in man-to-man defense.
I implored the Bears to trade for Joey Porter Jr. in this column last month. He’s a Cowboy now, and I’m not sure another corner of his caliber will reach the market. But this secondary (and larger defensive roster) makes it challenging -- if not impossible -- to stack the Bears up as a legitimate contender, even if Caleb Williams picks up where he left off on offense.
Five things I might think
I might think ... the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade won’t matter for either team. I’m a big believer in emotional relocation for disgruntled players, and I think Harrison can be better in Houston. Better enough to really tip the scales for that offense? No, I don’t see him becoming the second-leading target getter behind Nico Collins by January. And while the Cardinals are thin at receiver, Harrison wasn’t pulling enough coverage to warrant his low target rates in Arizona. This is a big-name, low-impact deal.
I might think ... the Jets are going to be good. The Jets won 17-12 in a sloppy, rainy game against the Browns, and it took a Cleveland special teams turnover to get it done. Still, I see the vision. They have some young players in the secondary who can hang, including outside cornerback Azareye’h Thomas, slot corner Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and safety Dane Belton. The defensive line is deep, and rookie edge rusher David Bailey is getting better week over week. When the offense gets running back Breece Hall and receiver Adonai Mitchell back from injury, the Jets might be good enough to knock on the wild-card door this season.
I might think ... Mike Evans -- not Brock Purdy -- is the 49ers’ MVP. Well, at least for this week. Evans was the only target whom Purdy could connect with reliably on Sunday against the Seahawks, and his physicality saved the 49ers in short-yardage situations and in the red zone -- two areas in which they struggled last season against this Seattle defense. I love when a good free agency plan comes together, and the 49ers pursued Evans for a better matchup versus this Seahawks defense without a supersized corner in Riq Woolen on the other side. Fruition!
I might think ... the Colts should play Anthony Richardson Sr. They won’t trade him, and Daniel Jones looks like his arm is weaker almost every single week. This offense could really use an infusion of playmaking from a talented runner at the quarterback position.
I might think ... the ball will never be secure again. We saw 52 fumbles in Week 5. Yes, 52! Reprehensible ball security across the board. It was only the third week in the past 10 seasons in which the ball was fumbled at least 50 times. If you think you’re seeing more Peanut Punches than you’ve seen in a while, you’re right!