We’ve reached the summer vacation portion of the 2026 NFL offseason. Teams have wrapped their OTAs and minicamps, and players, coaches and their families have dispersed to various beach resorts around the globe. They’ll all be back for training camps in about a month, but for now, things are quiet around the league. And if it weren’t for Brendan Sorsby and the supplemental draft, it would frankly be tough to find stuff to discuss.
But we can always step back and look at the big picture. A lot has happened this offseason, and as we look ahead to training camp and the season beyond, it’s fair to wonder what effect it all will have on the race to Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles. Which offseason news or developments were mere noise, and which ones were really worth paying attention to closely?
In other words: To what, specifically, have we been overreacting? Let’s size up the legitimacy of five possible overreactions from this offseason.
It’s now or never for this version of Joe Burrow and the Bengals
Last season was the third year in a row that the Bengals missed the playoffs. It was also their first losing season since 2020, which was Burrow’s injury-shortened rookie year. And over the three-year stretch from 2023 to 2025, Cincinnati ranked 10th in the NFL in offensive EPA and 29th in defensive EPA. The problem seems clear.
Consider that the Bengals ranked in the top 10 in defensive EPA in 2021 (when they went to the Super Bowl) and 2022 (when they went back to the AFC Championship Game and lost). When Burrow has been able to stay healthy, Cincinnati has had one of the best offenses in the NFL. But the defense has fallen off so badly since those two glory years that the team has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments.
The Bengals return all 11 starters from last season’s offense but have made major changes on defense. They traded the 10th pick in the draft to the Giants for star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II. They signed edge rusher Boye Mafe from the Seahawks and safety Bryan Cook from the Chiefs in free agency. They drafted edge rusher Cashius Howell from Texas A&M in the second round and cornerback Tacario Davis from Washington in the third.
So, ahead of Al Golden’s second year as their defensive coordinator, the Bengals attacked multiple areas of weakness on the defensive side of the ball in the hopes of once again fielding the type of unit that helped elevate Burrow’s offense to championship-caliber. The Bengals are the only team in the AFC North that did not change head coaches this offseason, and their schedule projects as one of the three or four easiest in the league.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
A lot of this is on Burrow, who needs to stay healthy to give the Bengals the best possible chance. But if he does, and if the defense still lets them down, leading to another missed playoffs, Zac Taylor’s eighth season as their head coach could very well turn out to be his last.
Cincinnati has spent a ton of money to keep the offense together the way Burrow wants it, and the front office has stretched its resources this offseason in uncharacteristic ways to try to fix the defense. With all of the other three teams in the AFC North in transition phases under new head coaches, the opportunity is there for the Bengals to return to the top of the division and compete for an AFC championship. If they do not, you’re going to once again hear people on the outside wonder how long Burrow will want to be there. And next offseason could bring more significant roster and staff changes than we’ve seen in Cincinnati in a while.
Fernando Mendoza won’t start for the Raiders before November
The Raiders, who changed head coaches yet again this offseason, used the first pick in the draft on Mendoza. They hope and believe he’ll be their quarterback of the future -- a true franchise changer. But they also signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins because they don’t want to start Mendoza right away.
Cousins has some familiarity with new Raiders coach Klint Kubiak from their time working together in Minnesota, and he should be able to operate the offense while Mendoza learns behind him and works on the parts of his game that aren’t yet NFL-ready. Because he was the No. 1 pick, everyone is asking when the Raiders will decide it’s OK to put Mendoza into a game. The answer might not rest with him or Cousins; it might come down to how quickly the rest of the roster comes together.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Teams say this all the time, but it hardly ever works. It seems like every year at least one team insists it won’t start its first-round quarterback but ends up having to because of a poor record. Jaxson Dart with the Giants is just the most recent example.
The Raiders do not have a strong roster. They have significant issues to address with their wide receiver corps, offensive line and several positions on defense. They don’t want to play Mendoza yet not because they don’t think he’s ready, but because they don’t think they’re ready for him. They want the group around Mendoza to put him in the best possible position to succeed, and they recognize they might need at least one more offseason in order to produce that. If they stay true to their word, even if Cousins were to get injured early in the season, they’d probably rather play Aidan O’Connell over Mendoza.
Again, this approach happens all the time and rarely works out the way the team foresees. But this Raiders staff believes it has some runway to build things out the right way, and part of that plan is to wait on Mendoza until the team can support him better than it can right now.
J.J. McCarthy has started his last game for the Vikings
The 10th pick in the 2024 draft missed all of his rookie season with a knee injury, then was installed as the starter at the beginning of 2025 after Sam Darnold left in free agency to pursue Super Bowl glory with the Seahawks. It did not go well.
McCarthy played in just 10 games last season due to other injuries and overall ineffectiveness. And this offseason, the team not only brought back veteran Carson Wentz but also signed Kyler Murray after the Cardinals released him. Wentz is working his way back from an injury, so the battle shapes up as Murray vs. McCarthy -- and the investment Minnesota made in McCarthy in the 2024 draft isn’t going to help him if he doesn’t outperform Murray in training camp.
The Kevin O’Connell-run Vikings have been competitive at a high level any time they’ve had reliable quarterback play, so the mission is to play the guy who provides that. Murray has had more success in the NFL than McCarthy, so from the outside, most people view him as the favorite to win the job and wonder if that would already be the end for McCarthy in Minnesota.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
McCarthy could prove to be the better option in camp. If that happens, the players on the roster will see that and buy into the decision. You could make the case that the best outcome for the Vikings is for McCarthy to win the job and become the player they thought he could be when they moved up to draft him. But even if that doesn’t happen in camp, Murray is far from a perfect solution, which is why the Cardinals are paying him $36 million this year to play for someone else.
If McCarthy reacts to being thrust into a competition the way the Vikings hope he does, he could end up starting games for them this season. He’s also under contract for 2026, whereas Murray is not (and Murray’s contract includes a no-franchise tag provision). Sure, it’s possible Murray thrives in O’Connell’s offense while McCarthy crumbles. But either outcome is far from a sure thing. There’s a long way to go before the start of the 2026 season, let alone the end of it. And on some level at least, the Vikings hope there’s still a long way to go in McCarthy’s NFL story.
George Pickens will play for the Cowboys in 2026 ... but not 2027
Pickens’ presence and comments at the Cowboys’ mandatory minicamp made it clear he’s fine with playing this season on the $27.3 million franchise tag. Barring a complete reversal by the Cowboys, he won’t have a long-term extension by the July 15 deadline for teams to extend franchise players.
Spinning this forward, if the one-year carrot is enough to bring the best out of Pickens the way it did in 2025 -- when he had 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns on 93 catches -- then it’s easy to see him pricing himself out of Dallas next year with a huge contract from some other team. If he has a bad year, it’s easy to see the Cowboys moving on to another option, too.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
First of all, the Cowboys could absolutely franchise Pickens again in 2027. It would cost them $32.8 million, but there are already six NFL wide receivers averaging more than that per year, and there likely will be more by next March. The fact that CeeDee Lamb, Pickens’ Dallas teammate, is one of those six is part of the issue. The Cowboys might not feel they can afford to pay two receivers top-of-market money and still manage their salary cap.
But the fact is, there’s no way to know how this season will go or how the Cowboys will feel about it when it’s over. Is there a world in which Lamb, who has missed games due to injury each of the past two years and has just $7 million in guarantees on his contract beyond 2026, is the one they move on from, allowing them to keep Pickens? Sure. I’m not saying that’s the way I’d predict this to go, but it’s not out of the question, right?
Pickens showed the Cowboys a lot last season after they traded a third-round pick to get him in the offseason. They’ve made it clear they’d like to see more before making any long-term decisions about him. He now has the opportunity to give them a difficult decision next offseason if he does everything they’re asking him to do.
This is a make-or-break year for C.J. Stroud in Houston
In 2023, Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year and finished eighth in MVP voting. He has led the Texans to the second round of the playoffs in each of his three seasons as their quarterback. The team has struggled to provide him with consistent protection or an effective running game, and his receivers haven’t been able to stay healthy. But those are going to start to sound like excuses if Stroud can’t reverse the trend his performance has been on since his rookie season ended.
His yardage and touchdown totals have dropped each year since 2023. Part of the reason that happened in 2025 is that he missed three games, but that isn’t exactly a point in his favor, either. Stroud struggled in Houston’s first-round playoff victory in Pittsburgh in January and was absolutely abysmal in a second-round loss to New England. He’s playing with an elite defense and on a team that feels like a solid bet to make the playoffs every year. At some point, he’s going to have to get over the hump and either get back to performing the way he did as a rookie or elevate the team beyond the second round of the playoffs.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
There are few, if any, teams that are as aggressive and early with their veteran contract extensions as the Texans. Stroud’s 2023 draftmate, Will Anderson Jr, knows this firsthand, having secured a mammoth extension from Houston this offseason. But Stroud does not have an extension, and this means something.
Yes, the Texans picked up his fifth-year option for 2027 ... it would have been silly not to do so. They have to pay him only $31.6 million in total over the next two years. But the hesitancy by this team in particular to extend Stroud when he first became eligible for an extension speaks volumes. If Stroud has a disappointing season in 2026, it’s not ridiculous to wonder if the Texans will be looking into other options next spring.
The team can say anything it wants about believing in Stroud and viewing him as its QB of the future. Absent an extension, though, that’s just talk. It’s clear the Texans want to see more before committing, and that puts Stroud under as much pressure this year as just about any quarterback in the NFL.
