When Deshaun Watson takes the field as the Cleveland Browns' starting quarterback during Sunday's Week 1 game (1 p.m. ET, CBS) at the Jacksonville Jaguars, it will likely mark the beginning of his final opportunity to salvage his tenure in Cleveland -- and possibly his NFL career.
Whether Watson can do so hinges on him recapturing a semblance of his Pro Bowl form with the Houston Texans, a player for which the Browns were willing to trade three first-round picks and give a fully guaranteed $230 million contract in March 2022 after more than two dozen women accused him of sexual assault and inappropriate conduct during massage sessions.
Suspension- and injury-related layoffs have been the story of Watson's time in Cleveland. His latest physical setback: two Achilles surgeries that cost him all of the 2025 season and 22 months between live game action. Watson acknowledged that, at the age of 30 and after multiple significant injuries, his style of play might not resemble that of his peak dual-threat capabilities in Houston.
However, his accuracy on downfield passing and willingness to push the ball -- once a strength -- is an area of his game that has declined in recent years and will need to improve if he wants to keep his job as QB1.
When Watson was named to three consecutive Pro Bowls as a member of the Texans, he wasn't just one of the league's premier mobile quarterbacks but a pinpoint passer able to stretch the field.
In 2018, Watson ranked third among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in completion rate (58.8%) on downfield passes (attempts that traveled at least 10 air yards), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Watson led the NFL in passing yards in 2020, and he only trailed then-Saints QB Drew Brees in completion rate on downfield pass attempts at 59.9%. Even in Watson's six-game run in his first year in Cleveland after sitting out the 2021 season and serving an 11-game suspension, he completed 53.1% of his downfield passes, which would have ranked sixth.
That mark has declined in recent years. In 2023, Watson completed 39.3% of his downfield attempts, which would have ranked as the worst rate in the league if he qualified. His 33.3% off-target rate on such passes only trailed Panthers QB Bryce Young for the worst in the league. Watson's stat worsened in 2024, as he completed a career-low 37.9% of downfield attempts before his Achilles tear sidelined for the final 10 games of the season.
Compounding Watson's struggles is an aversion to attempting to push the ball downfield. Watson's average depth of target has dropped significantly, from 9 yards in his final Pro Bowl season in 2020 to a career-low 7.1 in his most recent season in 2024, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Watson threw downfield on a career-low 26.9% of his passes in 2024, his second career season with a rate below 30%, including his 28.8% mark in his 2022 debut season with the Browns.
The struggles coincide with a right, throwing shoulder injury that Watson originally sustained against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3 of the 2023 season. He ultimately underwent season-ending surgery for a fractured glenoid after a Week 10 road win against the Baltimore Ravens.
Watson returned for the start of the 2024 season but never looked comfortable before his season-ending Achilles injury in October 2024.
In his first news conference since rupturing his Achilles, he said in June this was the first time he felt 100% healthy since initially injuring his shoulder against the Titans.
Despite confidence in his physical state, Watson's passing was inconsistent in training camp, and he struggled to push the ball downfield in the preseason. In two preseason games, he was 1 of 6 for 20 yards and an interception on downfield passes; such attempts made up just 22.2% of his passes in the preseason.
"That's something I've always been pretty good at, especially in the past," Watson said Aug. 19. "But those looks and opportunities got to come up. Whatever coach is calling, I try to execute as much as possible, keep the chains moving. Especially early on, it's hard to really start taking shots when the defense is sitting back on that. Especially with Chicago [first preseason game], they were playing a lot of two-wide shells, so a lot of underneath things were right there. But that's something I definitely want to continue to work on, and when those opportunities come, take advantage of it."
Explosive plays are a priority in first-year head coach Todd Monken's offense. In a 2023 presentation at The Harbaugh Academy, Monken listed explosive plays as one of six figures that best explain how teams win games.
After Watson was named the Browns' starting quarterback on Aug. 24 despite struggles in the second preseason game, questions surfaced on how much leeway he would have as QB1. If he's unable to generate the explosive plays Monken desires, Watson's backup, Shedeur Sanders, could provide a more aggressive option.
Though Sanders struggled as a rookie in 2025, his downfield passing -- and willingness to do so -- have been one of his greatest assets. During his seven starts last season, Sanders completed 15 passes on downfield attempts, tied for 19th most among quarterbacks during that span; his 58 downfield attempts were 17th most. Sanders was even better in this year's preseason, completing 5 of 8 of his downfield attempts for 106 yards with a touchdown and an interception (36.4% of his attempts were downfield passes).
Adherence to one of Monken's core tenets could define Watson's 2026 season. Watson's first test comes against a Jaguars defense that allowed a 42.8% completion percentage on downfield throws last season, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL.
"Everyone's chasing explosives and trying to not to turn it over," Monken said last week. "And that's what you're trying to do. What's the defense trying to do? Turn you over and not allow explosives. That's really the big chess match, is that. The ways that you win.
"Obviously having explosive players helps that. Being able to scheme it up against certain looks and then being able to execute because your protection has to hold up when you get those opportunities. I'm confident in Deshaun and our ability to push the ball down the field, otherwise we wouldn't be starting him."
