Part of making preseason predictions is seeing how those forecasts actually fare. It’s easy to predict something, but we also need to check on our predictions and hold ourselves accountable.
Before Week 1, I made one bold prediction for every NFL team as part of our lookahead to the 2026 season. These were big swings -- things I thought could happen but would be upsets if they did. And five weeks into the season, we’ve learned a lot.
That makes this a great time to dive back into those preview predictions and find out how things are going. Which ones are on track? Which might still happen? And which were so far off that we might as well scrap them for a completely new one? In some cases, five weeks means everything has changed. In others, not so much.
Let’s take a look and see where we stand for all 32 teams.
On target
Buffalo Bills
Original prediction: Wide receiver Keon Coleman will record 750 or more receiving yards and at least five touchdowns -- both career highs.
Why it’s on target: Coleman had been on a bit of a production tear on plays when DJ Moore was off the field until Monday night, when he managed only 7 receiving yards in a game that Moore missed. Still, Coleman’s 224 receiving yards so far put him on pace for 761 yards over a full season. If Moore -- who did not play Monday due to a shoulder injury -- misses more time, that will help Coleman’s cause. Not playing the Rams every week should, too.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Original prediction: Cornerback Montaric Brown will record a worse-than-average yards allowed per coverage snap (1.1 per NFL Next Gen Stats).
Why it’s on target: Considering Brown is at 3.8 yards allowed per coverage snap, we’re well on our way. The idea for this prediction was that Brown’s strong 2025 campaign was fueled by on-ball results that tend not to be stable from year to year and that he would regress in 2026. So far, that looks right. Brown has missed all but six snaps in the past two games due to a hamstring injury.
New York Giants
Original prediction: Tight end Isaiah Likely will lead the team in receptions.
Why it’s on target: Likely currently leads the Giants in receptions, with 33 catches to Malik Nabers’ 29. As Nabers continues to recover from the ACL injury he suffered last season, he might accrue more volume. But Likely is ahead right now and has proved to be a key part of this new Giants offense.
Tennessee Titans
Original prediction: Cornerback Alontae Taylor will allow 1.4 yards per coverage snap or worse, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Why it’s on target: Taylor is right on target at 1.4. Should that continue, this would be disappointing for the Titans after they signed Taylor in free agency following a 1.0 yards-per-coverage-snap season in 2025. But Taylor was at 1.6 in 2023 and 2024, which is a big reason I made this prediction. For context, the average for an outside cornerback is 1.1.
Still a chance ...
Arizona Cardinals
Original prediction: The Cardinals will go 1-16.
Why there’s still a chance: I don’t think this will hit anymore, especially since the Cardinals won their opener. But I won’t quite throw this out yet because Arizona’s remaining schedule is an absolute gauntlet. There could be winnable games against the Commanders, Jets and Saints down the road, but if the Cardinals can’t win any of those, I could get the backdoor cover.
Atlanta Falcons
Original prediction: Safety Xavier Watts will be a first- or second-team All-Pro.
Why there’s still a chance: Watts has one interception, one forced fumble and a half-sack as part of a Falcons defense that has been better than expected. He has allowed 0.8 yards per coverage snap -- higher than average for a safety, though I don’t put a lot of stock in that number for safeties considering the variety and complexity of assignments at that position. This is a long shot, but you never know -- if Watts goes on an interception run, anything could happen.
Baltimore Ravens
Original prediction: The Ravens’ defense will rank in the top four in EPA per play.
Why there’s still a chance: Baltimore ranks 17th through five games. That’s not ideal for making the top four, but it doesn’t put the Ravens out of the running just yet, as we’ve seen their defenses turn it around in the second half of the season in recent years. Considering the talent the Ravens have and that they are playing under a new coach with a defensive background in Jesse Minter, I think it’s at least feasible. Trey Hendrickson, who ranks sixth in pass rush win rate at edge, has missed the past two games due to a broken finger that required surgery. If Baltimore can get him back, that should help.
Carolina Panthers
Original prediction: The Panthers will finish last in the NFC South.
Why there’s still a chance: Considering how well Carolina’s offense has played, I sincerely doubt that I will be correct on this. But this is the NFC South, and you just never know. The Panthers are only 1.5 games out of last place, and I have a strong opinion of cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, so their absences could really sting.
Cincinnati Bengals
Original prediction: Running back Chase Brown will record at least 15 total touchdowns.
Why there’s still a chance: With only one score thus far, this prediction is off to a pretty rough start. But a big part of why I backed Brown was the Bengals having the easiest schedule in the NFL. The beginning of that schedule wasn’t easy, and it gets lighter from here, so there should be plenty more touchdowns to come.
Cleveland Browns
Original prediction: Quarterback Taylen Green will start at least four games.
Why there’s still a chance: The odds have dropped. I had figured the Browns would already be on to Shedeur Sanders by this point. Even though Deshaun Watson hasn’t been quite as bad as expected, I still think that the Browns will make the move to Sanders relatively soon and that an end-of-year stint for Green remains in play.
Dallas Cowboys
Original prediction: Kicker Brandon Aubrey will record the most field goals over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Why there’s still a chance: Aubrey is off to a slower start than I would have guessed, with 1.3 field goals made over expectation. That ranks 13th, and he has missed a PAT, too. But there’s still plenty of time for him to move to the top.
Denver Broncos
Original prediction: Cornerback Riley Moss will command a $17 million-per-year contract after this season, either with the Broncos or someone else.
Why there’s still a chance: Moss missed Week 5 with a rib injury, but he has allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap (average) this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He picked off Trevor Lawrence in Denver’s Week 2 win over the Jaguars but was also burned badly by Konata Mumpfield on a double move for a 48-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Rams in Week 3. I still feel good about this one, though.
Detroit Lions
Original prediction: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson will win Defensive Player of the Year.
Why there’s still a chance: Four sacks and a 66th percentile pass rush win rate at edge isn’t a bad start, but he’s going to have to pick it up to fulfill this prediction. He has the talent level to do it, but the fact that the rest of the Lions’ defense is looking so weak is going to hurt Hutchinson’s sack total, which in turn will hurt his DPOY chances.
Green Bay Packers
Original prediction: Quarterback Jordan Love will finish in the top three in MVP voting.
Why there’s still a chance: I was prepared to throw this one out ... until Week 5, when Love posted a 94 QBR in the Packers’ 31-7 dismantling of the Bears. It’s still a long shot given his slow start, but Love has battled through Green Bay’s disastrous pass protection. And those first four weeks could have gone a lot worse considering the lack of a running game and how much duress Love was under. The Packers are more pass-heavy this season, too, so I’ll hold out hope.
Houston Texans
Original prediction: Wide receiver Nico Collins will record at least 1,500 receiving yards.
Why there’s still a chance: Even though he missed two games, Collins is not far off the pace. He has 249 receiving yards over three games, which puts him on pace for 1,245 receiving yards over 15 games, which is how many he’d play if he doesn’t miss any more time. There’s an outside shot. But Sunday’s acquisition of Marvin Harrison Jr. probably doesn’t help the odds.
Indianapolis Colts
Original prediction: Either Sauce Gardner or Charvarius Ward will be a first-team All-Pro cornerback.
Why there’s still a chance: Ward has put up solid numbers to start the season, allowing 0.8 yards per coverage snap (better than the 1.1 average for an outside corner) and minus-4.7 EPA when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Gardner hasn’t fared nearly as well, but it’s too early to count this one out.
Las Vegas Raiders
Original prediction: Tight end Brock Bowers will win Offensive Player of the Year.
Why there’s still a chance: Missing the first two games of the season will hurt Bowers’ case, but he has been pretty amazing since hitting the field: 24 receptions for 312 receiving yards and three touchdowns. That pace will put him right in the mix for the award.
Los Angeles Rams
Original prediction: Tight end Terrance Ferguson will catch eight touchdown passes.
Why there’s still a chance: On one hand, this seems like a long shot since Ferguson is on IR with an ankle injury. But the Ferguson bull case thesis essentially hit when he was on the field. With Puka Nacua out in Week 2, Ferguson got nine targets and caught six passes, including one for a touchdown. The preseason question was whether Ferguson could become the Rams’ third receiving option -- and the No. 2 guy if either Nacua or Davante Adams was out. If Ferguson is healthy, it seems like the answer is yes. That keeps this prediction alive.
New England Patriots
Original prediction: The Patriots will trade for an edge rusher before the trade deadline.
Why there’s still a chance: Even though Harold Landry III hasn’t played yet this season, the Patriots are in better shape at edge rusher than I thought before the season thanks to the emergence of Elijah Ponder, who has 4.5 sacks and is in the 49th percentile in pass rush win rate at edge. Still, New England could absolutely want to upgrade at the deadline.
New Orleans Saints
Original prediction: Jordyn Tyson will be a top-15 wide receiver in terms of fantasy points per game.
Why there’s still a chance: Tyson has yet to play due to the hamstring injury we knew would sideline him for the first part of the season when I made this prediction. So ... we still have a chance since this is about rate, not totals.
New York Jets
Original prediction: The Jets will sign defensive tackle Jowon Briggs to an extension before the end of the season.
Why there’s still a chance: Briggs is part of a Jets defensive tackle rotation that includes Harrison Phillips, T’Vondre Sweat and Darrell Jackson Jr. Briggs has two sacks this season and an average pass rush win rate for a starting interior lineman, but his run stop win rate has taken a big step back, dropping from 85th percentile in 2025 to 12th percentile this season. It’s that figure which could give New York pause.
Philadelphia Eagles
Original prediction: Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard will record at least 0.8 sacks per game.
Why there’s still a chance: We’re just getting started. Greenard began his season in Week 3, played two games, then was inactive with an ankle injury in Week 5. He has yet to record a sack, but the Eagles have been easing him into the lineup. Assuming Greenard gets healthy and the Eagles ramp him up to a full workload, he’ll have a shot -- albeit a smaller one than before the season began.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Original prediction: Tight end Darnell Washington will score five or more touchdowns.
Why there’s still a chance: Washington has one touchdown thus far, but we have a real shot here considering how enticing he can be in the red zone as a 6-foot-7, 264-pound target. His route rate has ticked up a little compared to last season, too.
San Francisco 49ers
Original prediction: Rookie running back Kaelon Black will record at least 650 rushing yards as the 49ers -- for real this time -- take it easy on Christian McCaffrey’s workload.
Why there’s still a chance: The 49ers really are backing off McCaffrey’s carry share. Last season, he rushed the ball on 71% of San Francisco’s designed rush attempts. That number is down to 52% this season. And Black is the clear No. 2, with 136 rushing yards thus far. If McCaffrey misses any time, Black should be a lock to hit this prediction. And there’s a chance it happens even if McCaffrey stays healthy.
Throw it out, start over
Chicago Bears
Original prediction: The Bears will lead the league in team open score. It’s a metric the team was middle-of-the-road in a year ago.
Why we’re throwing it out: Entering Week 5, the Bears ranked 19th in team open score.
New bold prediction: Offensive tackle Darnell Wright will finish in the top five in Protector of the Year voting. Wright currently has pass block and run block win rates in the 79th and 52nd percentiles at tackle, respectively, so he has work to do. But getting himself onto Protector of the Year ballots is possible, especially if the Bears’ offense takes off again once Caleb Williams gets back on the field.
Kansas City Chiefs
Original prediction: Wide receiver Rashee Rice will stay healthy and collect 1,300 receiving yards.
Why we’re throwing it out: A hamstring injury forced Rice out of the Chiefs’ Week 4 win over the Raiders before he had a catch. It’s possible he won’t miss any more time since the Chiefs’ bye was in Week 5, but with only 190 receiving yards so far, Rice is well behind the necessary pace to get to 1,300 yards.
New bold prediction: Rice will reach 1,100 receiving yards. Same bet, just a lower bar that would still be a career high by a decent margin. Rice recorded more than 80 receiving yards in two of the three games he played before the hamstring injury, and Kansas City ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation despite having a very strong run game. The Chiefs will still be a pass-heavy offense, which should provide Rice plenty of opportunity to hit this number.
Los Angeles Chargers
Original prediction: Offensive tackle Joe Alt will win Protector of the Year.
Why we’re throwing it out: He hasn’t been nearly good enough. Alt has recorded pass block and run block win rates in the 67th and 38th percentiles at tackle, respectively. But more important, he leads the league in penalties with six. He missed the Chargers’ Week 5 loss to the Broncos with a neck injury, too.
New bold prediction: Cornerback Tarheeb Still will deserve to make the Pro Bowl but won’t make the original team. Instead, he’ll earn a spot on ESPN’s snubs list. Still is off to a nice start to the season, allowing 0.8 yards per coverage snap and a minus-8% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He won’t get the recognition because he’s not a huge name and plays for the disappointing Chargers, but I think his strong season will continue.
Miami Dolphins
Original prediction: Quarterback Malik Willis will finish in the top 12 in QBR.
Why we’re throwing it out: Willis currently ranks 24th. He has had his moments, and I’m not giving up on him having long-term success with the Dolphins. But I don’t think top 12 is realistic for this season.
New bold prediction: Wide receiver Chris Bell will record at least 700 receiving yards. It’s remarkable that he’s already playing considering he tore an ACL in November. He has only 92 receiving yards thus far but has 234 incomplete air yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats, 14th most in the NFL. I expect he’ll convert some of those air yards into actual yards at a higher rate going forward.
Minnesota Vikings
Original prediction: Quarterback Kyler Murray will finish in the top 12 in QBR.
Why we’re throwing it out: Entering Week 5, Murray was last in QBR. After the Vikings’ Week 5 win over the Saints, he has moved all the way up to ... 27th. Even though I’m hopeful Murray will improve as the season goes on, I don’t think he’ll be able to get to the top 12.
New bold prediction: Linebacker Blake Cashman will record at least nine sacks. This would be a heck of a number for an off-ball linebacker, but Cashman rushes the passer a ton in Brian Flores’ scheme (32% of dropbacks) and already has 2.5 sacks.
Seattle Seahawks
Original prediction: Jadarian Price will finish the season as a top-eight running back in terms of fantasy points.
Why we’re throwing it out: Price is on injured reserve with a chest injury, which knocks this prediction out of contention. Even when he was healthy, Price was a disappointment fantasywise and had fumbling issues.
New bold prediction: Edge rusher Derick Hall will record double-digit sacks for the first time in his career. Hall has two sacks this season along with a 71st percentile pass rush win rate at edge. Hall has recorded a pass rush win rate that high before without getting 10 sacks, but sacks can be somewhat random. If he’s winning his reps, that increases his chances at sacks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original prediction: Wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. will record at least 1,000 receiving yards.
Why we’re throwing it out: Godwin has a mere 179 receiving yards over his first five games. I figured that Emeka Egbuka might be limited by the toe injury that was affecting him in the preseason, thus giving a ton of early volume to Godwin. Even though Egbuka has also disappointed, it doesn’t seem like the injury is slowing him down or funneling passes to Godwin.
New bold prediction: Rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter will make the Pro Bowl. Trotter currently leads all qualifying players in run stop win rate and has recorded a tackle on 18.1% of his defensive snaps, fifth highest in the NFL.
Washington Commanders
Original prediction: Nick Cross will lead all safeties in tackles.
Why we’re throwing it out: Cross has only 11 tackles so far this season, trailing far behind the league leader among safeties, the Ravens’ Kyle Hamilton (39).
New bold prediction: Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt will finish the season with positive rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It’s bold because Croskey-Merritt is currently at minus-30 for the season. But he just put up plus-40 rush yards over expected in Washington’s Week 5 tie with the Giants. I’m buying that he’ll continue that positive trend.