INDIANAPOLIS -- The Indianapolis Colts had been eyeing Jonathan Taylor closely for months before the 2020 draft.
The running back was well-regarded among scouts after his prolific career at Wisconsin, where he registered back-to-back 2,000-yard rushing seasons in 2018 and 2019. But at a time when running backs had been treated dismissively by the NFL, how would he be viewed in the draft?
For the Colts, that answer was clear.
Taylor was among their top targets. So, when the Colts saw Taylor sliding in the second round, they pounced. At the time, owner Jim Irsay implored general manager Chris Ballard to trade up for the player he’d been talking about endlessly in draft meetings.
Just like that, the Colts made Taylor the No. 41 pick.
Now, years later, the Colts are contemplating a much different sort of decision about Taylor. The organization is weighing offers to trade one of the best players in franchise history.
Taylor has run into the Indianapolis record books with a franchise-record 77 rushing touchdowns. Only Baltimore’s Derrick Henry has more explosive runs (10-plus yards) since Taylor entered the league. Every indicator says Taylor is a game-changing player. But is it time the Colts consider a deal that would result in Taylor changing teams before the Nov. 10 trade deadline?
An honest assessment of the situation strongly suggests the time is now.
We do not know who will be calling the shots for the Colts next season or who will be coaching the team. Ballard has already been fired and coach Shane Steichen could be next.
But there is no mystery about ownership’s position on the direction this team is headed. This is an obvious rebuild.
Taylor might have been somewhat oblivious to this when, during an interview with local reporters Thursday, he seemed surprised at the line of questioning.
“You think we’re rebuilding?” he asked.
All Taylor had to do was look at how the team’s decisions have been trending. The Colts have in the past nine months parted ways with key players Zaire Franklin, Michael Pittman Jr., Kenny Moore II, Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner. They had kept a large core of players together for years, hoping to see the group take a step toward competing for something meaningful.
It never happened.
The moves of the past week -- the trades of Nelson and Buckner -- are potentially a preview of what is to come. The Colts were taking one more shot with the remaining cast, pairing them with Alec Pierce and quarterback Daniel Jones, who were re-signed during the offseason. Now, Pierce is on injured reserve, Jones’ starting job is jeopardy and the Colts are 2-6.
But there’s more. The Colts are fielding one of their worst defenses in years. The unit is ranked 30th in points allowed per game (27.8), yards per play (5.9) and yards per rush (4.9). Look for things to only get worse with the departure of Buckner, who looked revitalized after offseason neck surgery.
If this isn’t a rebuild, then what’s the alternative label?
If this winds up being a Miami Dolphins-style teardown, the Colts are looking at an uncompetitive season in 2027. That means, optimistically, 2028 is their target year to rebound. By that time, Taylor will be 29½ years old with a significant amount of wear and tear on his body.
Relatedly, there’s the reality that every rebuild requires one important component: draft picks.
The Colts’ decision to trade two first-round choices to the New York Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner last year continues to reverberate in Indy. And the team’s best remaining asset is Taylor. Already, the Colts have been offered a package that included a second-round pick and a later-round pick for Taylor, according to a source.
If Taylor could generate that kind of offer nearly two weeks before the trade deadline, is it preposterous to wonder if the Colts might possibly acquire a late-first round choice for a game-altering player? Maybe so, but they should do themselves a favor and find out for certain.
The picks the Colts landed for Nelson and Buckner, ranging from the third to fifth rounds, are helpful. But the Colts, who lack a long-term starting quarterback, have numerous holes to fill. It’s going to take a lot more than a few extra midround picks to pull that off.
There has been an internal shift in the past week at Colts headquarters. Team personnel and players have gone from scoffing at the idea of a Taylor trade to accepting the possibility. That includes Taylor, who last week finally seemed resigned to the fact that it might happen.
“At the end of the day, the business side is going to move with or without you, with or without your permission,” he said. He later added, “You know that the day comes for many players, whether you like it or not.”
The Colts’ unenviable situation might mean that Taylor’s day is near.