While every team kicks off with the same 0-0 record in the first week of the NFL season, each squad enters play with preconceived notions regarding the direction its season will go.
The Kansas City Chiefs play the Detroit Lions in the season opener on Thursday, Sept. 7, and expect loads of success this year as defending Super Bowl champions with league MVP Patrick Mahomes under centre.
You can watch the NFL season opener LIVE on TSN1, TSN.ca and the TSN App at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Thursday, Sept. 7.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Houston Texans finished last season with the second-worst record in the NFL and kickoff this campaign with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback leading the offence - ingredients that aren't typically conducive to immediate success.
Every season though, a number of teams take a big step forward and, as a result, a few teams have to take a big step back from their success a year ago.
In the same way the Los Angeles Rams went from Super Bowl champions in 2022 to a 5-12 record last year, or the Jacksonville Jaguars jumped from 4-13 in 2021 to 9-8 in 2022, here are teams expected to make a big change from last season - either for better or worse.
New York Jets
The New York Jets were an early surprise last season when they jumped out to a 7-4 record in a crowded AFC East, but ultimately lost their final six games to finish 7-10 and well outside a playoff spot.
The Jets' offence scored just four touchdowns and the team averaged 11 points per game in their six-game losing streak to end the year. The Jets finished 29th in the NFL in scoring offence for the season, averaging 17.4 points per game. Their defence surrendered 18.6 points per game in 2022, good for second-best in the league.
This obvious weakness led to some major off-season changes, most notably, the trade for future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers. They also added offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, running back Dalvin Cook and veteran wide receivers Randall Cobb, Mecole Hardman, and Allen Lazard.
Hackett spent last season as the head coach of the Denver Broncos, which was a disaster for all parties involved. But Hackett was also Rodgers' OC in Green Bay from 2019-21, where the team finished in the top 10 in scoring every season.
If the offence can be raised to roughly that level of production, the team should surge in the AFC rankings on the back of its strong defence.
Denver Broncos
Denver found themselves in this same spot last season. They completed a franchise-altering trade to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson, brought in up-and-coming head coach Hackett, and brought back a dominant defensive unit.
It all blew up on them. Wilson had the worst season of his career, setting new lows in completion percentage (60.5), touchdowns (16) and QB rating (84.4), and the team finished 5-12 and at the bottom of the AFC West.
The Broncos finished with the worst-scoring offence in the league, averaging a paltry 16.9 points per game.
In response, Denver brought in Super Bowl-winning head coach Sean Payton to right the ship, as well as star offensive linemen Mike McGlinchey from the San Francisco 49ers and Ben Powers from the Baltimore Ravens.
Payton's 15-year tenure with the New Orleans Saints featured a top-10 scoring offence 12 times, and he helped guide Drew Brees to a record-setting career.
Similar to the Jets, the Broncos just need to rejuvenate an offensive unit that was dead weight in 2022. The Denver defence finished 12th in the NFL in points allowed last year with 21.1. Removing a 51-14 meltdown against the Rams in Week 16, the defence allowed 19.3 points per game.
If the offence can perform to a level Payton is accustomed to coaching, the Broncos will compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.
Detroit Lions
It was a tale of two seasons for the Detroit Lions last year: they started 1-6, allowing 32.2 points per game and scoring just 24.3. They won eight of their final 10 contests, averaging 30.7 points per game and allowing just 23.4 per game.
The offence finished fifth in scoring, and the defence played well in the second half. Additionally, key acquisitions were made on both sides of the ball, including defensive backs C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, and Emmanuel Moseley, as well as first-round pick Jack Campbell, a linebacker who is drawing rave reviews in training camp and pre-season action.
Gardner-Johnson led the NFL with six interceptions last season for the Philadelphia Eagles, and Moseley started all 16 games he played when healthy for the San Francisco 49ers over the past two seasons.
Detroit's defence allowed 245.8 passing yards per game last season, good for third-worst in the NFL. They parted ways with starters DeShon Elliott, Mike Hughes, and Jeff Okudah in the secondary. How their replacements fare will be central to their success as a unit this season.
The Lions also added on the offensive side, bringing in running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (selected 12th overall in the draft), as well as rookie tight end Sam LaPorta.
Detroit finished just a game out of a playoff spot last season and their successful off-season has them primed to take a large step forward in the NFC North.
New York Giants
The New York Giants qualified for the playoffs with a 9-7-1 record under first-year head coach Brian Daboll last season, and even won a playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings.
They did all of this with a negative point differential on the season, scoring 365 points (15th in the NFL) and allowing 371 (good for 17th).
Their success last season was due largely to their 9-4-1 record in one-score games (games decided by eight points or fewer), and a repeat of that success is unlikely due to a number of factors.
New York lost two starters from the offensive line a season ago, guard Nick Gates and centre Jon Feliciano, and did not acquire replacements for either.
They also lost receivers Kenny Golladay and Richie James, though their big off-season acquisition, tight end Darren Waller, should influence the passing game in a positive way.
All told, a repeat of their success from last year seems like a risky proposition in 2023, and the Giants are unlikely to qualify for the playoffs again, even in the weaker NFC.
Minnesota Vikings
Similar to the Giants, the Minnesota Vikings finished with a 13-4 record last season despite a negative point differential.
They finished with an unbelievable 11-0 record in games decided by eight points or fewer, which can be attributed to various factors.
The Vikings play in the NFC North alongside two teams expected to improve this year - the Lions and the Chicago Bears - and may find it difficult to sustain success without similar results in close games.
Additionally, the Vikings did not have an encouraging off-season, losing veterans all over the roster: WR Adam Thielen, RB Cook, cornerback Patrick Peterson, linebacker Eric Kendricks and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson.
To alleviate these losses, the Vikings only added a few possible starters, including defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Dean Lowry (who combined for 14 sacks in 2021, but just one in 2022), as well as TE Josh Oliver.
Minnesota succeeded in large part due to their success in close games last year, and all signs are pointing to a major step back in this campaign.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills finished last season 13-3, and the offence was a no-show in a 27-10 defeat in the AFC Divisional Round against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Buffalo's offence averaged 27.7 points per game last season, while the defence allowed 19.1 – ranking third and fourth, respectively, in the NFL.
The issue chasing the Bills last season was injuries, and with another year on the belt for many important pieces on defence, the team likely needed to make more moves to get younger than it did.
Instead, Buffalo will be relying on a multitude of players on the wrong side of 30 to carry their defensive unit, including safeties Jordan Poyer (32) and Micah Hyde (33) as well as pass rushers Von Miller (34) and Leonard Floyd (31).
The defence suffered last season when Miller was injured after 11 games, and the lack of pressure generated on opposing QBs allowed Miami backup Skylar Thompson to score 31 points in the wild-card round before the Bengals and Joe Burrow put up 27.
On offence, the team struggled to find a star contributor alongside Stefon Diggs in 2022, and the only major acquisition in the off-season was the selection of TE Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the draft.
With the AFC East potentially shaping up to be the toughest division in the NFL this season, Bills fans should temper their expectations for another double-digit win season.
