It’s early, but the odds are already tilting in Canada’s favour to reach the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in the men’s program's history.
And after Qatar stunned Switzerland with a 1-1 draw Saturday, even winning Group B is a strong possibility, with multiple analytics models giving Canada the edge.
Canada faces Qatar on Thursday in its second match at Vancouver’s BC Place Stadium after drawing Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-1 in its tournament opener last Friday in Toronto, creating a four-way tie in the group.
"It’s wide open," Canada centre back Joel Waterman said. "We want to top the group.
"Big game on Thursday to beat Qatar and then we’ve got to try and beat Switzerland as well."
The Athletic, based on 100,000 simulations using a statistical forecast built on roster data, projects Canada at 87 per cent to reach the round of 32 and 43 per cent to top the group — 12 percentage points ahead of pre-tournament Group B favourite Switzerland.
Soccer analytics expert Michael Caley, author of the “Expecting Goals” newsletter, gives Canada a 53 per cent chance of finishing first and just a four per cent chance of exiting at the group stage.
The Canadian men earned their first-ever point at the global showcase against Bosnia-Herzegovina, having lost all six of their contests at the 1986 and 2022 tournaments combined.
The team’s odds of moving past the round robin increased at this year’s expanded tournament, with 32 of 48 nations advancing to the knockout stage.
Finishing top of the group would extend the co-host’s home-soil advantage.
The Group B winner is scheduled to face a third-place team from Groups E, F, G, I or J in a round-of-32 match in Vancouver on July 2. Whoever wins that match would then advance to the round of 16 at BC Place Stadium on July 7.
The nation that finishes second in Group B will face the runner-up from Group A — Mexico, South Africa, South Korea or Czechia — in Los Angeles on June 28. And if Canada finishes among the tournament’s top eight third-place teams, it would face either the Group E winner in Boston on June 29 or the Group D winner in Santa Clara, Calif., on July 1.
“We can look at it as if we're all on even points with two games left, as if it were the first game. It's the same goal differential," Canada right back Niko Sigur said. "We want to go and win, that's it. If we win, we put ourselves in a good position.
"Let's get these three points and then we'll go from there.”
Switzerland remains the betting favourite to win the group at most sportsbooks, with DraftKings listing the Swiss at 11-to-10 compared to Canada’s 8-to-5 odds. Bosnia-Herzegovina sits third at 9-to-2, while Qatar is priced as a 30-to-1 long-shot.
Switzerland sits 19th in the latest official FIFA rankings, followed by No. 30 Canada, No. 56 Qatar and No. 64 Bosnia-Herzegovina. The rankings, however, can be misleading: Bosnia toppled No. 12 Italy in qualifying to reach the World Cup.
A heavy favourite against Qatar
Qatar is a significant underdog to pull off a second consecutive upset, with a Canada win listed at 2-to-7 odds on most online gambling sites.
Switzerland held 70 per cent possession on Saturday and generated 26 shot attempts to Qatar’s six. But Qatar's last shot resulted in a stoppage-time equalizer.
It should still serve as a warning for Canada, which is expected to control most of the ball against a Qatari defence — and goalkeeper Mahmoud Abunada — that held off Switzerland. Canada has struggled to score in recent months, finding the back of the net just nine times in its past 10 games, but beat Qatar 2-0 in a September 2022 international friendly.
After Thursday’s match, Canada faces Switzerland on June 24 in what could be the Group B decider.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 15, 2026.
— With files from Gemma Karstens-Smith in Vancouver.
Daniel Rainbird, The Canadian Press
