The Las Vegas Aces have won three of the past four WNBA championships, and the other one went to the New York Liberty. But both teams now are in playoff peril, down 0-2 in their best-of-five semifinals series. They will try to keep their seasons alive Friday when they host Game 3s.
The Liberty face the Atlanta Dream (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) at Barclays Center. The Dream have won nine straight overall and four in a row against the Liberty, going back to the last week of the regular season. Atlanta won the first two games of this series 92-82 and 101-98 in overtime.
The Aces went 3-0 against the Golden State Valkyries in the regular season but are in danger of being swept in the semifinals. They hope to turn things around in Game 3 (9:30 p.m. ET) after losing 71-60 and 83-81 in San Francisco.
Atlanta has made three WNBA Finals appearances but was swept in each. Golden State, an expansion team in just its second season, lost in the first round last year.
The Aces’ A’ja Wilson (five MVPs) and the Liberty’s Breanna Stewart (two MVPs) are superstars used to winning championships. But they will need to pull their teams out of huge holes to have the chance to play for the 2026 title. No WNBA team has come back to win a best-of-five series after being down 0-2.
How can New York get a win Friday and keep its season alive?
Voepel: The Liberty have to hit the reset button, joke intended. That means getting Wednesday’s end-of-overtime chaos out of their heads. It’s understandable if they were irritated by the officials (and their own coaching staff) about the confusion on the reset timeout that the Liberty had but didn’t use. But even if they had taken it, there’s no guarantee they would have hit the tying 3-pointer or won in the second overtime.
Along with resetting, the Liberty have to hold on to the ball. Even with Atlanta guard Allisha Gray playing just 11 minutes of Game 1 and missing all of Game 2 because of a finger injury, the Dream have dictated pace and forced game-changing turnovers. Atlanta has scored 20-plus points off turnovers in all of its playoff games so far, becoming the first team in WNBA history to do that in four consecutive postseason games.
Copeland: Michael couldn’t be more right when it comes to the turnovers. It’s such a simple correlation. Too simple to be blamed alone, but it’s absolutely glaring. Game 1: 21 turnovers led to 32 points in a game the Liberty lost by 10. Game 2: 17 turnovers led to 28 points in a game they lost by three. Plus, a big turnover at the worst possible time.
The friendly confines of the Barclays Center should settle things down a bit, though a veteran-led squad wasn’t expected to let a road environment have that drastic of an effect. But this is an aggressive Dream defense that led the league in steals this season.
How can Las Vegas avoid elimination Friday?
Copeland: I thought the Aces’ experience and high-level of offensive playmaking would be able to neutralize the No. 1 defense in the league, but that hasn’t happened through 80 minutes. There’s one thing, though, that the Aces can’t have regardless of whether they’re playing the Valkyries or any other playoff team -- Jackie Young averaging 12.5 points. Now, this isn’t pointing the finger at Young; the Aces have had a lot of issues in this series, but she’s a five-time All-Star and two-time all-WNBA selection who was a top-10 scorer with a career-high 18.9 points per game in the regular season. Her unique ability as a three-level scorer is a huge reason the Aces have three titles. They’re just not the same dominant team when she’s shooting a combined 6-for-22 through two games.
Voepel: Let’s start with rebounding. Coach Becky Hammon thought that -- along with every other aspect of Las Vegas’ play -- was terrible in Game 1 as the Valkyries had a 52-25 edge on the boards. She said the Aces’ rebounding in Game 2 -- 30-25 for the Valkyries -- was better but not good enough.
The Aces (33.4 rebounds per game) and Valkyries (33.3) were almost identical in rebounding during the regular season. Of course, Las Vegas was affected by losing starting forward NaLyssa Smith (6.4 rebounds per game) to a knee injury Aug. 23.
What really stood out, especially in Game 1, was the Aces being beaten on “hustle” rebounds, as the Valkyries seemed to play harder. Golden State coach Natalie Nakase said she expected the Aces to play with a lot more aggression in Game 2, and they did.
But that leads to another problem for Las Vegas: shooting. The Aces shot 34% in Game 1 for a season-low 60 points. It was up to 44% for Game 2, but they struggled in the first quarter and trailed by 11 at halftime. The Aces expended a lot of energy just getting back into the game Wednesday, and even when they did, Golden State made enough big plays near the end to hold on to the victory.
There’s no doubt the Aces miss Smith and Jewell Loyd (leg), who was injured in Game 1. But if they want to keep their hopes alive for another title, they have to dictate pace, rebound, make shots and play with a sense of desperation.
How can Atlanta close out the series?
Voepel: Along with the aforementioned points they’ve scored off turnovers, the Dream have had balanced scoring in both games against New York. In the opener, four Atlanta players had at least 16 points, led by Jordin Canada’s 25. In Game 2, Canada and Angel Reese led six players in double figures with 23 points. Canada’s scoring is just one aspect of her impact; she has also totaled 12 assists and six steals against the Liberty. It might be tough for Atlanta to finish off a sweep in Brooklyn, especially if Gray is still unable to play. But the Dream have positioned themselves well to win the series even if it isn’t a sweep.
How can Golden State complete the sweep?
Copeland: Continue to find timely offensive help off the bench. The question going into the series was whether the Valkyries could generate enough offense. Then Aminata Gueye and Kaitlyn Chen combined for 20 points off the bench in Game 1 and Tiffany Hayes contributed 21 points, one shy of her 2026 regular-season high, off the bench in just 16 minutes in Game 2. The team’s depth is often discussed on the defensive end, but it has played a significant role throughout these playoffs.
Voepel: If you had a nickel for every time we’ve talked this season about Golden State’s defense, you would have yourself a nice little pile of change. But how can we not talk about it? Admittedly, the Aces’ three regular-season victories against the Valkyries came in May and June, when Las Vegas still had a healthy Smith. But after she was injured in the Aces’ Aug. 23 game, Las Vegas still won seven games in a row and eight of its last nine before facing Golden State. And then things came to a halt.
Hammon was disgusted by all aspects of the Aces’ effort in Game 1, but the Valkyries hounded them into that. A Golden State player might not have gotten the Defensive Player of the Year award, as that went to Atlanta’s Reese. But the Valkryies are the defensive team of the year, with players such as Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton able to guard a wide range of sizes and types of players throughout the game. Then there’s Kiah Stokes, who stood between Chelsea Gray and the potential tying basket in Game 2. Previously a valuable member of the Aces for her defense, she now does that for Golden State. And this is not to shortchange the rest of the Valkyries’ defenders, because as good as the sum of the parts are, the whole is even better. If they play Game 3 the same way, they could grab their spot in the Finals.