3rd And 1: Best Bets for CFL Week 17

‘In either game, life or football, the margin for error is so small… One half a step too late or too early and you don’t quite make it. One half second too slow, too fast, you don’t quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us. They’re in every break of the game, every minute, every second. On this team, we fight for that inch… Because we know that when we add up all those inches, that’s gonna make the (bleeping) difference between winning and losing.’

There’s more to Al Pacino’s pregame speech at the end of Oliver Stone’s Any Given Sunday but I’ll run through the wall if I listen to it one more time. The fight for inches only intensifies at the end of the season. Perhaps that’s why we were without week 17 player props until late. Due respect to the metric system, but should we start measuring in inches instead of yards? It’s a game of inches.

Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Future hall of famer Stanley Bryant says he doesn’t expect a dropoff when Dru Brown starts in place of Zach Collaros against the Argos. The 16-year veteran will play a big role in any success his backup quarterback will have while Collaros is on the injured list. The Bombers were 2-2 with Brown under centre in July. One of his wins was against the Redblacks, the other was at home against the Argos, just like this one. Winnipeg won by nine, they held the Argos to 21 points, and they did it without an interception from Chad Kelly. Kelly is turning it over more than anyone has in a decade and a half, but the Argos are winning games. They’re coming off a victory against the West-leading Elks last week, they’ve won three in a row, and are 6-2 since the end of July. During that stretch, the biggest difference is the defence. They’ve held opponents to 28 points or fewer in four straight games. They limited the third highest scoring team in the league to 19 points last week thanks to two crucial red zone interceptions. The ‘inches’ might matter more to the Bombers. The Argos locked into the second spot in the East while Winnipeg is fighting for their playoff lives. But at this stage of the season, with their current personnel, I think the Argos are the better team.

THE PICK: ARGONAUTS moneyline (-118)

BONUS PICK: UNDER 57.5 total points

Chad Kelly’s propensity to throw picks is well documented. But Dru Brown has thrown interceptions at almost the same rate, albeit in a smaller sample size. Brown has five picks in his four starts this season. The Bombers offence wasn’t great to begin with, and it will take a step back with Brown. They will rely heavily on Brady Oliveira to run the ball, and the clock. The Argos are good against the ground game, especially of late. For that reason, the offence hasn’t been forced to score 40 points. They’re also up against a Bombers defence that is allowing the third fewest points per game this season.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at BC Lions

Easily the game of the week and it will go a long way to determining second place in the West. The Lions finally have a winning record after starting the season with one victory in their first six games. Nathan Rourke has returned to MOP form. The defence is the best in the league after allowing an average of almost 38 points a game through the first four weeks. Interestingly, they’re middle of the pack in terms of points for and against, but they’re first in yards gained and yards allowed. Since that dreadful start, they’re challenging the Alouettes, in the eye test anyway, for best team in the league. That’s why they’re favoured by more than a field goal against the defending Grey Cup champs. The Riders have had a rough few weeks by their standards, but they’re expecting reinforcements. Kian Schaffer-Baker is back after being out since week 9. He’s averaging over 100 receiving yards a game. AJ Ouellette’s style set the tone in last year’s playoffs. He’ll force the Lions to earn their number one ranking against the run. This has all the makings of a late-season classic. I’d be surprised if it was settled my more than three points.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS +3.5

Calgary Stampeders at Ottawa Redblacks

Last week’s loss was undoubtedly the most painful of the Redbalcks 13 defeats this season. Rene Paredes kicked a walk-off 62-yarder to win it by two, meaning a missed kick would have given Ottawa its first win in over a year. Paredes is 41 years old, in his 15^th CFL season and that was the longest kick of his career by 5 yards. Ouch. Ottawa is closing in on its first victory, but I can’t back a winless team getting only 2.5 points.

THE PICK: NO PICK

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Elks

Two weeks in a row the Ti-Cats have had to face a top team with a chip on their shoulder. Nothing Hamilton did to deserve the added intensity from their opponent, just terrible timing. They were blown out by the Als last week who were embarrassed the week before by the Lions. It was the Ti-Cats fourth straight loss, including three by double digits. Edmonton should be similarly fired up after their loss last week in Toronto. If Mark Killam’s reaction to Cody Fajardo’s game-ending interception (his second in the red zone) is any indication, the Elks will be ornery.

THE PICK: ELKS -7.5