| Record | Last Week | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Game Picks | 3-0 | 9-3 |
| Player Props | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Overall | 4-0 | 12-5 |
Rod Smith didn’t need a replay to see it from the TSN broadcast booth at Percival Molson Stadium last Saturday. Davis Alexander made an all-too-familiar motion early in the 4th quarter against the Stamps.
“Looked like he put his left hand on his hamstring just before he threw it away… enough to make anybody gasp if they remember what he went through last year.”
The Als QB and MOP favourite missed 10 games last season with a hamstring injury, only to re-aggravate it in the Grey Cup. He still nearly won that game on one leg.
Alexander was checked out on the sideline but still managed to finish Saturday’s game. The Als say they’re not concerned about the incident, but there can’t be any certainty about Alexander’s status until Saturday morning’s depth charts are released. The Als are a road favourite in Calgary, suggesting they’ll have their starter, but there isn’t a passing prop for Alexander at FanDuel. Without assurances about Alexander’s availability, I’ll take a wait-and-see approach. After all, I steered clear of this matchup last week before going 4-0. Let’s go!
BC Lions at Edmonton Elks
The Lions earned a much-needed win over the Elks two weeks ago. It was their first victory of the season, and Edmonton’s only loss. Ordinarily, I’d give the edge to the previously undefeated team with payback on their minds in a rematch at home. However, the Lions have had a week off since then, while the Elks had to host the Redblacks, even if the game wasn’t that taxing.
The Lions also laid a blueprint for how to beat the Elks. They got an early lead, limited Justin Rankin in the running game, and forced Cody Fajardo to turn it over.
BC’s defence has been disappointing. They’re last in the league with four sacks, three fewer than any other team, and they’re allowing almost 7.5 yards per play. Now for the positive. The Lions have the best run defence in the league. They limited Rankin to just 19 yards two weeks, by far his fewest in any game this season. He still had 100 receiving yards and the Lions should be happy to give him that again, if it means his rushing attempts are in single digits. This line has fluctuated between 2.5 and 3.5 all week. I envision a close game, so I’ll pay for the extra point.
THE PICK: Lions +3.5 Alt Spread (-136)
Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Before the critique of Jake Dolegala could gain traction, Kiondre Smith defended his quarterback after last week’s blowout loss to the Riders. Smith said the receivers need do a better job. There were drops, but Bo Levi’s backup finished with 17 completions on 30 attempts for just 122 yards and an interception against his former team. Hamilton’s defence held Saskatchewan to just ten points until late in the third quarter, but the wheels fell off in the fourth. Tre Ford entered the game late, but until either quarterback can show any sustained success, it’ll be tough to back the Tabbies. Even against the Argos struggling defence, I don’t see how Hamilton keeps pace with Chad Kelly and company.
THE PICK: Argonauts -4.5
PLAYER PROP: Larry Rountree III Under 71.5 Rushing Yards
The Ti-Cats rookie running back has gone over this number just once this season, and it came while milking the clock with a lead against the Bombers in Week 2. Roundtree also had a rushing prop in the seventies last week but finished with 36 yards on 9 carries. If Tre Ford sees extended time, Rountree would benefit from the dual backfield threat. We saw that be a problem for defences with Ford and Rankin in Edmonton over the last two years. But until Ford plays meaningful minutes, or Dolegala starts slicing and dicing defences, I don’t expect Hamilton to be in position to run the ball. Also, the Argos may be one of the league’s worst defences overall, but they’re second best against opposing running backs.
